POST-ELECTION FALLOUT IN MONTERREY

UNCLAS MONTERREY 000277

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KCRM MX
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION FALLOUT IN MONTERREY

REF: MONTERREY 0261


1. (SBU) Summary. Now that the PRI gubernatorial candidate,
Rodrigo Medina, has won in Nuevo Leon, and local PRI candidates,
in general, did better than expected, the political class is
slowly adjusting to new realities. While the 36-year old Medina
has yet to reveal the members of his governing team, his
election - as well as that of two youthful PRI mayors - has made
it clear that the region's voters opted to given fresh, new
faces a chance to deal with the state's pressing economic and
security challenges. Meanwhile, so far local PAN cadres have
been able to avoid the blame game that often follows electoral
losses. Many are consoled by the hope of finding onward
employment in Mexico City with President Calderon's
administration or on incoming Monterrey Mayor Fernando
Larrazabal's team. End Summary.




2. (SBU) Across both parties (PRI and PAN) the July 5
election brought distinct winners and losers. Clearly, Rodrigo
Medina, the prevailing candidate in the governor's race, stands
in the winner's camp, but so do a number of other political
players as well. First of all, youth has been served as the
crop of PRI figures under the age of 40 (both in the public and
private sectors) are excited about the possibility of receiving
key posts on Medina's governing team. Medina and current
Governor Gonzalez Paras - Medina's principal PRI supporter -
begin transition talks the week of August 3. However, with two
high-profile international events set to take place in
September, the U.S.-Mexico Border Governor's Conference and a
separate meeting on `Educating on Values,' Governor Gonzalez
Paras doesn't intend to depart the stage just yet.




3. (SBU) On the PAN side, incoming Monterrey Mayor - and
former federal congressman - Fernando Larrazabal immediately
becomes the party's most visible office-holder as he will soon
take command of Monterrey's mammoth city hall. Larrazabal,
who during the campaign told the Consul General that he would
file a defamation suit against the PRI for suggested that he had
hidden U.S. bank accounts, now appears to be willing to forgive
and forget. Outgoing Monterrey Mayor Adalberto Madero and
outgoing San Pedro Mayor Fernando Margain, the PAN
pre-candidates for governor who did not receive the nomination
because national party headquarters handpicked another
challenger, also are well-placed. Madero, a former Senator from
Nuevo Leon, told the CG that he planned to work in the Calderon
Administration while rumors persist that Margain will do the
same. Indeed, it appears that Madero is being courted by all
sides as the war chest he has amassed during his term as mayor
through his efforts to drain the pockets of big business gives
him the capacity to bankroll other potential candidates.




4. (SBU) Both the city's big business community and
Monterrey's leading newspaper, "El Norte," stand on the losing
side. Monterrey's industrial heavyweights - the Group of Ten -
were vocal in their support of defeated PRI candidate Fernando
Elizondo during the campaign. Meanwhile, El Norte visibly
leaned toward Elizondo all through the electoral process. In a
private conversation with the CG, El Norte managers noted that
the city's television outlets had clearly favored Medina,
providing him with the lion's share of the coverage and numerous
opportunities to expound his platform in favorable, no-pressure
settings.




5. (SBU) Comment. As for more than two years Medina served
as Governor Gonzalez Paras' Secretario de Gobernacion, Consulate
leadership knows him well. We believe that he'll move swiftly
to bolster the state's law enforcement apparatus, a move which
will allow him to rally both PRI and PAN supporters. The byplay
between Medina's increased focus on security and the inevitable
(probably violent) reaction on the part of organized crime and
the drug cartels will be the defining theme over the coming
months.

WILLIAMSON