Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MONTERREY110
2009-03-17 15:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Monterrey
Cable title:  

PAN AND PRI RESORT TO OLD TACTICS IN NUEVO LEON GOVERNOR'S

Tags:  PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
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R 171525Z MAR 09
FM AMCONSUL MONTERREY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3585
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4640
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY 9154
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MONTERREY 000110 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX
SUBJECT: PAN AND PRI RESORT TO OLD TACTICS IN NUEVO LEON GOVERNOR'S
RACE

REF: A) 08 MONTERREY 559 B) MONTERREY 079

MONTERREY 00000110 001.2 OF 004


Summary



UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MONTERREY 000110

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOR MX
SUBJECT: PAN AND PRI RESORT TO OLD TACTICS IN NUEVO LEON GOVERNOR'S
RACE

REF: A) 08 MONTERREY 559 B) MONTERREY 079

MONTERREY 00000110 001.2 OF 004


Summary




1. (U) Summary. Despite earlier promises to hold primaries,
the Nuevo Leon PAN and PRI parties both chose their candidates
by direct designation, reflecting the parties' desire to control
the process. The PAN selected Fernando Elizondo Barragan to be
their candidate for governor and the PRI chose Rodrigo Medina de
la Cruz, both of whom are considered centralist, mainstream
candidates. Both parties continue to view the state elections
as a barometer for the 2012 federal elections and the national
party leaders played an important role in choosing the
candidates. The election reform laws already favor the large,
established parties but the PAN and PRI are still working hard
to exploit the reforms. The PRD has a negligible presence in
Nuevo Leon. Some longtime Panistas think that the PAN party has
abandoned its beliefs by imitating the PRI in designating a
candidate and by courting the party of the teachers union for a
coalition. End Summary.



The PAN Party




2. (SBU) After a month of deliberations, the national PAN
leadership chose to overrule the state PAN's decision to allow a
vote of state party members to choose a candidate (See reftel
A). Instead, national leaders handpicked (`dedazo') Fernando
Elizondo to be the party's candidate for governor on February 3.
The decision appears to be a way to avoid a possible
embarrassment if Adalberto Madero, the current mayor of
Monterrey, or Fernando Larrazabal, a state congressman, were to
win. Madero and Larrazabal have both been plagued by corruption
allegations lodged by the business community and the local media
but both remain very popular with the working classes in urban
areas. Publicly, local and national PAN leaders have said the
dedazo was important to bring unity to the party. PAN leaders
from President Calderon on down have come out to support
Elizondo, calling him the right man for the job. According to a
high ranking PAN party member, Francisco Lozano, there is still
a lot of discord within the party. Many believe that Elizondo
is an excellent candidate but are unhappy with the selection
process. Another leading candidate, San Pedro Mayor Fernando

Margain, a good friend and "compadre" of President Calderon, was
particularly upset with the decision. He reportedly has been
offered an ambassadorship, at the Vatican, or by some accounts,
in Paris. Madero was initially very public with his displeasure
with the direct designation but in recent weeks has not made any
public remarks on the subject. The PAN has agreed to back two
of Madero's allies to be federal congressional deputies,
Guillermo Blanco - his ex-driver and now his chief of staff, and
Cynthia Yanez - his current executive assistant.



PAN Candidate Fernando Elizondo




3. (SBU) Elizondo has a long history of government service,
falls into the conservative camp, and feels the United States
is an important ally. Prior to his election as a federal
senator, Elizondo also served as state treasurer, interim
governor of Nuevo Leon in 2003, and federal energy secretary for
President Vicente Fox. Elizondo comes from a prominent Nuevo
Leon family and has strong ties to the business community,
especially with heavyweight Group of Ten companies such as
Alfa, Cemex and Hylsa. Elizondo's father was a popular governor
of Nuevo Leon from 1967-1971. Based upon our discussions with
him, Elizondo came across as a pragmatic leader well versed in
the issues. The infighting in the PAN party and Elizondo's age
(60) will continue to be problems in his election bid.



The PRI Party




4. (SBU) On the same day as the PAN announcement, the PRI party
also decided to designate a candidate, Nuevo Leon Secretary
General Rodrigo Medina. The party had originally decided to
hold an open primary to allow the people of Nuevo Leon to choose
the PRI candidate. The state PRI committee announced that
having a unity candidate instead of a competitive primary would

MONTERREY 00000110 002.2 OF 004


better serve the party. The PRI committee had the blessing of
the federal party leaders and leaders of the major trade unions
--CTM, CROC, CNOP, and the CNC. Before the announcement, Abel
Guerra, Nuevo Leon's State Public Works Chief and a former
congressman, was the leading candidate. However, Guerra did not
have the support of the current PRI governor of Nuevo Leon, Jose
Natividad Gonzalez Paras, and this may have been the crucial
element in deciding the candidate. Guerra won the consolation
prize with his designation as PRI's candidate for mayor of
Monterrey and he has publicly announced his support of Medina.
In contrast to the PAN, years of ingrained party discipline has
helped to keep PRI party members from attacking one another in
public. Behind the scenes, two camps appear to have formed in
the state party; one backed by the Governor Jose Natividad
Gonzalez Paras and the other backed by Guerra. The internal
battle produced mixed results: the governor chose his protege
Medina as PRI candidate for Governor, but Guerra won the PRI nod
as candidate for Mayor of Monterrey and he was able to name an
ally as the new president for the influential state PRI party.



PRI Candidate Rodrigo Medina




5. (SBU) Rodrigo Medina is currently on leave as the Secretary
General for Nuevo Leon and previously served as a federal
congressman. Medina, 36, is viewed as an inexperienced, unknown
candidate compared to Elizondo, but voters may welcome a young,
energetic personality in the governor's house. Gonzalez Paras
invited Medina to join his cabinet in 2007 when Medina was a
federal congressman, and immediately began grooming him as his
successor. Because of his youth, Monterrey's leading daily, "El
Norte" at times refers to Medina as the "Golden Boy,"
although some cynically observe that this ostensibly derogatory
reference is actually a ruse designed to heighten his public
profile. To increase his exposure, the governor has often asked
Medina to represent him before key PRI constituencies such as
labor unions. While not illegal, Medina's filling in for the
governor circumvented election rules against using one's
government office to promote a candidate. Without the dedazo,
Medina would have had a difficult time winning the party's
nomination because he was well behind Guerra in the polls and
the short 59 day pre-campaign season would not have given him
enough time to convince voters. Medina is expected to continue
many of Governor Gonzalez Paras' programs. Like his PAN
opponent, Medina's platform centers on improving security and
the economy.



Polling numbers show a Close Race




6. (U) Medina and Elizondo are tied according to recent polls
by El Norte but Medina has the momentum in his favor. Medina
suffered from name recognition early on but now that campaigning
has started, he has gained legitimacy as the PRI candidate.
With the headline-grabbing drug violence taking place in
northern Mexico, both candidates have received a lot of
attention as they have condemned the crime, corruption and
impunity in the state. Voters continued to be concerned with
the escalating drug violence and the effects of the economic
crisis.



The Clubby World of Nuevo Leon Politics




7. (SBU) Elizondo and Medina are both centrist, mainstream
candidates and both have ties to the influential Monterrey law
firm Santos Elizondo. Elizondo and Medina's mentor, Governor
Gonzalez Paras, were both partners in the law firm. The
governor's brother is still a partner at the firm, and we also
understand that PRI candidate Medina's father is a lawyer with
the firm. Therefore, if either PAN or PRI win, the law firm
will retain its political influence.



PRI is Better at Building Small Party Coalitions




8. (SBU) In the run up to the primary deadline on March 15,

MONTERREY 00000110 003.2 OF 004


the ten registered political parties in Nuevo Leon scrambled to
agree on coalitions. By forming alliances with either the PAN
or PRI, smaller parties are guaranteed survival by continuing to
receive state recognition. (In addition, they would likely be
allowed to name candidates for a few city council positions, a
mayor of a town, or even a state legislator.) Under the new
election laws, parties that do not win at least 1.5% of the
popular vote in the state legislative elections are eliminated
as official parties, forfeiting state campaign funds and needing
to gain thousands of signatures to reregister as parties.
Therefore, even if they do not agree on political principles,
there are powerful reasons for weak parties to seek the shelter
of a coalition.




9. (SBU) For the PAN and PRI, coalitions can maximize their
media advertising and spending caps even though their partners
might not be able to deliver votes directly. Some of the newer
political parties would struggle to muster even 1% of votes
cast. Under the new election law, the number of TV and radio
spots (paid for by the state) is based on a formula - the first
30% are allocated to the ten registered political parties
equally and the rest are allocated based on the percentage of
votes won in the 2006 legislative elections. TV and radio spots
are regulated so no party is allowed to purchase air time beyond
that allotted by the state electoral commission. The spending
limits (which are 38% financed by the state) work similarly.
The formulas overcompensate smaller parties and because of the
close governor's race, shortened election cycle, and low
spending limits, every advantage counts.




10. (SBU) The PRI agreed on a statewide coalition with the
Partido del Trabajo, Verde Ecologista, Cruzada Cuidadana and the
Partido Demoocrata to form a left center coalition. The PAN
also vigorously tried to recruit some of these second tier
parties, but was unsuccessful. The PRI is more centrally
controlled and it was able to move quickly to form coalitions,
whereas PAN infighting made it more difficult. The most
interesting development occurred with the largest of the second
tier parties, Nueva Alianza (PANAL),the party created by the
teachers' union SNTE. The PANAL party is seen as a potential
kingmaker because the SNTE union is the largest labor union in
Mexico, and the teachers can serve as election foot soldiers to
promote their preferred candidate. PANAL independently won 6%
of the vote for the state legislature in 2006. Ostensibly It
rejected a coalition with the PAN because the two could not
agree on a platform -- and a few days later announced a
coalition with the PRI party in the local media. However, as
recounted to poloff by a source at the event, the night the
PANAL and PRI party leadership were about to sign the paperwork,
the state PANAL representative received a call from Elba Esther
Gordillo, the leader of the SNTE, who told the state PANAL party
to call off the coalition. While it is unknown why Gordillo
broke off the coalition, one logical possibility is that she did
not want to anger President Calderon, a PAN member. In the
press, PRI and PANAL leadership cited disagreements over which
positions would be offered to the PANAL as the reason for the
breakup.

Irregularities




11. (SBU) There is widespread use of public resources by both
parties even though this is strictly forbidden under the new
election laws. For example, the State Government run by a PRI
governor is spending heavily to promote its large public work
projects and has proposed populist projects that may never take
place. Also, there are reports by local newspapers that
different city workers from several municipalities are
campaigning for their respective PAN or PRI candidates.
Additionally outlawed under the election rules are political
advertisements on public property but this law is violated
frequently. Some local mayors have taken to painting bus stops
and utility polls PAN or PRI colors. The state electoral
commission has not stepped in to stop any of the infractions of
the election laws.




12. (SBU) The issue of the media and campaigning is continuing
to be a problem. While campaigns cannot purchase additional TV
or radio spots, there are allegations that the political parties
are paying reporters under the table for interviews and press
coverage to circumvent the rules. Paying reporters for
political coverage is not new in Mexico, but it was hoped that

MONTERREY 00000110 004.2 OF 004


new auditing rules of campaign funds would prevent this.




13. (SBU) Violence and drug trafficking organizations are having
an effect on the elections too. Nuevo Leon PAN President Juan
Carlos Ruiz publicly claimed that the party had trouble
recruiting candidates in rural areas due to security concerns.
National PAN President German Martinez contradicted Ruiz the
next day, claiming that the PAN had no trouble recruiting
candidates. In any case, the PAN party is not running
candidates in 7 of the 51 municipalities in the state, while in
the 2006 elections the PAN failed to run a candidate in only one
municipality. Governor Gonzalez Paras has offered to provide
protection to candidates but the PAN rejected the offer saying
that the state has the responsibility to protect all of its
citizens and it does not want the special attention.



Comments




14. (SBU) Comment. The state's election reform laws approved
in 2008 were widely welcomed in Nuevo Leon, but the restrictions
on campaign funds and short times for campaigning favor the two
major parties and well known candidates. The visible abuses of
the election laws and the announcements by the two main
political parties to scrap party primaries have made voters more
skeptical of clean elections. There is also the potential that
drug trafficking organizations could disrupt the elections.
There has not been any evidence so far of drug money entering
campaigns but the PAN not running candidates in certain
municipalities makes it clear that drug trafficking
organizations are still intimidating candidates. The
narco-funded protests in Monterrey and other cities in the
border region last month also demonstrated the control the drug
trafficking organizations have in poorer segments of the society
(see reftel B).




15. (SBU) Comment continued. Some longtime PAN party members,
such as PAN Mayor Margain and the previous PAN governor,
Fernando Canales, lament that the PAN party has abandoned its
principles by copying old PRI tactics to win elections. These
PANistas were dismayed that the PAN has resorted to the dedazo,
the old PRI way to designate candidates, rather than hold a
public and transparent primary. Moreover, many longtime PAN
members were disgusted that the local PAN party sought a
coalition with the PANAL teacher's union party, since they see
the teachers union as emblematic of PRI backroom deals and decry
the teacher union's role in blocking needed reforms to improve
Mexican public schools. End Comment.
WILLIAMSON