PADUA: DEMOCRATIC PARTY SUPPORT FADING

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STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/PPD

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TAGS: PGOV IT
SUBJECT: PADUA: DEMOCRATIC PARTY SUPPORT FADING

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1. (SBU) Summary. The Democratic Party (PD) in Northern
Italy hopes to offset likely losses in the June EU
parliamentary elections with some significant wins in the
accompanying local elections where the individual popularity
of candidates matters more. Key to this strategy would be
the reelection of the popular Mayor Flavio Zanonato in
populous, economically-strategic Padua. However, with the
center-right all but certain to name a strong challenger and
Democratic Party popularity still in the gutter, the Mayor's
reelection campaign is shaping up to be a tight race. End
summary.


2. (SBU) Padua's popular center-left mayor, Flavio Zanonato,
is (along with Turin's Sergio Chiamparino) a rare bright spot
for the Democratic Party in otherwise resoundingly
center-right Northern Italy. However, Democratic Party
support appears to be fading ahead of administrative
elections in June. Zanonato, as a dedicated leftist, is an
anomaly in Padua, which has traditionally had a center-right
political bent. Still, during his five-year tenure, Mayor
Zanonato has built his support base largely through decided
actions to close down and remove (and relocate within Padua)
residents from a ghettoized immigrant neighborhood that had
become a haven for drug traffickers. Local journalists and
politicians from both sides of the political spectrum note
that Zanonato will be going into his campaign for reelection
next June from a position of strength.


3. (SBU) Even with a strong and very popular candidate in
Zanonato the Democratic Party will face a very tight race to
keep hold of one of its only mayors in a significant northern
city. Zanonato took advantage of a temporarily weak
center-right united behind an unpopular mayor to win the last
election. The climate is significantly different now, with
the Democratic Party generally in disarray after sweeping
losses in the April 2008 national elections, and a likely
high-profile, popular center-right candidate to oppose
Zanonato - Mario Bertolissi, a well-regarded constitutional
lawyer and professor hand-picked by Veneto Regional President
Giancarlo Galan (the most prominent center-right politician
in the region). Similarly, Zanonato's popularity shows
little sign of spreading to help the party win other local
elections such as the presidency of Padua Province.


4. (SBU) Comment: The anticipated closeness of the race for
the popular Zanonato,s seat before the center-right has even
formally announced a candidate is emblematic of the
Democratic Party's overall struggle to shore up its base in
northern Italy let alone gain new supporters. The local
administrative and EU parliamentary elections in June will be
the first major electoral test since the center-left's defeat
in all regions of Northern Italy last April. Coupled with an
expected further drop in support for the Democratic Party in
the EU elections, the loss of one of a very few significant
mayorships in Northern Italy would be politically
embarrassing and demoralizing for an already moribund party.
Like other provincial and regional elections, the PD is
forced to rely in Padua on its candidate's personal
popularity because of the party's continuing struggles. End
comment.
WEYGANDT