H1N1 INFECTS MEXICAN POLITICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 001276

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ETRD KFLU TBIO PINR PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: H1N1 INFECTS MEXICAN POLITICS

REF: A. MEXICO 1269

B. MEXICO 1260


1. (SBU) Summary: While the Government of Mexico (GOM)
generally got high marks for its response to the H1N1 flu
outbreak, communication at times was lacking between federal
and state health authorities, and in Mexico City the three
main parties representing federal, state and local efforts
often did not coordinate operations. The PRI Governor of the
State of Mexico and the PRD Mayor of Mexico City, potential
presidential candidates in 2012, worked independently of the
federal government, raising questions about whether they
sought political advantage. Separately, some commentators
suggested the GOM had used the crisis to divert attention
from security problems in the country. With the outbreak
turning out less serious than first believed, it is not
unlikely some of the government's political opponents could
fault it for overreacting. It remains unclear how the
government's performance will play into the midterm
elections. End Summary.

Government Responsiveness and Coordination
--------------


2. (SBU) The Mexican public thus far has generally approved
of the federal government's handling of the H1NI flu
outbreak, according to preliminary public opinion polls.
Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova was given high marks for
addressing questions raised by the press in regular public
briefings. Although President Calderon was criticized for
keeping a low profile at the beginning of the crisis, he
recently made two televised addresses to the nation. He
tried to pre-empt criticism that his administration
overreacted to the flu, indicating that it had saved lives
and allowed the rest of the world to prepare for the
epidemic. Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate
Adriana Terrazas, however, argued that the current outbreak
was a "distraction" maneuver by the federal government, to
divert attention from the true "pandemic" of crime and
violence. Ruling National Action Party (PAN) National
President German Martinez Cazares, however, dismissed the
notion that politics had influenced the government's response.


3. (SBU) Each of the three major parties assumed a major role
at the epicenter of the crisis in the Mexico City
metropolitan area, but coordination was uneven. Mexico City
Mayor Marcelo Ebrard from the opposition Democratic
Revolution Party (PRD) held his own news conferences and
issued his own decrees, including the controversial decision
to close Mexico City establishments including restaurants,
bars, theaters, gyms, etc. and institute a city code alert
system. At the same time, he made his first trip to Los
Pinos, the presidential residence, in the three years since
Felipe Calderon was elected, for a meeting of Mexican
governors. At the meeting, Calderon reportedly called for
stepped up communication about the disease between federal
and state health authorities.


4. (SBU) PRI State of Mexico Governor Enrique Pena Nieto
pointedly decided not to close local establishments though
many appear to have closed on their own. Local PAN leaders
maintained that the governor had sought political gain over
the crisis with frequent public appearances in the place of
his health secretary. The PRD filed a complaint with the
State of Mexico Electoral Institute claiming the city of
Nezahualcoyotl had distributed letters with a personal
message from the governor about the success of the state's
efforts. More recently, the governor has proposed Mexico
undertake an international campaign to improve the global
perception of Mexico and stimulate the tourism industry.

Political Reaction to the Stimulus Package
--------------


5. (SBU) In an attempt to mitigate the economic impact of the
H1N1 virus, the Government of Mexico (GOM) announced a USD
1.4 billion stimulus package in the form of a number of tax
breaks. PRI Senate leader Manlio Fabio Beltrones maintained
that the package was "insufficient" and that "the federal
government should make a better effort to attend to the

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(tourism) sector." Mexico City Finance Secretary Mario
Delgado also criticized the package, arguing that it was
"insufficient in terms of size and timing to tackle the scale
of the crisis." Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard had already
expressed reservations regarding the federal measures,
arguing that "there should be a national effort (to rescue
the economy) comparable to the curent health
measures...Isolated measures will not suffice...to overcome
the challenge we are facing." Nuevo Leon business leaders
were highly critical of the government's plan to reduce taxes
to support businesses hurt by H1N1 flu closings, calling the
measures absurd. They told the local press that the package
was a farce, as the government already was unable to collect
the taxes that were reduced in the relief plan.

H1N1 and Elections
--------------


6. (SBU) Even as the campaign season for midterm elections
began May 3, large political rallies of more than 40 people
were discouraged. With big rallies ruled out, campaigns are
pouring more money into virtual outreach through the internet
and even text messages. Nonetheless, the "legitimate
government" website of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)
reported that 2000 followers attended an event in Tabasco
this week, in which AMLO politicized the flu issue.
President Felipe Calderon "alarmed people through the media
and spread fear among Mexicans," he said. The PRD claims
that Calderon is using the crisis for political gain.


7. (SBU) Federal deputy candidates in Chihuahua seized on the
flu epidemic for their campaigns. PRD candidates Xochitl
Flores and Jose Luis Olivas announced their intention to
distribute hundreds of packages with bleach and detergents
among their electorate, as well as yellow surgical masks with
their party logo. PAN candidate Hector Hernandez announced
that he would start his campaign by distributing surgical
masks and information leaflets on the current flu epidemic.
Other candidates have also stamped the masks with their names
and party logos.

Xenophobia and Trade
--------------


8. (SBU) Meanwhile, members of the Permanent Commission of
Congress, a body that sits weekly during the periods that the
full Senate and Chamber of Deputies are in recess, called for
the federal government to condemn "xenophobia" against
Mexicans abroad due to the flu outbreak. Much of the
indignation was directed toward China, where groups of
Mexicans had been quarantined. PRI Senator Recardo Cervantes
accused China of lacking the moral ground to judge Mexico on
public safety issues, pointing to its history of producing
products manufactured with toxic materials. Mexican
authorities sent an airplane to China to transport the dozens
of Mexicans who had been held in quarantine despite the fact
that none had shown any flu-like symptoms. They returned to
a hero's welcome and were received by Mexico's First Lady.


9. (SBU) The Mexican Council of Foreign Trade (COMCE)
reported that Mexican exports also are being "discriminated"
against at foreign borders around the world. Many Mexican
shipments are being detained for more than 48 hours in order
to allow for exhaustive inspections by customs agents. In a
joint press release, the governments of the U.S., Canada and
Mexico asked the world not to use the H1N1 flu as a trade
barrier, and reiterated that their governments are doing
everything they can to control effectively the outbreak.
During a speech in Michoacan, Calderon remarked that the
demonization of Mexican products and people was unwarranted
and described the return of the Mexican aid ship from Haiti
as "unnecessary". The Foreign Relations Secretariat (SRE)
issued a statement to the UN, urging it to stop the
discriminatory measures many countries are taking against
Mexican citizens.

U.S. Scores Points
--------------


10. (SBU) Most media continue reporting good relations

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between Mexico and the U.S. One columnist noted, "While our
Latin American 'brothers' have turned their back on us during
this difficult time, Barack Obama has shown us more than one
gesture of kindness and solidarity." Assistant Secretary for
Health Mauricio Hernandez acknowledged the 400,176 doses of
Tamiflu and the USD 7 million donated by the USG. He also
gave special thanks to the U.S. for keeping its 3000 mile
long border open.


11. (SBU) Comment: While most still believe the GOM may have
prevented a major outbreak, there is a growing sentiment in
some circles that government officials overreacted and
unnecessarily hurt the economy, especially in the services
and tourism sectors. The GOM's new GDP growth forecast for
2009, adjusted to include the maximum negative 0.5 percent
impact of H1N1, now stands at negative 4.5 percent.
Independent analysts believe the economy could shrink even
further -- maybe even as much as 5.9 percent. The outbreak
managed to overshadow the drug war, which continues to cause
heavy casualties. At this juncture it remains unclear which
party, if any, will reap the greatest advantage from the flu
crisis. End Comment.
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
BASSETT