MEXICO'S CONGRESS CONSIDERS CREATION OF NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000651

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO'S CONGRESS CONSIDERS CREATION OF NATIONAL
GUARD

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Charles V. Barclay.
Reason: 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. The PRI has proposed constitutional changes
that would permit the creation of a new National Guard Force,
calling it a response to the deteriorating security situation
in Mexico, as well as to the lack of a trustworthy and
effective federal police force. Opinion is mixed in
political, military, and academic circles, and congressional
contacts have suggested that the prospects for the bill's
passage this session are slim. Nevertheless, the proposal
does highlight an ongoing discussion in Mexico of the
long-term role of the military in its domestic fight against
drug trafficking. Better equipping the nation's Armed Forces
for internal policing is not, however, a substitute for
meaningful police reform that looks to not only more
effectively and efficiently fight narcotrafficking, but also
treat the larger problem of impunity in Mexico. End Summary.

PRI Offers its Military Solution
--------------


2. (C) Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) Deputy Roberto
Badillo Martinez, member of the National Defense Commission,
proposed on February 19 constitutional changes that would
permit the creation of a new National Guard Force. While the
establishment of such an entity was included in the PRI's
2009-2012 campaign platform, released earlier this month, the
timing of the legislative initiative coincided closely with
Defense Secretary Guillermo Galvan's recent entreaties to
Congress for additional support of the military's counterdrug
activities. The PRI and Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD)
responded to Galvan's request by lauding the military's
sacrifice and accomplishments while questioning the efficacy
and appropriateness of extending the military's deployment as
frontline defenders against organized crime indefinitely.


3. (SBU) In this context, the PRI's initiative calls for
constitutional changes that would allow for the creation of a
National Guard force which would, over the next several
years, replace the military in its counterdrug mission. The
reform would give the Secretary for Defense (SEDENA) the
power to activate, organize, arm, and operate the force,
which would remain under SEDENA's mandate. The National
Guard would gradually acquire border, customs, and civil
protection responsibilities, as well. The new structure
would theoretically consist of highly trained soldiers and
officers pulled from the Army, Air Force, and Naval Schools.
Badillo also claimed that the Guard would coordinate closely
with the Attorney General's Office (PGR) when necessary.

Reaction Muted, Mixed
--------------


4. (C) The PRI is calling the initiative a response to the
deteriorating security situation in Mexico, as well as to the
lack of a trustworthy and effective federal police force.
Badillo claims that the project of building a national police
force will be, as it has been for decades, unviable, citing
surveys that claim over 50 percent of the police forces to be
corrupt and inefficient. In large part because of police
deficiencies, Badillo argues, the military has had to
shoulder too large of a part -- between 85 and 90 percent --
of the counterdrug burden. PRI deputies have also argued
that the military has other constitutional functions which it
needs to fulfill, while PRD leaders have contended that the
military's "presence in the streets" should not be legalized
for an indefinite time period. President Calderon's National
Action Party (PAN) has strongly backed the work of the
military, even while accepting that the National Guard
proposal should be carefully examined. The president of the
Senate's Justice Commission, PAN Senator Alejandro Gonzalez
Alcocer, said in an interview that he might be in agreement
with the proposal.


5. (C) Opinion is mixed in political, military, and academic
circles. Political analyst Juan Pardinas told Poloff on
February 23 that the proposal was worth considering and that
the creation of a more specialized, highly-trained guard
might be an effective crime-fighting tool. At the same time,
he wondered whether the military would sign on to a proposal

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that would recruit from its own ranks. National Autonomous
University of Mexico (UNAM) security and defense expert Raul
Benitez noted to Poloff on February 24 that the military is,
in fact, divided on the issue. Those sectors that support
establishing such a structure are generally less enthused
about the military's new internal policing role, while those
who oppose the measure see no problem with the current
counterdrug deployment. He also noted that the PRI has
long-standing and deep ties within the military and probably
has a relatively good read on its perspective on the issue.
Our Defense Attache's high-level military contacts have
looked at the United States' National Guard with curiosity,
but appear unprepared, presently, to promote the
establishment of a similar organization in Mexico. Indeed,
these same senior officers often comment that a US-type
National Guard would be impractical in Mexico.


6. (C) Other analysts have said that the proposal is an
affront against the country's police forces and an attempt to
substitute for police reorganization, which has stalled in
Congress due to opposition from the PRI and PRD. UNAM
security expert Pedro Isnardo de la Cruz opined in the press
that the proposal reflects disagreements amongst lawmakers
over the creation of a unified national police and that the
PRI is suggesting that there is a national emergency that the
public security system -- including the military and the
executive -- is far from resolving.

Prospects?
--------------


7. (C) The initiative, requiring constitutional amendments
and budget discussions, is a complicated one to propose in
the final, pre-election session of Congress. Head of the
Defense Commission, PAN Deputy Jorge Gonzalez Betancourt,
told Poloff on March 3 that he does not expect the measure to
pass this session, given lack of time and study given to the
issue. He said that the military in general is not as
enthused about a National Guard as is the PRI deputy who
proposed it, and noted that he himself would prefer to see
the military police force expanded vice a new force created.
PRI Deputy Edmundo Ramirez, claiming that the Secretary of
Defense is more open to the idea and that the PAN is slowly
coming on board, still opined that the law is complicated
enough that it merits more discussion and probably will not
be passed by both houses this session.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) While the prospects for the passage of constitutional
reform allowing for the creation of a National Guard at this
point look dim, the proposal does highlight an ongoing
discussion in Mexico of the long-term role of the military in
its domestic fight against drug trafficking. While most
political players admit that the Armed Forces at this
juncture are the best-equipped to deal with the organized
crime problem, there does not appear to be consensus as to
their continued, extended role in the struggle. Moreover,
the discussion of the creation of a National Guard -- or even
the expansion of the military police -- also indicates a
continued lack of faith in the country's police forces, as
well as for the prospects of meaningful reform. Despite this
apparent concern, better equipping the nation's Armed Forces
for internal policing is not a substitute for meaningful
police reform that looks to not only more effectively and
efficiently fight narcotrafficking, but also treat the larger
problem of crime, insecurity, and impunity in Mexico.


9. (C) Nobody wants the Army to return to the barracks more
than the military's senior leadership. The Mexican Armed
Forces understand very well, however, that the Mexican police
at all levels are simply not fully up to the counterdrug
task, that getting them to that level will take time, and
that continued military involvement in the interim is
necessary.

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http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
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