Uruguay: A Strong Start for the Opposition Blanco

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000411

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC - MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UY
SUBJECT: Uruguay: A Strong Start for the Opposition Blanco
Party


1. (U) This telegram is sensitive but unclassified, and not
for Internet distribution.

Summary
--------------


2. (U) While the results of UruguayQs June 28 internal
elections largely conformed to expectations, a few surprises
have emerged in the light of the full results. The ruling
Frente Amplio (FA) coalition was clearly shaken by final
numbers showing the Blanco Party had garnered 46 percent of
the vote, or five percent more than the FA, with Blanco winner
Luis Alberto Lacalle getting the most votes of all the
candidates. Blanco turnout was higher than the FA in every
one of Uruguay's 19 departments except Montevideo. With the
ruling Frente Amplio (FA) coalition candidate Jose Mujica only
managing to secure runner-up Danilo Astori as his running mate
over a week after the Blanco winner Luis Alberto Lacalle
completed his ticket with Jorge Larranga, the FA find
themselves confronting an energized and confident opponent who
appear to have seized the initiative. Although the snapshot
nature of the primary election data precludes reliable longer-
term forecasting, it nevertheless suggests the country may be
in for a closely fought campaign. End Summary

Primary elections aftermath - as the fog lifts
--------------


3. (U) Initial reports suggested the incumbent Frente Amplio
(FA) coalition and the opposition Blanco (National) party had
attracted roughly the same number of votes during the June 28
internal elections. As the smoke cleared, however, it was
revealed that votes for Blanco candidates represented 46
percent of the vote, a lead of almost 5 percentage points over
the FAQs 41 percent share. The third-placed Colorado party
attracted a respectable total of 11.9 percent.


4. (U) There were also some mild surprises in the geographical
spread of the votes. The FA currently governs 8 of UruguayQs
19 electoral districts, including the two most important,
Montevideo and Canelones. With the exception of Montevideo,
not only did the Blanco support trump that of the FA in every
one of these departments, but in Canelones, normally a bastion
of FA support, the ruling coalition was relegated to the
status of a distant runner up. The Blancos have also been
buoyed by the news that the FA presidential candidate Jose
QPepeQ Mujica attracted 50,000 less votes than the winning
Blanco candidate, ex-president Luis Alberto Lacalle, a result
further sweetened by the revelation that Mujica had only
generated 20,000 more votes than second place Blanco candidate
Jorge Larranaga.


5. (U) Whether these figures are in any way indicative of the
candidates' chances in the October election, however, is
uncertain. While some FA voters may have been disenchanted
with the party, others may have failed to vote in the primary
because MujicaQs victory was a foregone conclusion. Blancos,
meanwhile, may have been attracted by the relatively close
struggle between Lacalle and Larranga, or may simply have been
animated by the partyQs well organized rallying. No matter
the reason, FA leaders will be determined to mobilize the
coalition faithful to vote in October.


6. (SBU) The Blancos capitalized on this early boost. Lacalle
and his running-mate Larranaga have already completed a 5-day,
17 locality national tour, and Mujica yet to begin his
official campaign, so the differences have been clear.

FAQs start delayed by haggling over Vice-Presidential pick
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Aside from the enhanced turn-out, the springboard for
much of the BlancosQ current momentum was provided by the
announcement of Larranga as LacalleQs vice presidential
candidate on election night (reftel). In contrast, the
completion of MujicaQs electoral ticket was a much more
protracted affair. Ex-economy minister Danilo Astori was long
considered the only choice, but the final July 6 confirmation
of his vice presidential candidacy came only after a series of
intense and often fruitless negotiations that began
immediately following AstoriQs rather graceless concession of
defeat after the internal elections (reftel). Despite a
slight bump in support (possibly owing to an anti-Mujica vote
from stray Colorados),Astori finished 54,000 votes behind his
rival. While it is widely assumed that Mujica needs AstoriQs
more moderate profile and his connection to the popular
outgoing president Tabere Vazquez, some commentators have
speculated that Mujica had lost patience with AstoriQs pre-
acceptance demands. In a blunt half-hour meeting between the


two men immediately prior to AstoriQs public nomination,
Astori learned that his carefully honed stipulations of
complete control over the economy and the power of veto in
several ministries were not going to be granted. There is
some speculation that AstoriQs subsequent grudging
acquiescence was largely secured by a serious of phone calls
from President Vazquez. It is also possible that Vazquez may
have advised Mujica of AstoriQs consent before the meeting.

The Art of Post-Election Hugging
--------------


8. (SBU) The strained arrangements within the FA were on full
display in the consequent joint press conference. Whereas
Mujica insisted that running with Astori would be an honor,
Astori glumly made reference to party loyalty. Having made
the announcement, Mujica had to be called back by party
president Jorge Brovetto in order to engage in the traditional
photo-op hug with his new running mate. Both men set about
the task with a level of enthusiasm more in keeping with an
order to embrace a large, dead fish.

9. (SBU) In contrast, Lacalle and Larranga hardly seem able to
hold themselves back from spontaneous outbreaks of manly
backslapping bonhomie. Theirs is an embrace steeled by mutual
dependence; the immediate political ambitions of both depend
on the political capital of the other, a fact that, so far at
least, seems to have mitigated their long standing rivalry.
Larranaga will still need to mollify those amongst his close
supporters whose consequent political profile may not be as
high as it would have been had he won, but that should pose
few problems. While it is still early, there are a few signs
that the FA is rattled by the apparent vitality from the
Blanco party; Mujica declared that the FA followers should
take to the streets and mobilize themselves in order to rise
to the BlancoQs challenge.

10. (SBU) On July 11, the FA candidates rolled out their
renewed message of unity and purpose. Mujica and Astori,
flanked by the coalition's Board, finally gave rousing,
smiling speeches together, and this time they got the hugs
right.

A Good Clean Fight?
--------------


11. (U) The tightness of the race at this early stage
indicates that Uruguay is in for a hard-fought campaign. Even
before the internal elections had taken place, Lacalle had
publically declared that potential investors are likely
waiting until December -- following the November runoff
election -- before deciding to do any business in Uruguay.
That broadside was clearly designed to highlight the
uncertainty many in the business sector feel towards Mujica.
After Lacalle reiterated the statement this week, Mujica used
his internet blog site to fire back the accusation that
Lacalle had sabotaged the country. He also stated that
investments not only need to be socially beneficial but also
politically honest, adding that Qcompanies flee from countries
governed by bribe takers,Q a barbed reference to a corruption
scandal that had taken place at the state insurance company
under LacalleQs administration.


12. (SBU) Seeking to avoid such memories, Lacalle has loftily
declared that the campaign should focus on the future instead
of dwelling on the past, an observation that Mujica (whose
history as a QTupamaroQ Guerilla leader in the the 60Qs and
70Qs includes some murky chapters) may well appreciate.
Lacalle then went on to question Mujica's call for changes in
the Uruguayan constitution, pointedly asking if the FA
intended to propose a constituent assembly process such as
that favored by Venezuelan President Chavez.

Comment
--------------


13. (SBU) Much may change over the next four months, but
there is little doubt that the Blancos have got off to an
unexpectedly strong start that caught the FA off-guard. How
long the Blancos can retain the initiative will soon be seen.
Now that the FA electoral ticket has settled (albeit
fractiously),the political fight will begin in earnest. End
Comment.