SITREP 14 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MEXICO 001269

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS;
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR
MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR
CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DPPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 14 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY

REF: MEXICO 1250 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) SUMMARY
--------------
The GOM announced that the number of confirmed H1N1 cases now
stands at 1,204 including 44 fatalities. The two additional
fatalities were from analysis of backlogged samples. Mexico
City reduced its alert level from orange to yellow which
means that normal business and social operations may continue
with strict adherence to government sanitation guidelines.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: With the gradual return to normalcy, the
President and the Health minister warned that the influenza
outbreak was still a very serious threat to public health and
urged continued adherence to government prescribed sanitation
precautions. The President also remarked that the
demonization of Mexican products and people was unwarranted
and described the return of the Mexican aid ship from Haiti
as Q&unnecessary.Q8

MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: The Mexico City government decided to
reduce the alert system from orange to yellow. That means
that gyms, bars, etc. can open. Soccer matches will still be
played without an audience. Work places, restaurants,
theaters will have screening systems to ask a client with
symptoms to leave the establishment. All places of business
are to maintain strict adherence to the governmentQ,s
sanitation guidelines and provide ample access to hand
washing or sanitizing facilities. High school and university
students returned to classes.



3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS
-------------- --------------

No new information to report.


4. (SBU) STATISTICS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a
May 7 press conference that the number of confirmed cases now
stands at 1204 that includes 44 fatalities. The two latest
fatalities were a woman in San Luis Potos! and a man in
Tlaxcala. The Health Secretary clarified that these were not
new cases but that rather dated cases that had just been
confirmed following an analysis of samples. Cordoba further
indicated that the percentage breakdown of fatalities stands
at 49.5% women and 50.5% men.

STATE BY STATE: The GOM did not issue state by state numbers
of confirmed cases on May 7. The table below reflects the
current state-by-state breakdown of fatalities:

CHIAPAS Q) 1
DF - 29
HIDALGO Q) 1
MEXICO STATE Q) 5
OAXACA Q) 1
SAN LUIS POTOSI Q) 4
TLAXCALA - 3


5. (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES
--------------

The Health Unit has seen a decrease in the volume of
suspected cases of H1N1 influenza, however continues to test
when presented with flu-like symptoms. It registered no
additional confirmations or probable cases.



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6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES
--------------

No new information to report.



7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES
--------------

Call volume to the Embassy switchboard returned to normal
levels with 56 calls regarding visa and passport issues
received. In the 24 hours through 0700 AM May 7, the
switchboard received 0 H1N1 related inquiries.

Since the cessation of visa operations, approximately 10,000
visa appointments were cancelled nationwide. However,
Consular operations do not expect a significant increase in
backlog. Rescheduling will be conducted by the scheduling
service.


8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES
--------------
CIUDAD JUAREZ: The Chihuahua State Secretary of Health and
the El Paso Health Department report that there are 4
confirmed cases of H1N1 virus in Chihuahua and 7 confirmed
cases in El Paso. More than 216,000 high school and
university students in the state returned to classes on May

7. State health authorities disclosed to Post that the
number of possible H1N1 cases may increase in the coming
weeks as schools resume normal operations.

With the exception of bars and nightclubs - which remain
closed - most businesses and government services are now
operating on a normal schedule. Restaurant-bars and event
halls are open, but must close by 1 a.m. and limit the number
of patrons to 50 percent of normal capacity. There is
growing disquiet among leaders in the service sector, who
argue that local and state authorities have not adequately
explained their decision regarding business closures and
suspended hours.

Occupancy rates at a selected sample of Juarez hotels are
approximately 30 percent lower than the week prior to the
H1N1 outbreak. Several managers of hotels that do not cater
to visa applicants cited occupancy rates as low as 14 percent
in recent days. This figure contrasts with hotels in the
immediate vicinity of the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad
Juarez, which report an average occupancy rate of 25 percent.
The Director for Border Tourism in Ciudad Juarez asserted
that the H1N1 outbreak, combined with the high levels of
narco-violence, threaten to stigmatize the Chihuahua tourism
industry.
On May 7, non-immigrant visa services resumed with a very
small number of applicants. Normal NIV operations will
begin on May 11 and immigrant visa services will begin on May

18.

GUADALAJARA: Despite having maintained that Jalisco remained
H1N1 free, Jalisco Governor Gonzalez announced at a press
conference yesterday afternoon that Jalisco now has 15
confirmed cases. He stated that they were diagnosed as
potential cases early and the patients will be able to return
to their normal routines soon. The ages of the patients
range from 12 to 40, and the individuals are from different
families and different neighborhoods. Jalisco still has
additional cases pending confirmation. At this point, the
number of infections in Jalisco only represents 1.34 percent
of the total in Mexico.

Most universities opened today, and while students and
employees were not required to wear masks, they were
encouraged to do so. Additional preventative measures
consisted of pre-entry screeing in the form of a series of
questions, similar to what has been used in airports, to

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identify potentially infected individuals. Schools and
public institutions, including public transportation, have
implemented a routine cleaning program to disinfect all
public areas. Some public schools are waiting for sanitary
supplies to arrive.

The Consejo Empresarial Mexicano de Comercio (COMCE) reported
today that already low export numbers from Jalisco have
diminished further due to the H1N1 virus. Exports were
already down due to the economic situation; numbers recorded
prior to the outbreak marked a decrease from last year of
between 15 and 18 percent. COMCE announced that it expects
another 10 percent decrease due the outbreak. It cited
shipments received at ports, such as Los Angeles, that
undergo a strict inspection process delaying delivery by 24
to 48 hours. COMCE asserts that a recovery will take up to
six months. Overall, it expects exports to decrease 15
percent in 2009 in comparison with 2008.

NIV scheduled 200 appointments for today, but only 40 slots
were filled. Additional appointments are open for tomorrow.
The NIV section is prepared for a full schedule of
appointments on Monday, but, due to the flu, does not
anticipate that all slots will be filled. ACS again fielded
a full schedule of appointments, but with a significant drop
in emergency requests.

HERMOSILLO: No new information to report.

MATAMOROS: No new information to report.
MERIDA: Hotel occupancy in Cancun is now at 20 percent and
six hotels have announced temporary closure (about half
through May 15 and the rest through May 31). The hotels
that are temporarily closing have multiple properties and are
consolidating their diminished volume of occupants into a
fewer number of hotels.
The Governors of Yucatan and Quintana Roo separately met with
representatives from the cruise ship industry to urge their
return to Mexico sooner than the June 15th date previously
announced.
Throughout the peninsula, universities and high schools,
cinemas, shopping centers, and archeological sites are
reopening. There is a noticeably lower level of activity
throughout the region. Local press reports predict a slow
recovery and estimate that low demand will continue in the
tourist sector for at least six months.
The Consulate opened limited visa services today with
capacity for 100 applicants. Thirty were scheduled.
However, only one applicant appeared for his interview.
MONTERREY: State governments emphasized that they are open
for business, even as they clean schools and urge citizens
not to lower their guard. In the states of San Luis Potosi
and Durango the hospitals report that consultations about flu
have stabilized, or in the case of Durango they have
decreased 10%. However, since the medical consultations in
Durango had increased 50%, they are still 40% higher than
normal. In Nuevo Leon, SNTE teachers union head Elba Ester
Gordillo said that schools would still be closed for
teachersQ, day May 15, but she may agree to extending
classes. Nuevo Leon Governor Gonzalez Paras stated that
citizens and businesses acted responsibly, and he urged a
return to a normal life in the community. In San Luis Potosi
(SLP) the government again publicized that the state
hospitals will soon have the capability to analyze flu
samples without sending them to Mexico City. The
governments also seek to address the impact on business.
Zacatecas proposed a state plan to lower taxes to help
hotels, nightclubs and other affected businesses. The
federal government plans to fine 71 businesses in Coahuila
that did not close May 1-5.

The number of confirmed cases climbed in several states. In
Nuevo Leon there are now nine confirmed H1N1 cases (up from
four yesterday). The laboratory samples for these patients

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were taken between April 23-26 and Nuevo Leon just found out
the results. All are recovering, and two received anti-viral
medication. In San Luis Potosi (SLP),four people died from
H1N1 virus (up from one). SLP has 96 cases of H1N1 flu, 227
cases have not been analyzed, and 44 people remain
hospitalized. Zacatecas still has 33 confirmed H1N1 cases.
Durango did not update the number of confirmed cases, but as
a precaution 41 people are on anti-viral medication.
Coahuila proudly proclaims that it is still H1N1 free.

A Monterrey tourism official stated that hotel occupancy is
at 20%, vs 60% normally. He also stressed that the May 1-5
weekend is a big one for regional tourism, and now that has
been lost. Tourist operators have also seen companies cancel
business meetings through June, although events are still on
for July onward. The Nuevo Leon maquila association
continued to complain about the four businesses that were
fined for opening from May 1-5. Yale University has also
decided to cancel its summer exchange program with Monterrey
TEC University for 2009. In addition, approximately 25
flights to San Luis Potosi have been cancelled because people
were Q&afraidQ8 to visit the tourist sites there.

In Consulate Monterrey, there are no suspected cases of H1N1
flu among FSO or LES staff and their dependents. About 200
NIV applicants will come in today to the consular section for
rescheduled interviews. The consular section is also quickly
rescheduling H2 interviews for next week. 1,174 H2
interviews are scheduled for enrollment at the ASC Monday May
11 and consular interviews Tuesday May 12.

NOGALES: No new information to report.

NUEVO LAREDO: The public is calm and many people continue to
wear face masks but in decreasing numbers. Public awareness
remains high regarding the possibility of contacting H1N1 but
public anxiety seems to be decreasing. There are still no
confirmed cases of H1N1 in Neuvo Laredo.


TIJUANA: The number of confirmed cases for Baja California
remains at 18. According to the state health secretary,
eleven of the 18 are women and the age range of cases extends
from six months to 37 years of age. He also repeated that
there is no known connection among the victims. Schools are
set to re-open in keeping with the scheduled outlined by the
federal government. In preparation, all schools are being
cleaned and disinfected prior to opening. Sectors of the
state are beginning to evaluate the economic losses that the
flu alert has caused or contributed to. There was reportedly
a 90% drop in hotel occupancy, a 10% drop in consumer
purchases, a 70-80 % drop in service industry businesses, and
essentially no business in the tourism sector along Avenida
Revoluci"n. The president of CANACO stated that the losses
can be tied to the measures imposed by the federal government
to combat the flu epidemic, even though it at no moment
affected Tijuana. He suggested that the measures taken were
Q&exaggeratedQ8, comparing the response in Tijuana to that of
San Diego. Consular is resuming normal services, with a
phase-in of NIV appointments this week and a full re-opening
next week.

MEXICO CITY CONSULAR DISTRICT: No new information to report.


9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS
-------------- --------------
On May 7, the top item was the reopening of businesses in
Mexico City. The local Scientific and Sanitation Vigilance
Committee lowered the alert level and announced that all
businesses, including movie theaters, night clubs, stadiums,
auditoriums, gyms, etc. in Mexico City could resume their
services entirely. In spite of the optimism, President
Calderon and Health Secretary Cordova once again reminded the
public that the virus is not yet under control and that high

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sanitation standards must be maintained. Secretary Cordova
even said that it will take weeks to control the virus.
Another relevant topic in the coverage was that President
Calderon once again criticized foreign governments for the
actions they have taken to prevent the A H1N1 flu. During a
speech in Michoacan, he reproached Haiti for rejecting a
Mexican ship with humanitarian aid. In contrast, most media
continue reporting of good relations between Mexico and the
U.S. As one columnist noted, Q&While our Latin American
Q brothersQ, have turned their back on us during this
difficult time, Barack Obama has shown us more than one
gesture of kindness and solidarity.Q8
Also prominent in the press coverage was the announcement
that Canadian and U.S. scientists announced advances in the
development of a vaccine against influenza. Q&Scientists
could decode the genetic sequence of the virus, which will be
crucial in the elaboration of a vaccine.Q8



10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

--The Tourism Secretariat and the Tourist Promotion Council
are already working on a set of measures to stimulate
tourism. Currently, the tourism sector is measuring the
damages caused by the H1N1 flu outbreak in hotels, airlines,
cruises and congresses/seminars.

--The demand for canned and frozen food, detergents and soap
increased during the past week. The press reported that the
prices of some of these products also rose and some companies
were forced to increase their production lines to meet the
larger demand. Other companies said they had enough stock
and they only delivered before the scheduled time.

--Restaurants were among the most affected businesses last
week. Yesterday they began to open at 50% of their capacity,
but today the Mexico City government authorized them to
conduct business as usual provide they took all the actions
already announced by the government. According to the
association of franchises, sales dropped by 90%.

--The alert also had a negative impact on facilities leased
for baptisms, weddings, parties, etc. Large party and
conference rooms have said they had losses of USD 228,000.

--The Pacific Airport Group reported that due to the economic
recession and the flu it lost about 15.3% of passengers
flows. The group expects more losses in the coming months
until the perception of MexicoQ,s effective controls of the
epidemic changes abroad.

--Despite the governmentQ,s incentives to attract cruises to
Mexican shores, the industry does not expect to come back
until the sanitary alert is over. Carnival announced that it
will resume its routes to Cozumel on June 15.

--The Confederation of National Trade Chambers (Concanaco)
said that sales have declined by 60% and that their income
has fallen by USD 625 million. The services and tourism
sectors have reported losses for more than USD 337 million.
The most affected have been the micro, small and medium-sized
businesses, such as restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. The
industry is asking for more fiscal stimulus measures.

--The Mexican Council of Foreign Trade (COMCE) reported that
Mexican exports are also being Q&discriminatedQ8 against at
foreign borders around the world. Many Mexican shipments are
being detained for more than 48 hours in order to allow for
exhaustive inspections by customs agents. Because of these
delays, COMCE reports that companies are seeing their foreign
sales fall by 25%. Exports had already fallen 18% during the
first quarter of the year as a result of lower demand in the
U.S.

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--In a joint press release, the governments of the U.S.,
Canada, and Mexico asked the world not to use the H1N1 flu as
a trade barrier, and reiterated that their governments are
doing everything they can to effectively control the outbreak.

--The Fiscal deficit is expected to increase from 1.8% to 2%
of GDP - Finance Secretary Carstens acknowledged yesterday
in a TV interview that the fiscal deficit would likely rise
from the authorized 1.8% to 2% of GDP as a result of the H1N1
outbreak, because of a lower tax collection for about USD 760
million. However, the government does not expect to cut
spending this year because it wants to keep stimulating the
economy. Carstens said that the government has also kept and
will keep foreign and domestic debt under control.



11. (U) TRANSPORTATION
--------------
Airlines view favorably the GOMQ,s announcement of economic
relief but say more is needed for the aviation sector. Their
wish list includes a reduction in landing fees, a cut in the
airport use tax assessed on passengers, a subsidy of the
price of jet fuel, and a campaign to cleanse the countryQ,s
flu-sullied image. One airline country manager notes he
expects Cancun to move aggressively and lead the recovery --
cutting prices, recruiting tourists, and refilling empty
airplanes. The same contact cited resumption of port calls
by cruise lines as a key indicator by which to measure
returning confidence.



12. (U) POLITICAL IMPACT
--------------

No new information to report.



13. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE
--------------

The Charge and senior CDC and OFDA representatives delivered
remarks during a Ceremony of Appreciation at the Secretariat
of Health on May 7. The remarks thanked the GOM for its hard
work and openness during this crisis and pledged continued US
assistance. During the ceremony, Mauricio Hern ndez,
Asssitant Secretary for Health, acknowledged the 400,176
doses of Tamiflu and the 7 million dollars donated by the
USG. He also gave special thanks to the U.S. for keeping our
3000 mile long border open.
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
BASSETT