Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MONTEVIDEO434
2009-07-24 13:40:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Montevideo
Cable title:  

URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: PARTIES STRATEGIZE AS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL UY 
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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0434/01 2051340
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241340Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9243
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000434 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC - MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: PARTIES STRATEGIZE AS
CAMPAIGN HEATS UP

REF: MONTEVIDEO 411

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000434

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC - MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAYAN ELECTIONS: PARTIES STRATEGIZE AS
CAMPAIGN HEATS UP

REF: MONTEVIDEO 411


1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not
for Internet distribution.

Summary
--------------


2. (U) With the internal elections behind them, both the
incumbent Frente Amplio (FA) and the opposition National
Party (Blancos) have begun to devise the strategies that they
hope will lead them to victory in the October elections. The
FA is playing up its traditional role as the leftist
opposition to the historically monolithic party system, while
working to leverage the popularity of incumbent President
Tabare Vazquez. In contrast, the rhetoric of the opposition
is aimed directly at FA candidate Jose "Pepe" Mujica, as the
Blancos work to raise doubts in the minds of Uruguayan voters
over his tendencies toward inconsistency. End Summary.

The Frente Amplio: A Call for Both Change and Continuity
-------------- --------------


3. (U) As a coalition of parties that has achieved steady
gains against the traditional Colorado and National parties
over the past several elections, the Frente Amplio now finds
itself in unfamiliar territory: a presidential campaign in
which they are the incumbent party. Further complicating
matters is the fact that popular President Tabare Vazquez is
ineligible for a second term, with the FA's future now in the
hands of former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose "Pepe" Mujica
(reftel). Correspondingly, the party faces a unique
challenge: it must continue to appeal to the core voters that
supported its prior campaigns to completely transform the
political system, while stalwartly defending the status quo
by promising continuity between Vazquez's policies and those
of a Mujica administration.


4. (U) In order to achieve this objective, Mujica and his
running mate, former Finance Minister Danilo Astori, have
assumed diverging roles on the campaign trail, with both
candidates on the offensive following a week of attacks by
the Blancos. Mujica has taken up the part of the traditional
Frente Amplio militant, portraying the movement as an agent
of change due to its roots in what the FA characterizes as
the failure of the traditional two-party system. Included in
this message is an outcry against the "clientelism" of the
Blancos - a thinly-veiled reference to allegations of

corruption during Blanco candidate Luis Alberto Lacalle's
1990-1995 term as president. Mujica's speeches have also
been punctuated with the rhetoric of militancy, as he has
exhorted fellow party members to become "agitators" to draw
in undecided voters. Above all, Mujica's central theme is an
appeal to the common man: as he told one friendly audience,
"Lacalle belongs to the upper class; I'm like you." As his
wife, Senator Lucia Topolansky, recently divulged in a
television interview, Mujica has even requested that he not
receive a salary as President, asking that the money be
donated instead.


5. (U) While Mujica's rhetoric reminds audiences of the
historical mission of the FA, his running mate's emphasis has
been on the economic success of the Vazquez administration,
citing positive statistics of foreign investment and growth
over the past five years. Astori has also contrasted the
boom under Vazquez with the failures of Lacalle, who
"committed terrible errors of political economy" while
president, according to Astori. According to the media,
Mujica hopes to exploit the credibility Astori gives the team
on economic issues by giving Astori free rein in the economic
policy realm.


6. (U) For his part, President Vazquez has been active in
defending his legacy and in leveraging his considerable
popularity (a 61% favorable rating, according to the pollster
Equipos Mori) in support of the FA ticket. At a recent
dinner (also attended by Lacalle) honoring a former
President, Vazquez argued that the country is "getting a
little better every day" thanks to the policies of the FA
government. Vazquez also plans to campaign within the
interior of the country - the traditional stronghold of the
Blancos, and an area in which the president is likely to have
more success than Mujica due to his more moderate image.


The Blancos: Raising Fears About Mujica
--------------


7. (SBU) Following their surprise "victory" over the FA in
the internal elections (reftel),Lacalle and his running

mate, Jorge Larranaga, have attempted to frame the election
as a referendum on Jose Mujica, in an attempt to raise
concerns in the minds of Uruguayan voters about the direction
in which the former Tupamaro guerrilla would take the country
both economically and politically. As reported in reftel,
Lacalle began the general campaign by insinuating that Mujica
not only would endanger potential foreign investment in
Uruguay, but also that his plans to reform the constitution
could include a constituent assembly process like that
endorsed by Hugo Chavez. Lacalle has also sowed fears about
Mujica's propensity to overspend, while promoting his own
neoliberal credentials. Last week, Lacalle insisted that, if
elected president, he would cut spending "with a buzzsaw",
prompting retorts from Vazquez administration officials that
Lacalle would eliminate key social programs.


9. (U) Blanco politicians have also focused on the perceived
division between Mujica and Astori, with Blanco Senator
Francisco Gallinal telling one newspaper that the Vice
Presidential candidate's ego was "wounded and bleeding"
following his second-place finish. Although Astori appeared
more dutiful than enthusiastic when accepting the Vice
Presidential nomination, he has campaigned with increased
enthusiasm in recent days, and has fended off these attempts
to divide him from Mujica by emphasizing the ideological
unity of the ticket.


10. (SBU) While the Blancos took the offensive in the first
few days following the internal elections, Lacalle and
Larranaga have chosen not to respond to the FA's most recent
comments, claiming that they are more comfortable engaging in
debate over issues rather than in personal attacks. Another
possible explanation for this silence is that the Blancos are
distracted by internal housekeeping, with Lacalle and
Larranaga working to consolidate the lists of candidates for
Senate within their respective party factions.

The Colorados: Sports Hero for VP
--------------


11. (SBU) Pedro Bordaberry, the once-mighty but now
cellar-dwelling Colorado Party's candidate for president, has
remained relatively silent during much of the recent
politicking, recently declaring that he would avoid alliances
with either the FA or the Blancos at this stage of the
campaign. However, in the same announcement, he expressed
misgivings similar to those of Lacalle concerning the
possibility of a constituent assembly in a Mujica
administration, indicating that his sympathies hew closer to
the Blanco ticket than to the FA.


12. (U) Bordaberry announced Hugo de Leon, a former soccer
star, as his running mate July 16. De Leon played for the
Uruguayan national team from 1979 to 1990, and won five
league titles as a player and coach for the Montevideo team
Nacional. Bordaberry's choice of de Leon brought some flak
from Mujica and Astori, who criticized his lack of experience.


12. (SBU) Comment: Mujica and Astori's energetic campaigning
indicates that they have overcome the initial shock of the
Blancos' "victory" in the internal elections and the
headstart gained by the Lacalle/Larranaga ticket. However,
the FA is still lagging behind, with July 12 polling giving
the party 42% of likely voters compared to 46% for the
Blancos and Colorados combined - a loss of two percentage
points for the FA since June 28. End Comment.

Schandlbauer