URUGUAY: ELECTION RESULTS SHOW INTERNAL PARTY SHIFTS

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000648

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAY: ELECTION RESULTS SHOW INTERNAL PARTY SHIFTS


1. (U) Summary. Uruguay's October 2009 presidential and
legislative elections represented a historic change for all three
major national political parties in regards to their internal
dynamics. Within the incumbent Frente Amplio (FA) coalition, the
elections reinforced the predominance of leading presidential
candidate Jose Mujica's Movement for Popular Participation (MPP),
which achieved notable gains in Parliament in addition to its
candidate's strong position in the presidential race. In the
National Party (Blancos),October's legislative elections
demonstrated the resurgence of Luis Alberto Lacalle's sector Unidad
Nacional at the expense of running mate Jorge Larranaga's Alianza
Nacional, while gains by Pedro Bordaberry's Vamos Uruguay faction
ushered in a new era of leadership in the Colorado Party. End
Summary.



Elections Reinforce Mujica's Predominance in Frente Amplio
Coalition

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2. (U) With its retention of a parliamentary majority and a
presidential candidate well-positioned for victory in November, the
Frente Amplio remains the predominant force in Uruguayan politics.
However, in the past five years, public support for the FA has
diminished slightly, with Mujica unable to win the outright October
victory that Tabare Vazquez was able to claim in 2004. In addition,
shifts in the FA's internal power structure have favored more
radical parties within the coalition, particularly the MPP, which
was founded by former Tupamaro guerrillas (including Mujica) in
1985 and is currently the largest party within the Frente Amplio.




3. (U) The growing predominance of the MPP was indicated by
Mujica's victory over former Finance Minister Danilo Astori in
June's internal elections. (Astori was named Mujica's running mate
shortly after the internal elections.) This advantage was further
reinforced by October's parliamentary elections, in which Mujica's
Espacio 609 list (which includes the MPP and is now led by Mujica's
wife Senator Lucia Topolansky) demonstrated considerable gains
within the coalition relative to previous contests.




4. (U) Prior to 2009, parliamentary elections favored more
moderate parties within the FA, including the Socialist Party,
Astori's Asamblea Uruguay faction, and the Vertiente Artiguista,
Alianza Progresista, and Nuevo Espacio factions. The 2004 elections
gave the advantage to these moderate parties in both houses, as
they claimed a three seat (10 seats to seven) margin over Espacio
609 plus the radical Communist and CAP-Libertad parties in the
Senate and a four seat (28 to 24) advantage in the Congress of
Deputies. This balance changed dramatically in October 2009, as
these radical parties gained a 10 seat (30 to 20) lead in the
Congress, while the two groups reached parity (eight to eight) in
the Senate.



Lacalle Gains, Larranaga Loses in National Party

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5. (U) Similar to the Frente Amplio, the National Party also
experienced internal power shifts that favored the faction of its
presidential candidate, Luis Alberto Lacalle, while taking away
support from its vice presidential candidate, Jorge Larranaga.
This gain can be primarily attributed to the 2008 creation of
Unidad Nacional, a Lacalle-led coalition that fused Lacalle's
Herrerismo faction with Francisco Gallinal's Correntada Wilsonista
faction.




6. (U) The results of the 2009 elections demonstrated the crucial
role Gallinal's support played in Lacalle's struggle for control
over the party. Whereas Larranaga's Alianza Nacional group held a
6-3 advantage over Herrerismo in the Senate and a 23-6 margin over
Herrerismo in the Congress after the 2004 elections, the 2009
elections gave Unidad Nacional a 5-4 advantage over Alianza
Nacional in the Senate and a 19-10 lead in the Congress, with
former Correntada Wilsonista legislators representing much of the
difference.

Bordaberry Cements Control over Colorados

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7. (U) Perhaps the most dramatic transformation has occurred
within the Colorado Party. Former Uruguayan presidents Julio
Maria Sanguinetti and Jorge Batlle handed over the reins to Pedro
Bordaberry, leading to a rejuvenation of the party in October's
elections, with an 80 percent increase on its 2004 vote totals.
This generational changing of the guard has been accompanied by a
drastic shift in the Colorado Party's internal structure, as
Bordaberry's Vamos Uruguay faction, despite having only been
founded last year, has achieved dominance over the party. In
October, Vamos Uruguay won 14 of 17 Colorado seats in Congress and
3 of the party's 5 Senate seats; the Colorados' remaining seats
went to Jose Gerardo Amorin Batlle's Propuesta Batllista.



Comment

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8. (SBU) These shifts in internal party dynamics can already be
seen as having an impact on the distribution of public support
among the three parties, as reflected in the results of October's
elections. While the FA and the National Party remain the two
leading forces in Uruguayan politics, they are drifting from the
center, as the FA turns leftward with the growth of the MPP, and
the Blancos move to the right with the resurgence of Lacalle and
the decline of the more moderate Larranaga. The Colorado Party was
able to exploit this polarized environment in October by occupying
the vacuum in the center of the political spectrum and by
presenting Bordaberry as a candidate of the future, uninterested in
the decades-old political struggles between left and right as
personified by Mujica and Lacalle.
MATTHEWMAN