URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: MUJICA ON TOP WITH TOUGH RUNOFF

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000608

DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: MUJICA ON TOP WITH TOUGH RUNOFF
ON HORIZON

SUMMARY
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1. (U) Jose Mujica of the ruling Frente Amplio coalition (FA)
and Luis Alberto Lacalle of the National Party (Blancos) will
face off for the presidency in a November 29 runoff, after
neither candidate was able to capture 50 percent of the vote
in national elections October 25. With 98.5 percent of the
votes counted, Mujica claimed 47.5 percent of the vote, while
Lacalle finished in second with between 28.5 percent.
Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordaberry surprised many by
gaining 16.6 percent of the vote, significantly boosting that
party's representation in Parliament. With the final counts
still pending the day after the vote, it appears that the FA
will fall just short of a parliamentary majority. Mujica is
in a strong position to win in November, but National Party
supporters are encouraged by the results, as projections show
they will be supported by most Colorado voters, which could
put them back in the game. END SUMMARY.

MUJICA LEADS, LACALLE IN SECOND
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2. (U) Former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose Mujica and the Frente
Amplio coalition claimed between 47.5 percent of the vote in
SundayQs elections, with former President Luis Alberto
LacalleQs National Party finishing in second with 28.5
percent. As neither candidate was able to surpass the
threshold of 50 percent of the electorate plus one vote, a
runoff will be held between Mujica and Lacalle on November 29.


3. (U) The Colorado Party is considered the big winner,
pulling in nearly 16.6 percent Q more than 60 percent gain
over the 2004 elections, which demonstrates the partyQs
remarkable renewal under new leader Pedro Bordaberry.
BordaberryQs celebratory speech included a declaration of his
intent to vote for Lacalle in the runoff based on his belief
that this decision would be Qbest for Uruguay.Q Colorado
voters were already expected to vote for Lacalle in November,
but this announcement is a sign that Bordaberry will do his
upmost to help Lacalle win.


4. (U) The Independent Party made a positive showing with 2.4
percent, but failed to receive enough votes to have
representation in the Senate. Despite this blow, Independent
Party voters will play a key role in determining the next
president, since, based on current levels of support, the FA
only needs another 2.5 percent of the vote to win in November.


5. (U) The FA support roughly met the expectations of most
pollsters, who had reported a 44-45 percent intention to vote
and had predicted the Frente would get a few more points from
the undecideds. Analysts also predicted the National Party
would receive about 30 percent. As anticipated, the FA won by
a substantial margin in Montevideo and the neighboring
department of Canelones. The FA gained the highest number of
votes in most of the departments bordering Argentina,
including Blanco vice presidential candidate Jorge LarranagaQs
home turf, Paysandu. The Colorado showing in the interior was
significant, however, with the party pulling in 20-30 percent
in some departments. Because of this, Lacalle will go into
the runoff with an advantage in the interior.


6. (U) Following the release of the unofficial results,
supporters of the major parties convened in three different
areas of Montevideo. Mujica spoke to a crowd of thousands of
FA supporters gathered outside the NH Columbia hotel in a
carnival-like atmosphere, clogging the main road along the Rio
de la Plata. Despite their strong showing, Mujica and
running-mate Astori didn't wear winners' grins during their
addresses to the thousands of FA supporters in the streets;
they were unable to hide their disappointment with the failure
to win in the first round and the possible loss of the
parliamentary majority.


7. (U) Lacalle later addressed a smaller group of National
Party members occupying a corner of a plaza in the historical
center of Montevideo. The Colorado Party celebrated in its
traditional headquarters - an antique building which, filled
with young party faithful, mirrored the Colorado PartyQs
current image of an old party buoyed by new ideas.

PARLIAMENT EVENLY SPLIT
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8. (U) The makeup of the Parliament is still unknown, but the
FA appears to be on the brink of losing the absolute majority
it has enjoyed for the past five years. Currently, the FA is
projected to win 15 out of 30 seats in the Senate and 49 out


of 99 seats in the Congress of Deputies. The National Party
will have 9-10 Senate seats and 29-30 spots in Congress while
the Colorado Party claimed 5-6 seats in the Senate and
approximately 18 seats in the lower house. Both Mujica and
Lacalle have pledged to reach across the aisle, and coalitions
will likely begin to form in the weeks to come.

BOTH REFERENDA FAIL
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9. (U) Voters also rejected a controversial referendum
annulling a law known as the Ley de Caducidad (the Expiry
Law),which guaranteed amnesty for those accused of human
rights abuses during the dictatorship. A second referendum
allowing the Uruguayan diaspora to vote from outside the
country also failed, receiving only 38 percent support. This
was an unexpected outcome, as pollsters projected a much
closer result with polls indicating 48 percent support. The
failure of the referenda served as a disappointment to many
Frente Amplio supporters who had supported the measures. In
reference to the absentee voting referendum, Mujica lamented
that voters didnQt want to allow their compatriots living
outside the country equal opportunity to vote, but noted that
the government would always respect the will of the people.

ATMOSPHERICS
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10. (U) The elections proceeded smoothly, with an estimated 90
percent turnout and almost no complaints about irregularities.
Frente Amplio activists enthusiastically dominated the streets
of Montevideo.


COMMENT
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11. (SBU) Interestingly, although MujicaQs vote count should
put him in a strong position to triumph in November, most
Uruguayans view the result as a slowing of his (and his
partyQs) momentum. The unpleasant reality is that Mujica did
worse than Vazquez five years before, despite the FrenteQs
successful first term in office. The National Party is hoping
that, with BordaberryQs help in a head-to-head contest,
Lacalle will convince the electorate that he is best suited to
govern and to represent Uruguay abroad. At this point, we
expect it to be a tough fight. End Comment.

MATTHEWMAN