MEXICO CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MEETING BETWEEN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 000131

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MX
SUBJECT: MEXICO CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MEETING BETWEEN
CALDERON AND OBAMA


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Mexican media reported extensively on
the meeting between President-elect Barack Obama and Mexican
President Felipe Calderon at the Cultural Institute of Mexico
January 12 in Washington. The press reported a positive,
fluid dialogue between the two leaders on domestic and
binational issues such as drugs and arms trafficking, the
economic crisis and NAFTA, and immigration and other
binational issues, even though many commentators mentioned
that their encounter lacked concrete proposals. Opinion
pieces varied with some more critical than others but with
most cautiously optimistic. END SUMMARY.

Searching for a Niche
--------------


2. (SBU) The Mexican media generally characterized the
private lunch between Calderon and Obama at the Cultural
Institute of Mexico January 12 as a positive step in the
U.S.-Mexican relationship. Columnist Froylan M. Lopez
Narvaez (Reforma) opined that it was a difficult meeting for
Calderon because Calderon had made the mistake of signaling
his preference for McCain over Obama in the course of the
campaign. Lopez suggested the two got together out of
tradition (Mexican Presidents have met with the U.S.
president-elect going back to when Mexican President Lopez
Portillo met with U.S. President-Elect Reagan in 1981) but
described the exchange as "reserved" and focused on
"generalities." TV anchor and columnist Carlos Loret de Mola
alluded to the relationship of former Mexican presidents with
the U.S. According to Loret de Mola, former president
Salinas had wanted a trade agreement, Zedillo looked to the
U.S. for financial rescue and Fox had hoped the U.S. would
deliver on an immigration agreement. The problem with
Calderon, he suggested, was that he was not yet clear on his
number one priority. Loret also lamented that Mexico was not
a priority for the U.S. compared to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan,
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and even the European
Union.

Drugs and Arms Trafficking
--------------


3. (SBU) Press commentators welcomed reports that Obama had
assured Calderon that the U.S. would not leave Mexico on its
own in the fight against drug trafficking. The press also
reported on President-Elect Obama's commitment to address
Mexican concerns about arms trafficking. Salvador Garcia
Soto (Universal) however, went off on a different tangent.
He drew attention to the DOD Joint Operating Environment
2008 Report released last week which declared Mexico a
"failed state." He worried that the U.S. was starting to
place Mexico in the same category as Pakistan and considering
the potential to deploy troops to address an emerging crisis.
He saw the U.S. sending mixed messages. On the one hand,
President-Elect Obama and USG officials praised Calderon as
courageous. At the same, it's evident they have serious
concerns about Mexico's ability to face down the threat posed
by organized crime.

Financial Crisis, NAFTA and Immigration
--------------


4. (SBU) Mexican columnists generally stressed the need for
cooperation to mitigate the effects of the financial crisis
on U.S. and Mexican businesses. They contrasted the approach
of the two presidents on the question of NAFTA. Whereas
Calderon wanted to build on NAFTA, some perceived Obama as
wanting to revisit the current treaty to strengthen labor and
environmental standards. Congressional opinions were mixed.
PRI Coordinator of Deputies Emilio Gamboa said that Mexico
needed more details about possible next steps on NAFTA as a
renegotiation of the treaty could hurt Mexico. PAN Deputy
Coordinator Hector Larios, however, suggested that
renegotiation of the treaty on labor and environment issues
was doable. Several commentators believed Obama was
committed to working with Congress on immigration but
recognized it was premature to know what shape this work
would take.

Congress and Political Party Reaction
--------------


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5. (SBU) A number of Congresspersons and political party
officials described the meeting between the two leaders as
positive and important. Rejecting the suggestion that
Calderon had the meeting just to get his picture taken with
Obama, PAN Senator Humberto Aguilar maintained the meeting
served to formalize a new era in Mexico's bilateral
relationship with the U.S. PAN Deputy Coordinator Hector
Larios thought an emerging personal affinity between the two
leaders could advance the U.S.-Mexico relationship. Vania
Avila Garcia, National Coordinator of International Affairs
at Convergencia described the meeting as a good start, but
insisted Mexico needed to keep in mind that notwithstanding
his "good intentions," Obama was committed to advancing the
national interests of the U.S.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Overall, media commentators and political
leaders believed that Calderon's initial meeting with Obama
had served to establish a personal connection between the
two. They were able to touch on important themes in the
relationship including shared concern about the security
challenges Mexico faces and the economic challenges that
confront both of our countries. Reassured by Obama's
commitment to support Mexico and do more to fight arms
trafficking, they remained ambiguous about what to expect on
the question of NAFTA and immigration. Calderon scored
points for securing the meeting and receiving Obama's public
support. Some worried though that Mexico would not rank high
as a priority for the new U.S. administration and hoped that
future meetings between the leaders of our two countries
would tackle our shared agenda in greater detail. END
COMMENT.

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