LIBERIA: OPPOSITION WINS SENATE BY-ELECTION RUN-OFF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000877

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI KPAO LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA: OPPOSITION WINS SENATE BY-ELECTION RUN-OFF

REF: A) MONROVIA 570 B) MONROVIA 691 C) MONROVIA 776
D) MONROVIA 821 E) MONROVIA 833 F) MONROVIA 841


1. (U) SUMMARY. The opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC)
convincingly won the Montserrado County senatorial by-election in a
second crucial test for the National Elections Commission (NEC).
The ruling Unity Party (UP) lost the election despite heavy
financial backing and support from four candidates who failed to
make the second round. Embassy observer teams found the run-off
better organized than the first round, but technical and procedural
problems remained. The Embassy issued a press release praising the
NEC and workers on a successful election, and congratulating
Senator-elect Geraldine Doe-Sheriff. The conduct of this election
is likely a precursor to the 2011 presidential elections. We expect
both the UP and CDC, Liberia's two strongest parties, to use the
intervening period to draw in support from smaller political parties
and other important constituencies, such as the youth vote. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) Geraldine Doe-Sheriff of the CDC won Montserrado County's
November 24 Senate by-election run-off. The final tally released by
NEC Chairman James Fromayan at a November 26 press conference showed
Doe-Sheriff winning 56 percent of votes cast (or 58,384 votes),
while Clemenceau Urey of the ruling UP won 44 percent (45,864
votes). Doe-Sheriff's by-election win follows her November 10
first-round election victory (Ref E) in which she failed to gain the
required plurality for outright victory. The NEC also reported
105,800 ballots cast (22 percent voter turnout) in the November 24
run-off. Voter participation was again low, but slightly higher
than in the first round (20 percent turnout).

POLITICAL STARS, FIRST-ROUND LOSERS RALLY AHEAD
OF RUN-OFF
-------------- --


3. (U) Most political forces divided over which candidate to back in
the run-off. Only the Liberty Party (LP) and its first-round
candidate Darius Dillon offered complete backing to the CDC's
Doe-Sheriff. Four candidates who failed to make the run-off
endorsed the UP's Urey, including Alhaji Kromah of the All Liberia
Coalition Party and three independent candidates. Wilson Tarpeh,
first round candidate of the Alliance for Peace and Democracy, did
not support Urey despite his party leadership backing the UP
candidate. Former President Taylor's National Patriotic Party (NPP)
also split, though his wife, Bong County Senator Jewel
Howard-Taylor, rallied to Doe-Sheriff. Early reports that the
Women's Legislative Caucus backed the female CDC candidate were
later countered by UP female legislators' public pro-Urey
declarations.


4. (SBU) Both candidates held rallies that drew large crowds thanks
to the presence of President Sirleaf and former CDC presidential
candidate, soccer star George Weah. Sirleaf appeared with Urey at
rallies in the core areas of UP support, Monrovia's suburbs.
Doe-Sheriff and Weah focused their efforts on appearances in the
CDC's strongholds of central Monrovia and on Bushrod Island, home to
many of the region's poorer residents who are particularly
disenchanted with the slow pace of improved living standards under
the Sirleaf government.

VOTER TURNOUT AGAIN LOW
--------------


5. (U) Locally based International Foundation for Election Systems
staff told emboff that turnout is typically low in Sub-Saharan
African by-elections, but several poll workers encountered by
Embassy observers blamed low turnout on voter apathy and increasing
disenchantment with the slow pace of economic recovery since the end
of the civil war. In radio interviews, registered voters attributed
their lack of interest to elected legislators' failure to make good
on promises made by politicians during the 2005 campaign. Indeed,
Liberians increasingly view representatives elected since 2005 as
unresponsive to constituent needs, preferring life in Monrovia or
visits to U.S.-based constituents over maintaining regular personal
contacts with country-based constituents. While a minority of
legislators is actively involved in home constituencies, many
Liberians believe that their legislators' actions have failed to
directly impact voters' daily lives.

RUN-OFF BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT NEC STILL LACKING
CAPACITY
-------------- --


6. (U) The NEC initiated an invigorated voter education campaign
along with an added day of training for poll workers before the
run-off. Observers again witnessed minor procedural and technical
problems at many polling locations, but unlike in the first round,
election materials were on hand for on-time opening of polling
places. Poll workers showed a better understanding of voting
procedures and a more customer-friendly attitude toward voters.
Officers of the Liberian National Police ensured that voting passed
without violence. Many poll workers and police reported to

MONROVIA 00000877 002 OF 002


observers that they had spent the previous night at the polling site
to protect the voting materials delivered the evening before.


7. (U) The Embassy issued a press release on December 1 praising
Montserrado voters, the NEC, poll workers and police on a successful
election, and congratulating Senator-elect Geraldine Does-Sheriff.
While noting that "some procedural problems remained," the statement
said Embassy observers witnessed "a free and fair electoral process
that was absent of fraud."

ELECTION DEFEAT A WAKE-UP CALL FOR RULING PARTY
-------------- --


8. (SBU) The defeat of the president's UP in heavily populated and
ethnically diverse Montserrado County indicates her party's
political weakness, despite the availability of state resources,
heavy financing, a recent merger with two prominent political
parties, and Sirleaf's enduring star power. The UP reportedly spent
more money during the campaign than the CDC, yet still failed to
win. Privately many party stalwarts found Urey unimpressive and
lacking political charisma. Soon after the election, UP Chairman
Charles Clarke publicly chastised party representatives in
government for giving jobs to diasporans and not taking care of the
party faithful.


9. (SBU) CDC officials trumpeted the defeat of the ruling party as
"a referendum on the [UP] by the Liberian people" even though the
by-election was only held in Montserrado County. George Weah hinted
during a radio interview on election day that he would win the
presidency in 2011. There were follow-up reports of CDC youth being
incited against the NEC and campaign remarks underscoring the
sensitive "Country/Congo" divide in pre-election rhetoric (Ref F).
The Ambassador met with Weah on November 23 and urged him to call
for peaceful conduct at the polls. She also stressed the need for
all parties to put aside divisive rhetoric.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Liberian electoral law has not required
registration of new voters since the 2005 election, leaving those
who reached voting age in the interim and those who have recently
returned disenfranchised. Urey's failure to connect with poorer
urban voters and George Weah's effective mobilization of youth
forces is a wake-up call for the president's party on the importance
of expanding its base beyond political and economic elites. The
start of ongoing registration of voters by the NEC, which will
enable greater youth participation in by-elections occurring before
the 2011 general election, is the necessary first step.

THOMAS-GREENFIELD