URUGUAY: BORDABERRY: LOOKING FAR BEYOND OCTOBER 25

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000592

DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAY: BORDABERRY: LOOKING FAR BEYOND OCTOBER 25

REF: MONTEVIDEO 314


1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not
for Internet distribution.

SUMMARY
- - - -


2. (U) With the electoral coverage mostly focused on
frontrunners Luis Alberto Lacalle and Jose Mujica, the
presidential electionQs third place contender, Colorado Party
candidate Pedro Bordaberry, is taking the longer view. Aware
that a shot at the presidency is highly unlikely at this
juncture, Bordaberry has instead made productive use of the
electoral season to stand the Colorados back on their feet
following their shattering electoral defeat in 2004. In a
well-organized, disciplined and focused campaign, Bordaberry
has largely succeeded in presenting the Colorado as a
renovated and politically engaged party equipped with a
forward thinking program. The party appears not only
confident that it can reclaim many of the votes lost to the
Frente Amplio (FA) coalition and National (Blanco) party in
the last election, but is also hopeful that it will be able to
reach out to younger voters. With Mujica and Lacalle locked
in a relatively tight and increasingly bitter race for the
finish line, and with a second round likely, the political
value of BordaberryQs relatively modest share of the vote
continues to swell. Bordaberry is optimistic that careful
management of this advantage will enable him to reposition the
Colorados for a possible 2014 presidential bid. END SUMMARY.

REBUILDING THE PARTY
--------------


3. (SBU) As the two main presidential candidates stagger to a
likely second round with their hands around each others
throats, Colorado Pedro Bordaberry appears to be the only
candidate actively gaining support. While BordaberryQs recent
rallying call that it would be Qgreat to win in the second
half of the match with 47 minutes on the clockQ is not a
serious expression of his chances (the Colorados currently
command only 12 percent of the vote),it nevertheless
indicates a sense of revival that appears to have life beyond
political rhetoric. Until recently however the notion of the
Colorado recovery was very much open to question; once the
countryQs dominant political force, the Colorados ran Uruguay
for much of the 20th century but were all but obliterated in
2004 when they returned just 10 percent of the vote. The
fallout was profound, much of the party machinery collapsed
and the Colorados, already riven by lengthy and destructive
power struggle between two aging party patriarchs, 73 year old
Julio Mara Sanguinetti and 81 year old Jorge Batlle,
continued to hemorrhage support. Over the last two years
however, Bordaberry and his QVamos UruguayQ (LetQs Go Uruguay)
faction, have forged a Qnew centralismQ (reftel) which has
arrested partyQs decline and appears to offer the real promise
of long-term political rehabilitation.

THE YOUNG MAN FOR THE JOB
--------------


4. (SBU) Bordaberry is very much the Colorados young lion.
His confident, skilled and forward thinking leadership has
enabled him to overcome the negative associations of his
surname (his father's presidency led directly to Uruguay's
1973-85 dictatorship) and begin the process of reuniting his
party. In contrast to the array of gaffs, embarrassments and
bickering that have characterized much of his rivals
campaigns, Bordaberry has headed an orderly, sober but
imaginative operation that has seen him generate a gradual but
steady amount of support. There have been two main targets
for BordaberryQs campaign. First those voters, once loyal to
the Colorado cause, who shifted to the FA or Blancos in the
last election. By presenting the Colorados as a politically
viable entity again, Bordaberry plans to encourage them return
to the fold, a hope made explicit by recent Colorado publicity
centered on the notion of Qvotes coming home.Q The second
target audience is young voters. A legacy of the ColoradoQs
near collapse is that the partyQs demographic has aged while
younger voters have been drawn to the FA and Blancos. As an
energetic 49 year-old, Bordaberry offers a sprightly contrast
to the 74 year-old Mujica and the 68 year-old Lacalle. Far
from playing off the ColoradoQs heritage of almost constant
political dominance, Bordaberry has instead presented himself
as the new wave candidate, claiming that although this is the
FrenteQs first term in office, their aging leadership
represents not the beginning of a political project but the
end of a political generation. BordaberryQs bid for the youth
was made explicit with smart selection of the wisely admired
soccer star, Hugo de Leon as his running mate.


A MAN WITH A PLAN
--------------


5. (SBU) With sustained long-term political growth in mind,
Bordaberry has angled his campaign to present himself as a
serious policy-centered candidate. He has proudly underlined
this ambition with a 250-page government program, prepared
over two and a half years by numerous political experts. It
is not only the weight and depth of the tome that sets the
program apart, but also the artful positioning of education
right at the front of the agenda. With the FA and Blancos
currently locking horns over public security and social
programs, this has allowed Bordaberry to stake out political
territory that is not only under populated but also adroitly
focused on long term development. In harmony with this
forward-thinking strategic approach, Bordaberry used a recent
speech to turn around the common observation that Uruguay is a
small entity surrounded on both sides by giants:
acknowledging Brazil as a neighboring power-house, he
described the relationship as one of opportunity allowing
Uruguay to shape regional politics for its own benefit.


ELECTION PROSPECTS
--------------


6. (SBU) While the Colorado campaign is nominally being run
under the auspices of a presidential bid, in reality
BordaberryQs is focusing firmly on increasing the Colorado
presence in Parliament. Current polling figures suggest that
whoever wins the election, voting will be tight enough to
create a parliament in which no party has a clear majority,
circumstances that would offer a party with even relatively
modest presence a good deal of high-profile political leverage.
Accordingly, recent Colorado publicity has sought to maximize
his political capital by recalibrating the Colorado effort
around the notion of Qputting a good team in parliament.Q This
emphasizes the fact that although a vote for the Colorados
will not put Bordaberry in the top job, it remains
nevertheless a politically potent choice, capable of having a
direct influence on government policy.


7. (SBU) By capturing some of the undecided voters, Bordaberry
and his team are shooting for at least 15-16 percent of the
vote on October 25. Irrespective of the final tally however,
it seems likely that Bordaberry will reap an improvement on
the Colorados meager 2004 electoral haul. It is also likely
that of the three Colorado lists in play for Senator and
Deputy seats, his list will get the largest amount of support
and Bordaberry will become senator. Old guard Colorados
Sanguinetti and Batlle have joined forces to field a list
headed by their men Luis Amorin Batlle (a cousin) and Tabere
Viera and are likely to attract a fair amount of votes. The
third list, headed by Alberto Iglesias may feature as an also
ran. Aside from generally increasing Colorado presence in
parliament, a strong showing by BordaberryQs faction (he is
counting on over 50 percent of the Colorado vote) would cement
his position as party leader and finally relegate Batlle and
Sanguinetti to the roles of respected, but retired party
elders.

THE SECOND ROUND AND BEYOND
--------------


8. (SBU) It is generally assumed that in the case of a run-off
election, any political advantage the Colorados can glean
would accrue to the BlancosQ favor. While this will probably
prove to be the case, Bordaberry has nevertheless been working
hard to present the Colorado party as a wholly independent
entity. He has maintained a more-or-less nonpartisan profile
in public; complaining that LacalleQs and MujicaQs recent
conduct has insulted the electorate and calling for an end to
ideological conflict. After the October 25 round Bordaberry
has signaled that his overwhelming interest is in influencing
policy, particularly in the areas of education, security and
social development, areas in which he believes his program has
well developed contributions to make. Reaching a satisfactory
agreement with Lacalle in these areas would likely allow
Bordaberry to support Lacalle strongly in a run-off.

COMMENT
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9. (SBU). Unlike his rivals in the campaign, Bordaberry has
studiously avoided political missteps, and has managed to
maintain a clean political image despite the burden of the
Bordaberry name and efforts to drag him down. A mixture of
political skill and fortuitous circumstance has left
Bordaberry in a potentially strong position which, if
consolidated, could form a platform for future growth and (he
hopes) see him emerge as a very real contender in 2014. End
Comment.