Uruguayan Elections: Counting Down to October 25

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000595

DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY
SUBJECT: Uruguayan Elections: Counting Down to October 25

REF: A. MONTEVIDEO 560, B. MONTEVIDEO 409 AND PREVIOUS, C.
MONTEVIDEO 298

Summary
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1. (U) With Uruguayans voting October 25, local polling
indicates that the two leading presidential candidates are
running in place or even losing ground. A second round seems
likely, as neither ruling Frente Amplio coalition candidate
Jose Mujica nor National Party candidate Luis Lacalle appears
likely to receive the fifty percent plus one required to win
Uruguay's presidency in a first round. This election is
significant even if a second round is necessary, however, as
each partyQs respective share of the vote will determine the
balance of power in parliament for the duration for the next
administration. END SUMMARY.

HOW THE NUMBERS LOOK
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2. (U) As the October 25 election looms, the majority of
polling on the respective fortunes of the leading parties
appears to have settled on a ruling Frente Amplio coalition
(FA) vote of around 43-45 percent, with the main opposition
National Party total of around 29-31 percent. The National
Party figures are down from a height of 38 percent in June.
Curiously, the number of persons claiming to be undecided or
willing to cast blank votes is rising as the campaigns close,
and is now around 10-12 percent. Both the third-place
Colorado party and fourth-place Independent Party are
performing better than many analysts had predicted earlier in
the campaign, with totals of 13-15 percent and 3 percent,
respectively. Although a spokesman for the polling company
Cifra opined that it is still possible for Mujica to win in
the first round, most analysts believe the FA is unlikely to
secure over 50 percent, the minimum necessary to avoid a run-
off scenario. While some second round predictions have been
carried out (with Mujica ahead in some and Lacalle in others),
polling for such a scenario has not yet been systematic enough
to identify a definite trend. Most observers feel that, in a
run-off, National Party candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle will be
the beneficiary of a large percentage of votes that go to the
Colorado or Independent parties in the first round.

SELF-INFLICTED WOUNDS AND POTSHOTS
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3. (SBU) This race for the presidency has focused more on
character and personality and less on issues then many
Uruguayans had hoped. It has also been defined by a number of
self-inflicted injuries. The media and public alike have
focused on the variety of slip-ups, fumbles and gaffes on
display over the duration of the campaign. This has been
particularly surprising in the case of Lacalle, an ex-
president and highly experienced politician who appeared to
squander a strong start with some highly divisive statements
that were gleefully seized upon by the opposition. Whether
declaring he was going to take a chainsaw to public spending,
recommending the poor shower more regularly, or labeling the
impoverished beneficiaries of the government social support
scheme Qscroungers,Q he has seemed at best careless.


4. (U) MujicaQs less-refined reputation has, to an extent,
prevented his gaffes from generating much fall-out. Still,
his mishaps have not been without cost. Musings on the
justice of his own guerilla past and suggestions that the land
belongs to the state have both caused consternation, but
MuijcaQs most dramatic faux pas was the recent publication of
interviews (Reftel A)in which he appeared to blast both his
own party and the Argentine government. The resulting
embarrassment did nothing to help the already fractious
relationship between Mujica and current president Vazquez, who
during a visit to the U.S. characterized Mujica's comments as
"stupidities." Mujica subsequently absented himself from from
several high profile government events, most noticeably the
recent opening of MontevideoQs new airport and, on another
occasion, a new port terminal.

THE OUTLOOK IN PARLIAMENT
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5. (SBU) Although most of the local media attention is focused
on the fight for the presidency, the October 25 vote is much
more than just the first round of a race for the top job. The
votes obtained decide the make-up of the next parliament
regardless of which partyQs candidate heads the executive
office. Presently, the FA enjoys an overall majority in the
general assembly of 53 percent, but if the recent polling
figures were to become a parliamentary reality, no one party
would have an absolute majority in parliament. In such a
situation, smaller parties such as the Colorados and the
Independent party would gain importance.


6. (U) A less likely alternative could see the FA failing to
gain the over fifty percent majority required to avoid a run-
off but still clinch an absolute parliamentary majority. This
seemingly contradictory outcome rests on the fact that while
the presidential vote is calculated according to the number of
recorded voters (i.e. it includes blank and annulled ballots),
the parliamentary vote is calculated according to the number
of legitimate votes actually returned (i.e. blank or annulled
ballots donQt count). Given the current closeness of the
race, a couple of percentage pointsQ worth of blank or
annulled ballots could make a real difference. One political
analyst, assuming a blank/annulled vote of around 2.5 percent,
calculates that FA could actually score a parliamentary
majority if they reach 48.8 percent in the first round. While
such a scenario would make life easier for a Muijca
administration, it also leaves open the possibility of a
Lacalle presidency attempting to operate with a FA
parliamentary majority.


7. (SBU) October 25 not only decides the division of power
between the parties but also between the factions within them.
With polling generally focused on the big picture, the
internal political landscape is harder to predict. For the
FA, much depends on whether MujicaQs MPP (Popular Movement
Party) faction maintains or increases its one-third share of
FA seats. With the FA coalition already under strain, a shift
in the power balance might further expose cracks that could
widen after the election, irrespective as to who holds the
presidency. In the case of the National Party, ex-rivals
Lacalle and Larranaga have put on a good show of solidarity
during the campaign (Reftel B),and while Lacalle will head
the party no matter who wins, LarrangaQs more moderate profile
may enable him to attract more votes. His Alianza National
(National Alliance) faction already holds over twice the
number of seats as LacalleQs Unidad National (National Unity)
faction and, if the National Party candidates were to lose in
their presidential bid, Larranaga, who is younger than Lacalle
and still has presidential ambitions, may not expend too much
energy on preserving a good relationship.

THE REFERENDA
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8. (U) Also of interest on October 25 is the outcome of two
public referenda. One will decide whether to repeal Uruguay's
amnesty law (Ley de Caducidad Q reftel C) that protects police
and military personal from prosecution for acts committed
under the auspices of the dictatorship, and the other on
whether to allow an absentee vote (by mail) for Uruguayan
expatriates. The FA, whose ranks contain many ex-Tupamaro
guerilla fighters and which also stands to gain more from
absentee voting, is broadly pro both referenda, while the
traditional parties are broadly against them. Despite support
for these issues dividing more-or-less on party lines however,
neither issue has played a significant role in the campaigns
and, unlike the election proper, citizens are not legally
obliged to participate. Polling on both the referenda has
been close, indicating an uncertain outcome for both
referenda.

COMMENT
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9. (U) When the FA won its first-ever presidential election in
2004, polling showed FA candidate (now president) Tabare
Vazquez making a late surge that allowed him to close just
over fifty percent. We have not seen a similar surge from
Mujica, so the temptation is to predict a second round.
However, this is the first election with the FA in the
incumbent's role after generations of traditional party
dominance, and no one can confidently predict how much of
Vazquez's considerable popularity and proven achievements will
benefit Mujica. END COMMENT.