Uruguay Elections - Majority of Cabinet Likely to Seek

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000249

DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL UY
SUBJECT: Uruguay Elections - Majority of Cabinet Likely to Seek
Elected Posts

SUMMARY
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1. As the election season moves into higher gear, President Vazquez
informed the members of his cabinet that any individuals who wish to
campaign in October's general election will need to resign their
positions after the June 28 primaries. It seems likely that the
majority of the cabinet will do so. Replacements are likely to be
selected in accordance with their ability to complete outstanding
initiatives in what is widely seen to have been a successful
presidency. End Summary.


2. President Vazquez announced during a cabinet meeting April 20
that any ministers wishing to pursue elected office in October's
general election would need to tender their resignation from the
cabinet after Uruguay's national primary (internal party elections
to determine presidential candidates) on 28 June. The move is not
unprecedented; a similar request was made by President Luis Alberto
Lacalle (1990-95) to his Cabinet members. Mindful of the
considerable strain that campaigning places on ministers' schedules,
President Vazquez is hoping to ensure that the cabinet's ability to
function is not too badly impacted by the election season. The move
could also be viewed as a way of moving controversial members of the
cabinet out of the public limelight, to better the governing
coalition's chances in the fall elections.

3. The ruling Frente Amplio coalition (Broad Front, or FA) party's
substantial victory in 2005 with over 50 percent of the total vote
meant that Vazquez's administration was the first since the return
of democracy in 1985 in which the cabinet has not included
opposition party ministers. As its name states, however, the FA is
a broad coalition, and that means each cabinet minister has a key
role to fulfill within his/her own party in addition to cabinet
responsibilities. Each of those parties will be trying to maximize
their political positions in the coming months, placing significant
demands on their top politicians. Once the internal elections have
revealed not only the FA's presidential candidate but also the wider
political lay of the land, the pace of political activity will ramp
up dramatically. At stake is not only the presidency, but all the
seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Not all
factions with representatives in the cabinet are happy with
Vazquez's ultimatum; there is a fear among some that once their
candidates have stepped down from a ministerial position, their
diminished public profile may result in fewer votes.


4. Although none of the resignations below have been confirmed, the
Embassy predicts that around 7 members of the 13-minister-strong
cabinet (plus one de-facto minister) are expected to resign.

A speculative summary follows:

- Interior Minister Daisy Tourne, a member of the Socialist Party,
will probably resign. Note: the Socialist Party backs presidential
hopeful Danilo Astori, who currently polls in second place within
the FA. End note. Although she has expressed a desire to remain
with the Vazquez administration until the completion of his term,
she has a sizeable number of detractors resulting from battles with
police unions, rising crime, and widely criticized prison decisions.

- Defense Minister Dr Jose Bayardi, from the 'Vertiente Artiguista,'
faction, as well as Vice Minister Jorge Menendez, are likely to
resign and seek parliamentary seats. Vertiente Artiguista supports
presidential hopeful Marcos Carambula, currently in third place.

- Enrique Rubio, head of the Planning and Budget Office of the
Presidency (a de-facto ministerial position) is also aligned with
the Vertiente Artiguista faction. Rubio was once a potential
presidential candidate himself and, like Bayardi, carries the kind
of clout that could see him secure a seat in the Assembly in
October.

- Transport and Public Works Minister Victor Rossi, a member of the
'Alianza Progresista,' has announced that he knows what his decision
is, but that he will wait until July to announce it. Less coy
political sources have suggested it is probable he will campaign for
a parliamentary seat. Note: the Progressive Alliance supports
Marcos Carambula.

- Industry, Energy and Mining Minister Daniel Martinez, a member of
the Socialist Party, was once a potential presidential candidate
himself. He retains a high profile in the party. The Socialists
are hopeful he will make it to the Senate.

- Labor and Social Welfare Minster Eduardo Bonomi is a member of the
Movimiento de Participacion Popular faction (The Popular
Participation Movement or MPP),which is home to the present
Presidental Candidate front-runner Jose Mujica. His clear
aspirations for a Senate seat make his resignation probable.

- Agriculture, Livestock and Fish Minister Ernesto Agazzi is also a

member of the MPP faction and is also seen as a possible
parliamentary candidate. He has been a lightning rod for criticism
by ranchers critical of his handling of the drought in late 2008 and
early 2009.

- It seems possible that Tourism and Sports Minister Hector Lescano
may also resign. He is presently playing his cards close to his
chest, however, declaring that Vazquez's announcement will require
some 'personal reflection' before he announces his decision in June.
Lescano is a member of the Partido Democrata Cristiano-Alianza
Progresista (Progressive Democratic Christian Alliance Party) and is
backing Astori.

- Economy and Finance Minister Alvaro Garcia, a Socialist, is likely
to move back to the private sector after the election and will
therefore not be required to resign. Garcia is very close to the
foreign minister and president, and is considered key to maintaining
economic equilibrium amidst worldwide economic turmoil.

- Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Gonzalo Fernandez, a member of the
Socialist Party but a criminal defense attorney by trade, is also
thought to be returning to private practice after he relinquishes
his ministry. He has stated that he will remain in office until the
end of the Vazquez government.

- Education and Culture Minister Maria Simon, from the 'Leftist
Independent Sector,' has made no statement about her intentions,
including which candidate she plans to support. It is widely
assumed that she will choose to stay in her Cabinet position.

- Social Development Minister Marina Arismendi of the Communist
Party is much more definite; she has made it clear that she has no
aspirations to a parliamentary seat and will not resign. Increased
social spending, although criticized by the opposition, has been a
hallmark of the Vazquez government.

- It also seems probable that Public Health Minster Maria Julia
Munoz, a former member of the 'Vertiente Artiguista' faction and a
close ally of the President, will opt to keep her place in the
Cabinet. She may well return to private practice after the
election.

- Housing, Land Use Planning and Environment Minister Carlos
Colacce, also close to Vazquez, is likely to remain in the Cabinet.
He is a member of the Leftist Independent faction, but is considered
to be more technocrat than political heavyweight. He plays a key
role in developing Uruguay's plan of action on climate change, but
has been criticized for not delivering on GOU promises for low-cost
housing.


4. There is no word yet on possible replacements for the departing
ministers, but it is likely many will be promoted from within their
ministries. A key exception may be the interior minister, an
important position that in Uruguay holds precedence over all other
Cabinet slots. Vazquez seems to be aiming for a calm and steady
close to this chapter of his political life. Public approval
continues to be high. An opinion poll published this week not only
shows a 53 percent approval for his administration's performance,
but also places his personal popularity at 61 per cent, making him
by far the most popular politician in Uruguay. Last year's cabinet
reshuffle (Vazquez's first),in which some political allies were
moved into ministerial positions, already signaled Vazquez's desire
to consolidate his achievements and reputation.