URUGUAY: NO SURPRISES IN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 000377

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/BSC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAY: NO SURPRISES IN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

REF: A. A) MVD 353

B. B) 2008 MVD 679

C. C) MVD 314

D. D) MVD 331

Classified By: CDA Robin Matthewman, for reason 1.4(b)

Summary
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1. (C) There were few surprises in the June 28 elections to
select presidential candidates from Uruguay,s three major
political parties, as the front runners translated their
respective poll advantages into solid victories. The big
winners were ex-President Luis Alberto Lacalle of the Blanco
party and ex-Tupamaro guerrilla and current Senator Jose
Mujica of the incumbent Frente Amplio (FA) coalition, and the
battle between those two leading up to October,s
presidential vote is expected to be intense and closely
fought. Colorado Party candidate Pedro Bordaberry
overwhelmingly won his party's nomination, but only modestly
increased the percentage of votes the Colorado Party
attracted. The Blanco Party, in contrast, was buoyed
substantially by its solid showing and projected image of
unity. The candidates are expected to request meetings in
Washington this summer to shore up their reputations on
foreign policy issues. End Summary.

Large Turnout, Free and Fair Elections
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2. (U) With a lower than expected turnout of around 40
percent of eligible voters, this Sunday finally allowed the
Uruguayan electorate to settle the question of who will be
the presidential candidates for the general elections in
October. After what participants and media agreed was a
typically free and fair election, Uruguay,s electoral court
announced that Jose Mujica (Ref A) will represent the
incumbent Frente Amplio (FA) coalition, winning 54 percent of
the FA vote to his closest competitor's 39 percent;
ex-president Luis Alberto Lacalle will represent the Blanco
(National) party, winning by a margin of 57-43 percent; and
Pedro Bordaberry will be standing for the beleaguered
Colorado party, winning an overwhelming 72 percent of the
Colorado vote. Uruguay has a fourth established party, the
Independent party, but that party generally receives only
around one percent of the vote, and is not expected to be a
factor unless the October election results trigger a
presidential runoff (Ref B).


3. (U) Analyists explained the relatively low turnout --
pollsters predicted that around 55 percent of eligible voters
would cast ballots -- as a function of Mujica and
Bordaberry's insuperable leads within their parties, cold
weather, and the fact that the election took place within
Uruguay's winter school vacations. The Blanco party had a
comparatively high turnout that pushed the Blanco vote to
exceed the total FA vote by a percentage point. Blanco
voters may well have been drawn by the relatively close
running of the two main candidates. The primary was not
necessarily a valid snapshot of overall party support, as
primary election voting is optional, and most polls show the
FA with a clear edge in voting intention for October.
However, the FA party leadership was clearly shaken by the
number of party faithful who stayed home.


4. (U) Uruguay's open and active media affirmed that the vote
had been free and fair. There was no election-related
violence reported anywhere in the country. Uruguay has a
history of peaceful and free elections, and has not had
election observers in the past. This year, representatives
from the Inter-American Institute for Human Rights were
present strictly in an academic capacity, to compare
Uruguay's with other election systems in the region and make
systemic recommendations.

No Surprises
--------------


5. (U) Polls had identified Jose Pepe, Mujica as the FA
front runner even before he won the unoffical FA nomination
at the FA's annual conference in December 2008. Bordaberry,
the only rising star in the Colorado Party (polling at around
10 percent approval),has long been seen as that party's only
viable candidate (Ref C). While the race for the Blanco
Party's nomination was thought to be closer (Ref D),Lacalle
had been building a lead in recent months over his rival
Jorge Larranaga. The parties now will still need to strike
internal deals, rearrange personnel and generally recalibrate
their resources ahead of October,s presidential fight.

A Clear Contrast, But An Expected Race to the Center
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6. (C) With the Colorados working more toward rebuilding
their party than winning the presidential election, the
ensuing race looks set to be largely divided between the
well-defined but contrasting personalities of the FA and
Blanco candidates. Both Mujica and Lacalle are familiar
entities on the Uruguayan political scene, having spent many
years as stalwarts of, respectively, the left and right.
Lacalle, who was president during a period of relative
economic prosperity (1990-1995),strikes a sober note of
experience and responsibility and draws his base of support
mainly from older, upper, and middle class voters (Ref D).
Mujica,s more colorful image paints him as a man of the
people, and his votes tend to come from the poorer sectors of
society. Mujica's political profile continues to be informed
by his past as a radical left &Tupamaro, guerilla fighter
in the 60,s and 70,s.

7. (C) Both Mujica and Lacalle know that success lies in
being able to attract the middle class. Crucially, this
center-ground is home to the estimated 10 percent of
undecided voters, a fact that both campaigns have already
taken into account. Lacalle, who is sometimes seen as
somewhat removed from the concerns of the public and who is
overcoming the legacy of being associated with corruption
during his first term, has begun to mix themes of social
equality with his more customary rhetoric of the benefits of
free trade and the importance of social and financial
security. Meanwhile Mujica, who is often portrayed as
distrustful of commerce, has been making attempts to reach
out to business leaders and has recently spoken about the
need to open up the national energy market.

Running Mates: Deals to be Done
--------------


8. (C) Possibly the most significant political signal
immediately available to the candidates lies in the selection
of their vice presidential running mates. Accordingly, both
Mujica and Lacalle were expected to select running mates who
could provide them with a reassuring political
counterbalance. So far however, only Lacalle has confirmed
his pick, nominating Larranaga, his rival in this year's
primary and the Blanco candidate for president in 2004.
Larranaga is a relatively youthful, occasionally voluble
figure who many Blancos believe could succeed Lacalle as
president in 2014. The Blanco,s quick announcement helped
project confidence and unity and purpose. TV viewers
generally went to bed on June 28 after watching the entire
party leadership passionately singing at their victory party.
On the FA side, Mujica is currently engaged in negotiations
with ex-finance minister and FA runner-up Danilo Astori, whom
Mujica has publicly stated he needs for the FA to win. The
FA has announced a party gathering for the weekend of July
5-6, during which its full ticket is expected to be decided.
If Mujica cannot come to an agreement with Astori, then
Marcos Carambula, the third-place FA candidate and governor
of the vote-rich department of Canelones, is a likely second
choice. Bordaberry had already declared that his Colorado
running mate wouldn,t be announced until the Party Assembly
meets in the next few days, but it looks probable that
ex-presidential candidate Jose Amorin will get the nod.

How Things Stand
--------------


9. (C) Outgoing President Tabare Vazquez remains the most
popular politician in the country and the FA, while not at
the moment as united as it could be, is a potent political
force. Many analysts believe those factors give the FA a
significant advantage leading into the October elections. It
is uncertain whether that will be enough to help the FA win a
simple majority of the vote, however, as it did in 2004.
More likely, no party will get a majority, and there will be
a run-off in November. In that event, there exists a strong
possibility that the Blancos would pull out all the stops to
attract Colorado Party voters. Polls show that a high
percentage of Colorado supporters would vote for Lacalle
before Mujica.

Comment: The Road Ahead
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10. (C) The Blancos hit the ground running, bolstered by
having edged out the Frente in total votes. Their early
announcement of a ticket demonstrated cohesion in a party
prone to fragmentation in the past. Meanwhile, the FA's
protracted negotiations in cementing what most believe is an
inevitable Mujica/Astori ticket cedes positive headlines to
the Blancos.
Matthewman