SITREP 13 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001250

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA,
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES)
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER)
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 13 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

REF: MEXICO 1236 and previous


1. (U) SUMMARY
--------------
The GOM announced that the number of confirmed H1N1 cases now stands
at 1,112 including 42 fatalities. Most of the fatalities were
registered in April as Mexico continues to clear a backlog of
samples. Restaurants in Mexico City and throughout other parts of
the country reopened and traffic picked up. Mission Mexico will
defer non-essential temporary duty travel as long as the CDC Travel
Alert advises all Americans to postpone non-essential travel to
Mexico.



2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: The Secretary of Finance announced a 17.4
billion peso package to stimulate the economy. The package will
include tax cuts for cruises and airlines, as well as deductions in
social security bills for small businesses. The business sector gave
the measure mixed reviews. The states are also being asked to come
up with an additional 1.4 billion pesos in tax credits.

An Aeromexico flagship 777 landed early the morning of 6 M at Mexico
City International Airport's Presidential Hangar and discharged some
138 Mexican nationals released from Chinese quarantine. Mexico's
First Lady was on hand to welcome home the travelers.

MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: The Mexico City and Washington, D.C. metro
systems traded additional information on pandemic preparedness and
disinfecting stations and frequent-touch surfaces. Mayor Ebrard
scrubbed clean a Metrobus in a 5 May media appearance to highlight
the heightened sanitary measures implemented across the capital's
transportation system.
The Mexico City government has not determined when establishments
where large numbers of the public gather will be allowed to reopen -
including bars, discos, night clubs, movie theaters, gyms, and
convention centers.



3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS
-------------- --------------

No new information to report.


4. (SBU) STATISTICS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Health Secretary Cordova announced in a May 6
press conference that the number of confirmed cases now stands at
1,112 (out of 2164 total cases tested),including 42 fatalities.
Most of the fatalities were registered in April, but deaths were
also registered on May 5 (1),May 4 (1),May 3 (1) and May 1 (1).
Sixteen of the deceased were between 20 and 29 years old. The
majority of the deceased were from Mexico City.

STATE BY STATE: The GOM did not issue state by state numbers of
confirmed cases on May 5, but did issue a state by state breakdown
of confirmed deaths:

CHIAPAS - 1
DF - 29
HIDALGO - 1
MEXICO STATE - 5
OAXACA - 1
SAN LUIS POTOSI - 3
TLAXCALA - 2


5. (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES
--------------

The Health Unit has tested a total of 25 Embassy staff or EFMS for
possible H1N1 influenza. One test has been confirmed and one test
is probable. Ten members of the Embassy community are taking
Tamiflu.


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The Charge hosted a virtual Town Hall meeting on May 6 to address
the Embassy community's questions and concerns about the H1N1
outbreak.


6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES
--------------

The EAC decided to defer further discussion about authorized
departure. With schools, restaurants and businesses reopening in
Mexico, concerns within the community have waned. The Embassy will
continue to monitor the situation closely and reconvene the EAC if
necessary.

The EAC decided to continue deferring non-essential temporary duty
travel as long as the CDC Travel Alert advising all Americans to
postpone non-essential travel to Mexico.


7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES
--------------

Call volume to the Embassy switchboard continues to decline. In the
24 hours through 0700 AM May 6, the switch received 8 H1N1 related
inquiries.

Effective Wednesday, May 6, ACS resumed normal operations at the
U.S. Embassy and at consulates nationwide. All nonimmigrant visa
operations at consular posts in Mexico will resume normal operations
on Monday, May 11; some nonimmigrant visa applicants will be seen on
Thursday and Friday, May 7 and 8. All nonimmigrant visa applicants
will be contacted directly by the scheduling service about their
rescheduled appointments. Immigrant visa appointments will resume
normal operations on Monday, May 18.


8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES
--------------
CIUDAD JUAREZ: There are 4 confirmed cases of swine flu in
Chihuahua. Since April 25, state health authorities have processed
90 possible cases of swine flu in Ciudad Juarez - - 2 tested
positive for swine flu, 32 were negative, 17 tested positive for
seasonal flu, and 39 are pending laboratory results.
CDC reported to Post on May 6 that there are 19 possible and 7
confirmed cases of swine flu in El Paso County, six of which are
school-aged children. All patients are recovering without
complications. The CDC said that most of the individuals confirmed
to have swine flu in El Paso had not traveled to Mexico, suggesting
that they contracted the virus through secondary transmission. The
number of new possible cases referred by Customs and Border Patrol
(CBP) from international bridges in El Paso continues to trend
downward. El Paso County announced that it has no plans to close
schools due to the swine flu.

The U.S. Consulate General reopened on Wednesday, May 6, 2009.
Non-immigrant visa services will reopen slowly from May 6 to May 8,
with full operations resuming on May 11. Immigrant visa services
will resume on May 18. Panel physicians will re-open the week of
May 11 to receive applicants with appointments the week of May 18.


GUADALAJARA: Governor Emilio Gonzalez maintains that Jalisco
remains H1N1 free but acknowledges 9 probable cases are still being
studied. To date, Jalisco has referred approximately 300 cases for
examination. Most universities reopened today, but the University
of Guadalajara and all grammar schools remain closed. University of
Guadalajara scientists reported today that, although the daily
reported number of new cases in DF has declined, the danger has not
passed and new cases are likely to increase in other Mexican
states.

As Jalisco prepares to resume cultural activities and re-open its
cinemas, the government is examining ways to continue to improve
preventative sanitary measures. Political campaigns opened
officially today, but with restrictions on public gatherings.
Nevertheless, campaign activities were witnessed over the weekend.
RSO reports police checkpoints on major highways over the weekend to
diminish the potential spread of H1N1. Police checked the
temperature of travelers and questioned them. NIV handled
approximately 20 cases today. These cases were applicants who could

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not be reached when the consulate closure was communicated. ACS
handled their normal work load plus the remaining cases from last
week. They reported that nearly every applicant requested emergency
processing. Additionally, they reported an increase in the number
of cases referred to fraud.


HERMOSILLO: Sinaloa reports no confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza.
Sonora reports two laboratory confirmed reports of H1N1 influenza:
a 15 year old boy in Hermosillo who has recovered and an 8 year old
boy receiving treatment for the flu at the DIF hospital for children
in Hermosillo. This is his third day fever free and he is expected
to be released in the next 48 hours. It is believed that both cases
were contracted while the Mexican children were visiting in the
U.S.

MATAMOROS: Matamoros reported 36 suspected cases of H1N1 flu.
Matamoros officials closed a popular beach amid growing concerns
over the H1N1 flu through May 6. Tamaulipas Governor Eugenio
Hernandez said that the swine flu is entering a "phase of control".
Across the river, the Texas Rio Grande Valley is recording its first
death from the H1N1 flu or "swine flu". State health officials are
reporting a 33-year-old Harlingen woman, who had underlying health
conditions, died from the virus this week. The woman's diagnosis
makes her the second confirmed case of the H1N1 flu in Cameron
County and the 61st in the state.

MERIDA: Hotel occupancy continues its downward trajectory.
According to the Hotel Association, occupancy in Cancun is now at
23.9 percent. The Governor of Quintana Roo announced today that
state wide hotel occupancy (including Cancun and the Rivera Maya) is
at 15%. The Cancun Airport is expecting 181 flights (86 domestic
and 95 international) for today and has already received 34
cancellations. Occupancy on arriving flights remains very low.
Cruise lines have announced that they are suspending traffic to the
ports of Progresso, Yucatan and Cozumel and Majahual in Quintana Roo
through June 15. In Yucatan, cinemas, shopping malls and museums
will re-open today. Restaurants, cinemas, etc. are all limiting
capacity and enforcing density restrictions. The State predicts
that its "sanitary fence" of health checkpoints will continue
through the month. The public remains calm but concerned about
long term economic impact.
Quintana Roo now confirms 11 cases of H1N1. One of these involves a
USC who was previously reported as negative for H1N1. A subsequent
sample has now come back positive (reported in more detail to
CA/OCS). Consulate and Consular Agency staff and EFMs remain
calm. We will contact a regularly scheduled radio check tonight.
The Consulate and Consular Agencies reopened today with limited
public services. There is a very low level of phone calls. We plan
to open limited visa services, starting tomorrow.

MONTERREY: The consular district is getting back to work as
government offices and businesses open, and the government cleans
the schools in preparation for the students returning to classes.
Nuevo Leon and San Luis Potosi are moving ahead with plans for local
universities to receive training so that they can test for H1N1 flu
to overcome delays and backlogs in testing flu samples. Nuevo Leon
disclosed that there are four confirmed cases of H1N1 flu in the
state based on samples taken April 26. All four patients are
recovering well, but due to the delay in test results, none of them
received H1N1 medications. Zacatecas has also disclosed 33
confirmed H1N1 cases (they had been silent for several days). Fifty
percent of the Zacatecas H1N1 patients are between 16 and 30 years
old. San Luis Potosi (SLP) has 58 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu, and
one confirmed death.

Consulate Monterrey opened for business, although non-emergency visa
processing will not resume until Monday, May 11. Monterrey's NIV
Section will reopen for interviews May 7-8 for applicants who have
already been enrolled at the offsite Applicant Services Center. NIV
staff are working with the CSC scheduling team to give priority May
12-14 to H2 temporary worker applicants, with up to 1,200 H2
interview slots opened those days. ACS has resumed regular
appointment schedule for passport and citizenship cases. The
Consulate discussed the need for timelier processing of suspected
H1N1 samples for patients and will explore linking local authorities
to U.S. medical experts. The Consulate publicized the Embassy's

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4:00 virtual town hall meeting. There are no suspected cases of
H1N1 flu among FSO or LES staff or their dependents.

Nuevo Leon business leaders were critical of the government's plan
to reduce taxes to support businesses hurt by H1N1 flu closing. The
Nuevo Leon maquila association noted that 76% of maquilas closed
during the May 1-5 period, higher than in other areas and protested
the fines given four maquilas which failed to close. Some business
will remain closed for some time, such as movies and nightclubs in
Coahuila. A Durango business leader said that while he could not
calculate the economic losses, he expected the economy to recover
quickly.


NOGALES: CBP NOGALES: CBP reports normal northbound traffic at
both Nogales ports of entry. There are no H1N1 cases in Northern
Sonora. However, there a number of cases in Arizona border counties
including: ten confirmed cases in Pima County including four on
Tohono O'odham Reservation; 11 confirmed cases in Yuma County; two
confirmed cases in Santa Cruz County. Post will resume operations
gradually with full services in effect by Monday, May 11. Post
will contact outstanding H2s directly this week, rather than through
CSC. They will aim for 50% of their normal capacity. The Nogales
Arizona school district is the only district in the State of Arizona
to remain closed - despite latest CDC guidelines.


Visa service NUEVO LAREDO: The public is calm and many people
continue to wear face masks. Restaurants and grocery stores remain
open to the public. Bridge traffic to Laredo, TX seems to have
resumed to normal levels. There are still no confirmed cases of
H1N1 in Neuvo Laredo but there is one confirmed case in Ciudad
Victoria, Tamaulipas. According to the press conference given by
Coahuila's Secretary of Health today at 1:00 p.m. there are 14
suspected swine flu cases in Piedras Negras. Of those 14 cases one
is hospitalized.


TIJUANA: Baja California now has 18 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu,
with the majority of cases in Mexicali. All of the newly identified
cases have received treatment and have recovered. San Diego cases
have risen to 27. There is a possible cluster outbreak of more than
50 cases on one of the navy vessels (the Dubuque) The three high
schools which had closed have now re-opened, a week before it was
planned. Border crossings appear to be back at normal operation and
wait times. American Citizen Services is operating normally except
for routine prison visits which have been postponed until next week.
NIV is processing reduced numbers of reduced visa applications,
including referrals, emergencies, and group renewals whose
appointments for Thursday and Friday had not been cancelled.

MEXICO CITY CONSULAR DISTRICT: Consular agents in the Mexico City
Consular district report that daily life is returning to normal.
Consular agents received less call volume over the weekend, life in
the streets appear to be calmer and traffic is slowly increasing.
Additionally, less people are wearing masks during their daily
activities.


9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS
-------------- --------------
Coverage on May 6 of the H1N1 flu outbreak in the Mexican media
focused on the stimulus packages to help the economy recover. Some
complained that the package is insufficient and that it is only a
short-term solution, while others said it was a step in the right
direction. The Secretary of Economy filed a suit before the World
Trade Organization against trade restriction on Mexican products
related to the influenza outbreak.

Most media outlets also featured the story of the Mexican airplane
sent to "rescue" more than a hundred Mexicans who had been
quarantined in China. The Chinese embassy spoke in the media
offering its side of the story. According to Chinese officials, the
quarantine was not an act of discrimination but a means to stop the
spreading of the virus given the dense population of China. The
media celebrated that California health authorities recognized that
the H1N1 virus probably did not originate in Mexico. They point out
that the first reported case occurred in San Diego on March 30. The

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press also mentioned the second death of H1N1 influenza in the U.S.
and the increase to 403 reported cases in the U.S.



10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------
Mission Mexico convened a conference call with the American Chamber
and heads of various US businesses operating in Mexico, including
from the energy, financial, transportation, and insurance sectors.
The businesses expressed their relief that the worst appears to be
over and commercial activity seems to be returning to normal. One
leader called the business closures and other preventive measures a
"good fire drill," and all thought the government's response to the
outbreak was effective and appropriate. Some businesses are still
restricting employees' travel to and from Mexico to avoid
encountering problems. AmCham's expert economist commented that
while it is too early to know the extent of the impact that the
outbreak will have on Mexico's economy, the overall economic
situation immediately prior to the outbreak was much worse than
expected. Consequently, H1N1 has exacerbated an already serious
situation, and while it is not quite the same as 1995, it is close.



11. (U) TRANSPORTATION
--------------
Alaska Airlines, which plans a 37% cut in Mexico service through
autumn 2009, began shifting planes from Mexico routes to U.S.
domestic routes where demand is greater.



12. (U) POLITICAL IMPACT
--------------
The official start of the campaigning season for congressional
elections was Sunday May 3. Reports indicate that all political
parties are showing solidarity with the measures implemented by the
government to combat the influenza outbreak. The government has
strongly discouraged large rallies and political parties have
adjusted their campaigning schedule to abide by this directive. As
a result, candidates have turned to innovative ways to reach the
public. Several candidates launched webcasts or facebook, YouTube,
and twitter sites on the first official day of campaigning.
Additionally, political parties in some areas handed out protective
masks imprinted with candidates' slogans and party logos. A looming
concern is that voter turnout could be H1N1 influenza's next victim
because most candidates feel that the web is no substitute for
old-fashioned rallies and canvassing in a country full of remote
villages and unconnected working class communities.



13. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE
--------------

The GOM has invited the Charge, and senior CDC and OFDA
representatives to a Ceremony of Appreciation at the Secretariat of
Health on May 7.

BASSETT