Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09MONROVIA841
2009-11-20 12:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Monrovia
Cable title:  

LIBERIA - LARGEST PARTIES PREPARE FOR RUN-OFF

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM LI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4023
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHMV #0841/01 3241242
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 201242Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONROVIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1474
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000841 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA - LARGEST PARTIES PREPARE FOR RUN-OFF

REF: A) MONROVIA 570 B) MONROVIA 691 C) MONROVIA 776
D) MONROVIA 821 E) MONROVIA 833

Classified By: Classified by: Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield for R
easons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONROVIA 000841

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM LI
SUBJECT: LIBERIA - LARGEST PARTIES PREPARE FOR RUN-OFF

REF: A) MONROVIA 570 B) MONROVIA 691 C) MONROVIA 776
D) MONROVIA 821 E) MONROVIA 833

Classified By: Classified by: Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield for R
easons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador called on Montserrado County
Senate run-off candidates in separate November 18 meetings
where she encouraged the Congress for Democratic Change's
(CDC) Geraldine Doe Sheriff and Unity Party's (UP) to prevent
the inciting of voters in the final November 24 round of the
election. This follows troublesome messages heard on the
campaign trail, including threats against National Elections
Commission (NEC) James Fromayan and attempts to emphasize a
"Country/Congo" divide between the more affluent, urbanized
voters and poorer residents who retain connections to the
countryside. Meanwhile, negotiations are on-going between
the run-off participants and those candidates who didn't make
it into the second round. Candidates and parties appear to
be gravitating toward Doe-Sheriff unless they can secure
promises of government appointments in exchange for
supporting Urey, the candidate of President Sirleaf's UP.
Urey will need all the help he can get. Even the president
concedes that he is a poor campaigner. END SUMMARY.

AMBASSADOR CAUTIONS CANDIDATES AGAINST INCITEMENT,
DIVISIVENESS
-------------- --------------


2. (C) In separate November 18 meetings with UP candidate
Clemenceau Urey and CDC candidate Geraldine Doe-Sheriff,
Ambassador discussed the candidates strategies for winning
the November 24 Montserrado County by-election run-off (Ref
E). The two candidates offered no clear tactical framework,
but each was confident of his or her ability to win the final
vote and claimed to be in negotiations for the endorsement of
first round opponents. Ambassador passed a strong message to
the candidates encouraging them to keep their supporters in
line and not allow the inciting of violence in the run-off.
She reiterated this message in public remarks to members of
Liberia's major press outlets after the Urey meeting.


3. (C) The Ambassador's advice to the candidates follows
reports of public messages on the campaign trail in the
run-up to the November 10 vote meant to incite unrest among

candidate supporters. Particularly troublesome are
allegations that 2005 CDC presidential candidate George Weah
warned a crowd on November 6 of "serious consequences" if his
party's candidate, Doe-Sheriff, was "cheated." (Ambassador
plans to meet with Weah to convey concerns about his
statement.) Additionally, NEC Chairman James Fromayan told
Ambassador in a November 17 meeting that he personally heard
commentators on the Weah-owned Power FM radio station call
for his ouster during election day broadcasts. During CDC
rallies, some youth leaders even openly threatened to burn
down Fromayan's house. The post-election period was
subsequently marred by rowdy CDC youths intimidating NEC
official completing final counting at Monrovia's City Hall
before moving on to for a celebration of their candidate's
first round win (Ref E). Slogans chanted at the follow-on
rally warned the NEC against committing electoral fraud.


4. (C) Many party officials and other public officials have
recently shared their fears of attempts to emphasize ethnic
divisions among Liberians at pre-election rallies by
exploiting Liberia's historic "Country/Congo," divide, which
many believe led to Samuel Doe's 1980 coup. CDC commentators
have attempted to link both President Sirleaf and her party's
candidate, Clemenceau Urey with Liberia's Americo-Liberian
ethnic group to gain support from Montserrado voters who
retain strong links to Liberia's rural ethnic groups. A
picture of Urey holding his nose was widely circulated in the
local press with a caption noting Urey's reaction to being
around poorer voters.

UREY NOT PRESIDENT'S CANDIDATE OF CHOICE
--------------


5. (C) President Sirleaf herself was openly frank about UP
candidate Urey's limited appeal in a November 16 meeting with
Ambassador. She confirmed several widespread reports,
including that Urey was not her preferred candidate. Sirleaf
said that she favored Professor Wilson Tarpeh, (who
eventually ran as the Alliance for Peace and Democracy
candidate and placed third in the November 10 election) as
the UP candidate. Tarpeh rebuffed Sirleaf's initial offer to
run as UP candidate, instead preferring to run as an
independent with UP support and the option of joining the
president's party if he won. Sirleaf apparently was never
informed of Tarpeh's counter offer and acquiesced to the
selection of Urey. In the president's view, Urey has not

MONROVIA 00000841 002 OF 002


been an effective campaigner. She noted that his strong
showing was a direct result of her efforts on his behalf.
However, she expects him to take his job as senator seriously
if he wins.

HORSE TRADING FOR SUPPORT
--------------


6. (C) Candidate horse trading for support has begun in
earnest. Realizing the importance of this race for the UP,
many candidates have reportedly offered to support Urey in
exchange for the possibility of government appointments.
Urey claims that Tarpeh has already provided campaigners for
his team. However, Tarpeh has not announced his support for
either candidate. Independent candidate and former warlord
Alhaji Kromah allegedly proposed exchanging his support for
eventual appointment as information minister. So far only
the Liberty Party and National Democratic Party of Liberia
have officially endorsed the CDC's Doe-Sheriff. However, a
group claiming to represent supporters of first round Liberty
Party candidate Darius Dillon has declared its support for
Urey. A lack of party discipline among the country's smaller
parties means that individual party members will likely offer
support to the candidate who makes the offer that best meets
their personal interests.


7. (C) COMMENT: Problems with the execution of this election
by an inexperienced NEC exacerbated fears of possible
electoral rigging. However, the NEC has admitted its
shortcomings and appears dedicated to improving its
operations in the run-up to the 2011 general election. More
worrisome are the irresponsible attempts by some political
forces to exploit ethnic differences among Liberians. These
are becoming par for the course in Liberia's electoral
battles, especially as many politicians with connections to
the Americo-Liberian families who once dominated the country
have jumped on the UP bandwagon. This "playing with fire"
pandering to voters ignores the simmering divisions and
suspicions that remain among voters in the countryside as
infrastructure conditions remain poor outside the greater
Monrovia area. The GOL and international partners must
emphasize a message of unity while continuing to make
development in the rural counties a focus of assistance
programming. The Embassy will again field observer teams for
the November 24 final round.
THOMAS-GREENFIELD