URUGUAY: VAZQUEZ RALLIES THE FA BASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MONTEVIDEO 000141

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV UY
SUBJECT: URUGUAY: VAZQUEZ RALLIES THE FA BASE

REF: A. MONTEVIDEO 060

B. MONTEVIDEO 074

C. 08 MONTEVIDEO 685

Classified By: PE Alfred Schandlbauer, for reason 1.4 (B)

Summary
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1. (U) In a downtown Montevideo rally attended by several
thousand supporters, President Vazquez delivered an
optimistic two-hour-long state of the union address that
emphasized Uruguay's progress under his administration. His
focus was on the success of ruling coalition Frente Amplio's
social reforms, and he defended a controversial tax reform as
well as his government's record in taking actions to mitigate
a recent severe drought. Uruguay's constitution prohibits
elected officials from participating in political campaigns,
but some observers described the event as a clear attempt to
shore up the FA base. End Summary.

"We've had luck, but we've helped it along"
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2. (U) Vazquez recognized the benefits his administration
enjoyed in terms of the robust global economy of the past
several years, but held that the FA's efforts were
fundamental in determining what he described as Uruguay's
solid position today. He directly addressed most of the
criticisms made by the opposition over the past few months,
comparing forecasters of doom after the FA victory to the
forecasters of rain for this overcast event (that commenced
just hours after a downpour). Vazquez dedicated the largest
part of the speech to emphasizing the ways in which GOU
social programs had been expanded and improved, countering
opposition insinuations that the FA had not delivered on its
promises with facts and figures demonstrating FA
achievements. According to Vazquez, the FA is shrinking the
poverty gap, with poverty down to 21 percent from 32 percent
in 2005. FA efforts have also resulted in the creation of
70,000 "good" jobs, Vazquez said, and an increase in the
purchasing power of salaries, citing a real wage increase of
19 percent.


3. Vazquez stated that Uruguay is well-positioned to weather
the global economic crisis. He emphasized the role that a
controversial tax reform (Ref A) and prudent macroeconomic
policy had played in supporting the FA goals. The pivot
point of his discussion on economic policy was a claim to
have progressed toward the elimination of foreign dependence,
primarily by working to pay off foreign debt, which has
halved during his time in the presidency. The level of
national debt in general has also significantly decreased
(Ref B). Vazquez stressed Uruguay's healthy growth,
averaging 8 percent over the past four years, and predicted
that Uruguay would grow by three percent in 2009.


4. Uruguay recently suffered from a severe drought, and many
Uruguayans had criticized the GOU's mitigation efforts (Ref
C). Vazquez used the occasion to defend his government's
actions, reading a list of 34 measures that the GOU undertook
to address problems caused by the drought in late November
through mid-January, including providing microcredits for
affected farmers and financial support for building
irrigation infrastructure. He also staunchly defended his
handling of another recent scandal, which centered on alleged
improper practices at Uruguay's National Institute for the
Child and Adolescent. Vazquez reminded listeners that the
problems with that institution have long-standing and
deep-seated roots, and pledged to continue to work to resolve
them and treat affected children as humanely as possible.

Speech Stirs Controversy
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5. Although prohibited by the constitution from publicly
supporting any one candidate or even participating in a
partisan event, Vazquez's speech managed to praise the FA
candidates. By including mentions of former presidents, he
was able to highlight the achievements of candidates Danilo
Astori and Jose Mujica, a move that garnered applause. He
also highlighted topics of particular interest to the FA
base, such as thanking Cuba and Venezuela for medical
assistance and mentioning the GOU's efforts to extradite from
Italy an official from Uruguay's military dictatorship, which
prompted a standing ovation. Opposition candidates pointed
out that the speech lauded the FA while failing to recognize
the accomplishments and cooperation of other parties.


6. The opposition was outraged not only with the decision to
hold a rally, but also with the tone of the speech. In his
defense of the government's measures against the drought,
Vazquez performed what some considered a demeaning impression
of Blanco candidate Jorge Larranaga, who had been a strong
critic of the government's actions. In response, Larranaga
called the speech "political, extremely long, tedious, boring
and pretentious." Other opposition parties are going
further by calling the act illegal. One opposition candidate
stated that the opposition should be allowed to host rallies
of their own that are financed by the state and given equal
access to press. Another called it a "gross violation" of
the constitution "in the tradition of Castro and Chavez."

Comment
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7. (C) Vazquez took pains to deny that the rally had a
partisan nature, and repeatedly spoke of his pride about
serving as "president of all Uruguayans," but critics who
complained the speech was a partisan event had a point. The
speech probably did not gain the FA many new votes, but it
certainly inspired the base. Many Vazquez supporters
characterized the speech as Vazquez's best since he assumed
the presidency, and the turnout showed he is still the most
popular politician in the country. The individual that
polling indicates is next in popularity, Jose Mujica, drew
only about half the number of participants to a similar event
two days earlier formally kicking off his campaign.
Matthewman