MEXICO'S PRI APPROVES PLURINOMINAL CANDIDATE LIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000999

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO'S PRI APPROVES PLURINOMINAL CANDIDATE LIST

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay.
Reason: 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Mexico's political parties are completing
selection processes for candidates in the July legislative
contest, with the PRI the first to release its candidate list
for the proportional representational slots. The PRI has
stacked its plurinominal list with party luminaries or their
family members, and is perceived as being heavily weighted
toward the party's "old guard," including party president
Beatriz Paredes. The PRI arrived at the plurinominal
candidate list with little public infighting, even while
months of negotiation and attempts at powergrabs by party
luminaries certainly went on behind the scene. Nevertheless,
the PRI's proportional representation slate at first glance
appears to belie the PRI's attempt to cast the party as
focused on renewing its leadership cadre. End Summary.

Out with the Old, in With the Same?
--------------


2. (C) Mexico's political parties are completing selection
processes for candidates in the July legislative contest
after the deadline for submitting their slates was extended
-- at the National Action Party's (PAN) request -- to April

15. Of the three major parties, the Revolutionary
Institutional Party (PRI) was the first to settle on its
candidates for the 200 proportional representation, or
"plurinominal seats," in a unanimous vote last week. The
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) released its slate
within a day of the PRI. The PAN came in a more distant
third, which Center for Social and Public Opinion Research
(CESOP) Director General and PRI party insider Carlos
Casillas claims was intended to prevent PANistas who did not
receive a seat from defecting to the PRI.


3. (C) The plurinominal seats are divvied up amongst parties
according to vote share and are selected from open-party
lists for which the country is divided into five regional
districts. They are often used to shepherd into congress
party heavyweights or more controversial party members
without having to run in a popularly elected contest, and
those at the top five or so of the regional lists almost
certainly receive deputy slots. The PRI's National Executive
Committee (CEN) is charged with drawing up the lists, which
result from months of negotiation between the different party
powerbrokers and factions.


4. (C) The PRI has stacked its plurinominal list with party
luminaries or their family members, including party president
Beatriz Paredes, a niece of former President Salinas, the son
of former presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo, and
Madrazo's former campaign adviser, Carlos Flores Rico. The
slate is perceived by many local commentators and observers
as being heavily weighted toward the party's "old guard" --
either the leaders themselves or their close relatives --
rather than favoring new and emerging figures. Casillas
noted that Paredes' allies probably have the most
representation on the list, with 15 or 16 in top slots. Each
PRI governor has one or two proxies high on the list, with
PRI heavyweight and Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones also being
well represented (though less well than Paredes). Other PRI
luminaries with proxy representation, such as Madrazo and
Salinas, almost certainly chose to back their relatives to
ensure their interests are loyally represented in Congress.
Union leaders and CEN members also have representation on the
candidate slate.


5. (C) Paredes' decision to list herself as a plurinominal
candidate has drawn significant attention as a sign that she
may step down as party president. Paredes almost certainly
is planning on assuming leadership of the PRI Chamber of
Deputies bloc upon her election, which would make it near
impossible for her to continue her duties as president. She
has publicly indicated she will not relinquish her position,
but probably would have to take a year and a half leave of
absence from Congress in order to complete her party
presidency. Paredes could conceivably maintain the
presidency and settle with just a normal deputy slot, but PRI
contacts who know her say she would be unwilling to be simply
one of five hundred legislators. Her reluctance to turn the
party over to Jesus Murillo Karam, currently the Secretary

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General and second-in-command, probably stems from the fear
that it would increase the influence of Karam's ally, Mexico
State Governor Enrique Pena Nieto. Casillas notes that
Paredes' decision to pursue the PRI congressional leadership
probably is a good sign that she is, indeed, angling for the
presidential nomination for the 2012 presidential elections,
as PRI Congressional Coordinator would be a highly visible
platform from which to launch a campaign.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) As it has in previous party decisionmaking and in
sharp contrast other major parties, the PRI arrived at the
plurinominal candidate list with little public infighting.
Months of negotiation and attempts at powergrabs by party
luminaries -- such as Beltrones, Paredes, and several key
governors -- certainly went into the final list of 200, but
it was done and kept behind the scene. Nevertheless, the
PRI's proportional representation slate at first glance
appears to belie the PRI's -- and particularly Paredes' --
attempt to cast the party as focused on rebuilding itself and
renewing its leadership cadre.

Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
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