MEXICO'S PRI LOSES SUPPORT AS PAN STEPS UP ATTACKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000935

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO'S PRI LOSES SUPPORT AS PAN STEPS UP ATTACKS

REF: MEXICO 0652

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay.
Reason: 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. Recent polling has showed a sharp drop in
support of the PRI in the July electoral contests. The PRI's
apparent slump comes in the midst of what has been an
increasingly heated negative campaign by the PAN leadership
to tie the party to narcotrafficking and damage its
credentials in Congress. The PAN's negative campaign against
the PRI -- to which the PRI does not appear to be effectively
responding -- is in part taking advantage of real errors made
by its opponent, but also may be employing dirtier tactics.
Nevertheless, the PAN appears to have made little gain in the
past two months, suggesting that the negative campaign
tactics may only have momentarily called into question PRI
credentials instead of burnishing the PAN's. Repeated PAN
attacks could also engender a more complicated and rancorous
PAN-PRI dynamic, which could inadvertently complicate the
next legislative period for Calderon. The real winner in
July may be absentionism. End Summary.

PAN TURNS UP THE HEAT
--------------


2. (C) A poll conducted by Beruman and Associates between
March 20-23 and released in Mexico City daily "El Universal"
on March 30 showed a drop of almost ten percentage points in
respondents who said they would vote for the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) from a similar Berumen poll carried
out in late January and early February. 30.3 percent of
respondents to the most recent poll said they would vote for
the PRI if the July legislative elections were held today,
27.4 percent for the National Action Party (PAN),and 12.2
percent for the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD). In
contrast, the earlier survey revealed that 39.9 percent of
respondents said they would vote for the PRI, 25.1 percent
for the PAN, and 15.4 percent for the PRD. While the PAN
made a slight gain -- the 2.3 percent increase still falls
within the 4.6 percent margin of error -- the most
significant surge was in the number of undecided voters,
which saw a ten percent increase from 16.3 percent to 26.6
percent in the March poll. Local press reports that other
March polls also showed that the race may be tightening, such
as a GEA-ISA poll released on March 18 that had the PRI ahead
of the PAN by only two points, 41 percent to the PAN's 39
percent.


3. (C) The PRI's apparent slump comes in the midst of what
has been an increasingly heated negative campaign by the PAN
leadership to tie the party to narcotrafficking and damage
its credentials in Congress. The rhetorical sparring seems
to be the key variable in explaining the decreased levels of
support. PAN President German Martinez in particular over
the past two months has gone on the offensive against the PRI
-- most notably following the publication of the earlier
polls putting the PAN far behind its tricolor opponents --
and has accused the party of being obstructionist in
Congress, bearing responsibility for Mexico's current
security struggles, and selecting legislative candidates with
ties to organized criminal activities. Martinez publicly
charged PRI federal deputy candidate Hector Murguia
Lardizabal in Ciudad Juarez of being tied to the Juarez
cartel, which Murguia intends to dispute by bringing
accusations of slander before the Attorney General. PAN has
also has taken quick advantage of the PRI's chosen
gubernatorial candidate in Colima state, Mario Anguiano, by
highlighting his family ties to drug trafficking activities
-- his brother Humberto Anguiano is serving a ten-year jail
sentence for selling methamphetamines, while his cousin
Rafael Anguiano is imprisoned in the United States for
illicit activities committed in Los Angeles.


4. (C) The PAN's negative campaign against the PRI -- to
which the PRI does not appear to be effectively responding --
is in part taking advantage of real errors made by its
opponent. Political analyst Juan Pardinas notes that the
PRI's choice of Anguiano as the Colima gubernatorial
candidate was a major mistake. Even PRI Secretary General
Jesus Murillo Karam admitted that the choice of the candidate
was "ill-timed" and that he had questioned the decision. The

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party has not, however, moved to replace the candidate, nor
has it effectively explained itself for the choice.


5. (C) At the same time, some of the PAN's other accusations
may be a bit trickier. Pardinas suggests that the PRI's move
to call for more discussion in the Senate of the asset
forfeiture bill -- which has been heavily criticized by the
PAN as obstructionist -- may not have been pure politicking,
but instead driven by real concerns, such as property rights.
As the owner of a rental property, Pardinas opined that
Calderon's original proposal would not have offered him
sufficient protections, for example, if he unknowingly rented
to someone involved in organized criminal activities. Even
Attorney General Medina Mora last week said that the PRI's
proposed changes to the asset forfeiture law were "consistent
with the spirit" of the federal government's efforts.
Nevertheless, other congressional contacts have told Poloff
that the PRI was indeed blocking swift approval of the law to
punish the PAN for Martinez's attacks, which seems to be how
the Mexican public and press are interpreting the delay.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The decline in public support for the PRI and rise in
undecideds seems to indicate that the PAN's efforts to tar
the PRI as being in bed with the narcotics traffickers and an
obstacle to real security reform have to some extent paid
off. The PAN has said that it will follow the same "posture"
and "strategy" over the course of the campaign, and indeed
PAN President German Martinez's sharp criticisms of the
opposition have continued apace. Nevertheless, the PAN
appears to have made little gain in the past two months,
suggesting that the negative campaign tactics may only have
momentarily called into question PRI credentials instead of
burnishing the PAN's. Moreover, repeated PAN attacks could
engender a more complicated and rancorous PAN-PRI dynamic,
which could inadvertently complicate the next legislative
period for Calderon. In the end, the real winner in July may
be absentionism.

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