KEEPING BERLUSCONI CLOSE: NORTHERN LEAGUE STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MILAN 000095

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/PPD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON IT

SUBJECT: KEEPING BERLUSCONI CLOSE: NORTHERN LEAGUE STRATEGY
FOR EU ELECTIONS

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Classified By: CG Daniel Weygandt. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Northern League (LN) insiders Roberto Calderoli,
Minister for Legislative Simplification, and Giancarlo
Giorgetti, President of the Finance Committee in the Chamber
of Deputies described their strategy to make LN the hegemonic
political party in Northern Italy over the next few years.
Key to their plan is progress on fiscal federalism and
broader regional autonomy and securing one, or possibly two,
regional governor positions in the 2010 elections. Giorgetti
acknowledged an upward trend in polling for LN ahead of the
EU Parliamentary elections in June, but expressed concern
that if LN results were ""too good,"" it would create friction
with Berlusconi's People of Liberty party (PdL) and possibly
hurt the chances of an LN candidate to head the PdL ticket
for a key Northern region in 2010. LN's strategy in the
short term will be to keep Berlusconi as close as possible,
minimizing tension between the LN and PdL. Still, center
right candidacies for Northern Italian regions for the 2010
elections will likely be the key cause of discord within the
governing coalition over the next year. End summary.


2. (U) On April 20, the Consul General had lunch with two
top figures in Italy's Northern League political party:
Roberto Calderoli, Minister for Legislative Simplification,
and Giancarlo Giorgetti, President of the Finance Committee
in the Chamber of Deputies.

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Economic Crisis Disproportionally Felt in the North
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3. (SBU) Giorgetti asserted that the economic crisis is more
of an abstraction in Rome and that this explained the
somewhat limited response to the crisis from the government.
He explained that roughly half of Italians are retired and
receiving guaranteed pensions. Of the other half that works,
almost half work for the government. This leaves only a
quarter working for the private sector and at risk of losing
their jobs in the current downturn. The government jobs are
concetrated in Rome and southern Italy while private sector
jobs, particularly in small business are concentrated in
northern Italy. (Note: The concentration of small business is
densest in Lombardy and the Veneto, LN's traditional
strongholds. End note.) Thus, Giorgetti concluded, only a
quarter of the population is feeling the effects of the
economic crisis and three quarters of that group is in the
North. (Note: The proportions Giorgetti cites are rhetorical
flourishes, but most are roughly within the ballpark with the
exception of the symbolic exaggeration that three quarters of
private sector activity is in the North. Still, we are
certainly hearing increased concern from export-focused small
businesses throughout our district, particularly given the
recent dropoff in demand for exports. End note.)
Frustration with the government's response to the crisis is
increasing support for LN, according to Giorgetti.

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Future of the Northern League
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4. (C) Calderoli was unequivocal about the future of LN. He
expressed the LN goal was to be the hegemonic political party
in Northern Italy. He said the party would seek to achieve
this result through delivering concrete results, starting
with this year's push on fiscal federalism. He was clear
that the LN base expected real autonomy and that fiscal
federalism was at best a first step, particularly in the
current, relatively weak set of proposed reforms. He pointed
to the regional elections in 2010 as a key opportunity for
LN, noting they should be able to win two governorships
(there has never been an LN governor). He was confident that
LN governors would build support for the party through good
government at the regional level. (Note: This strategy has
worked well for LN at the local level, particularly with
strong mayors that are able to build support for the party
through competent administration and personal charisma.
Regional governors are more prominent and have more
authority, so LN hopes this strategy will work even better on
a regional level. End note.) When asked which two

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governorships LN hoped to get, Calderoli explicitly named the
Veneto suggesting LN had enough support to win outright there
and thus the center right coalition would support a LN
candidate to keep the LN from ""going it alone."" It was clear
that Lombardy was the second target, but Calderoli insinuated
that Lombardy was probably too prominent for Berlusconi's
People of Liberty party (PdL) to give up and that LN might be
able to give up Lombardy for a guarantee on Veneto and some
other concessions.

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LN Looking to 2010 Elections: Keeping Berlusconi Close
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5. (C) Calderoli and Giorgetti agreed that European
Parliamentary elections in June were of secondary importance
to the party. Nonetheless, LN is clearly keeping an eye on
those races. Giorgetti noted that polls showed increasing LN
strength ahead of the June elections, but that paradoxically
LN party leader Umberto Bossi was worried that the party
would get too much support. Further gains at the expense of
PdL this year could upset the coalition's balance, he argued,
and drive the PdL to seek to openly tarnish LN at every
opportunity ahead of the 2010 elections. Giorgetti said the
LN strategy in the short term would be to keep Berlusconi in
a bear hug, as close as possible. ""If Berlusconi says red,
we say red. If he says black, black for us too."" Giorgetti
sensed Berlusconi was looking to create friction to push LN
to be more extreme and improve PdL's support, but he was
clear LN would not fall for it.


6. (C) Comment: Gaining a governorship has been a Northern
League priority for quite some time. The conventional
political wisdom is that a strong showing in the upcoming EU
Parliamentary elections would give LN increased leverage to
ask for their candidate to head the center right ticket in at
least one key region in the 2010 elections. Since the
decision of a candidate will be made by political leaders, in
this case negotiated between Berlusconi and Bossi, LN is
astutely seeking to avoid friction until the 2010 elections -
including friction from performing too well in the EU
elections. Still, with polls showing a strong boost for LN
(though it is still early for polling by Italian standards),
LN will not have fine-tuned control over their election
showing nor over how good is too good according to
Berlusconi. Candidacies for the regional elections in
Northern Italy on the center right will continue to be a key
source of tension within the governing coalition until the
lists for the 2010 election are set. End comment.

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Bio Notes
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7. (SBU) Roberto Calderoli is 53. He was born in Bergamo,
Italy on April 18, 1956. He holds a degree in medicine and
dental surgery. He started out in politics with the Lombard
League, precursor to the Northern League, in the late 1980s.
He was first elected to Parliament in 1992 and has been a
member of Parliament since (Deputy until 2001, then Senator).
He twice served as Vice President of the Senate. In that
role during the Prodi Government from 2006-2008, he was
regarded as one of the legislative masterminds of the
opposition, working to engineer Prodi's fall from power. He
served as Minister of Institutional Reform from 2004-06 and
since 2008 has served as Minister for Legislative
Simplification (both times without portfolio). He plays a
key role in the LN party structure as well, serving as
coordinator of its regional secretaries (a key election
strategy position) since 2002. He is best known for his
controversial antics and anti-immigrant stance, including
unbuttoning his shirt in Parliament to reveal a t-shirt with
a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammad and calling for a national
""take a pig to your local mosque day"" to protest mosque
construction in Italy. Aside from party leader Umberto
Bossi, Calderoli is perhaps the most popular LN politician
with the party's rank and file. He is intellectually astute,
but cultivates an image of buffoonery to disarm his political
opponents.


8. (SBU) Giancarlo Giorgetti is 42. He was born in Cazzago
Brabbia, Italy (near Varese) on December 16, 1966. He has a
degree in economics from Milan's prestigious Bocconi
University. He was elected to the Chamber of Deputies in

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1996 and has been reelected in each subsequent session. He
served as President of the powerful Treasury Committee from
2001-06, and from 2008 to the present (he served as Vice
President of the Committee when the center right was in the
opposition from 2006-08). He has also served on the Foreign
Affairs Committee and is a member of the Italian
Parliamentary delegation to NATO. He is regional party
secretary for the Lombardy Region, a key LN stronghold. He
comes from Varese, the hometown of numerous other LN
heavyweights including Bossi and current Interior Minister
Maroni. He is extremely sharp and well-respected both inside
and outside of his party. Numerous contacts speculate that
he might eventually succeed Bossi as leader of the party (and
he tends to agree in private).
WEYGANDT
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