SITREP 12 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MEXICO 001237

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA,
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES)
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER)
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 12 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

REF: MEXICO 1236


1. (U) SUMMARY
--------------

Mexico aimed for a return to normalcy on 5 May, with many
re-openings scheduled for 6 May. The Secretary of Health put total
confirmed H1N1 cases at 866 and confirmed deaths at 26. A chorus of
indignation at discrimination against Mexicans abroad continued.
The Secretary of Finance announced economic stimulus and offered a
preliminary measure of the influenza's cost to GDP growth.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: Finance Minister Carstens announced 17 billion
pesos in economic relief measures the morning of 5 May (see economic
impact, section 10). The Secretariat of Communications and
Transportation looked to demonstrate that passengers were still
flying and that the country's civil aviation system was functioning
normally. Mexican lawmakers announced they would convoke the Latin
American Parliament, an international organization composed of
regional parliamentarians, to denounce "discriminatory practices" by
several Latin American governments.

MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT: Mayor Ebrard defended his cross-party-line
cooperation with the federal government the day after a 4 May
meeting with President Calderon. The city's Secretary of
Government, Jose Angel Avila, provided new details on the planned 6
May re-opening of restaurants. Hours are to be limited from 0700 to
2200 and restaurants must reduce seating capacity by 50%.


3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS
-------------- --------------

The Archdiocese of Mexico issued a communique of reproach targeting
those who, internationally and domestically, had seized on the
influenza to discriminate against Mexicans. Singled out for
special mention were China and the Latin American countries that had
closed their borders to Mexico.


4. (SBU) STATISTICS
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: In a 5 May morning press conference, Secretary
of Health Cordova announced the number of confirmed cases had
reached 866, while the number of fatalities was steady at 26.
According to the Secretary, the cases of 140 deceased individuals
remain to be analyzed. The female-to-male ratio neared even keel in
the overall case count, with women comprising 50.9% of confirmed
cases.

STATE BY STATE: 27 states have confirmed cases. Below is the
state-by-state breakdown compiled by the Secretariat of Health, as
of 1700 hrs on May 4. State-by-state statistics do not align
exactly with the overall federal count presented by the Secretariat
of Health. A state by state breakdown of the May 5 statistics
mentioned above is not yet available.

State-by-state Statistics (cases, deaths)
Auguascalientes 5, 0
Baja California 18, 0
Baja California Sur 0, 0
Campeche 1, 0
Chiapas 10, 0
Chihuahua 4, 0
Coahuila 0, 0
Colima 10, 0
Distrito Federal 476, 24
Durango 2, 0
Guanajuato 1, 0
Guerrero 3, 0
Hidalgo 53, 1
Jalisco 0, 0
State of Mexico 87, 1
Michoacan 1, 0
Morelos 0, 0

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Nuevo Leon 4, 0
Nayarit 0, 0
Oaxaca 1, 1
Puebla 4, 0
Queretaro 2, 0
Quintana Roo 3, 0
San Luis Potosi 59, 0
Sinaloa 0, 0
Sonora 2, 0
Tabasco 6, 0
Tamaulipas 1, 0
Tlaxcala 21, 2
Veracruz 2, 0
Yucatan 1, 0
Zacatecas 34, 0
Not specified 3, 0
Total 822, 29


5. (SBU) MANAGEMENT ISSUES
--------------

The Embassy Medical Unit reports no new cases in the Embassy
community and awaits test results for one "probable" case and eight
additional outstanding cases.


6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES
--------------

The Embassy will convene its Emergency Action Committee at 0900 on 6
May to discuss the evolving situation.


7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES
--------------

The Embassy switchboard received 170 calls during the 24 hour period
from 0700 4 May to 0700 5 May, an increase from low weekend call
levels. 19 related to H1N1 directly, while more than 150 addressed
passport and visa issues. Between 0700 and 1600 on 5 May, the
switchboard fielded 43 calls. In the main, callers looked to
schedule or reschedule appointments for consular services. Regular
consular services will resume 11 May.


8. (U) CONSULATE ISSUES
--------------

GUADALAJARA: Although there have been no official reported cases of
H1N1 yet in the state of Jalisco, local media report that in fact at
the Hospital Civil, there might be eight cases. The State Health
Secretary denies this, but anonymous inside reports from doctors
there indicate these cases exist. One additional case was reported
in Colima. Primary and secondary schools will prepare to open next
week, and the major universities here have mostly indicated that
they will open as normal starting tomorrow. Businesses are also
returning to normal. The duty officer received no calls for ACS
support over the last 24 hours.

HERMOSILLO: A second case of H1N1 has been confirmed in the
Hermosillo consular district. The subject is an 8-year old male
from Sonora and is currently receiving treatment. It is believed he
contracted virus in the U.S. Sinaloa still has no confirmed cases.
The Sonora Secretariat of Health announced it will not conduct
passive inspections of southbound travelers coming into the state.
The focus instead will go to a public awareness campaign regarding
identification of symptoms, what to do if sick, where to go for
help, etc. Sinaloa announced similar public outreach efforts, with
renewed focus on rural communities. Both Sonora and Sinaloa will
follow federal guidelines regarding the opening of schools.
Universities will open this week and primary/secondary schools on 11
May. Over the last 24 hours the Duty Phone has experienced no calls
from AmCits regarding H1N1.

MATAMOROS: The situation remains the same as the last few days. No
cases reported, still light traffic going both ways on the bridge.
High School classes resume 7 May and Elementary School classes
resume Monday, 11 May. All classes in Brownsville resume 7 May.
There are more people circulating on the streets and in restaurants
and businesses. Things appear to be returning to normal.

MEXICO 00001237 003 OF 005



MERIDA: The situation remains much the same. Kinder and primary
schools will remain closed through the end of the week. High
schools and universities plan to re-open 7 May. Transportation
checks and health screenings continue around the peninsula. Tourism
contacts in Quintana Roo state that international travel agencies
are pessimistic about summer travel and will focus instead on winter
travel to major Mexican resorts, including Cancun and the Riviera
Maya. Cancun international airport reports 32 flight cancellations
on 5 May and 191 flights (104 international) still operating. The
Consulate plans to reopen tomorrow and anticipates processing a
number of lost and stolen passport applications built up over the
recent closure. The Duty officer is receiving very few calls. The
public remains calm but concerned about long term economic impact.

MONTERREY: State governors all attended the 4 May meeting with
President Calderon, and announced the return of students to classes.
State governments will clean schools and reemphasize student
hygiene. State governments announced no other new measures against
H1N1 flu.

Media reports discussed school re-openings, measures to clean
schools, how Mexicans have been treated by other countries such as
China (but not the U.S.),and the economic impact of the flu scare.
Several newspapers quoted business leaders lamenting the large
economic impact of the measures to prevent the spread of H1N1 flu.
In Nuevo Leon, a representative of business association Coparmex
estimated that 2 billion pesos were lost each day in productive
activity. San Luis Potosi saw an 85% decline in commercial sales,
80% of businesses closed, and hotels at 10% occupancy. In Nuevo
Leon and Coahuila, restaurant owners complained proposed sanitary
measures of distances between patrons' tables were unrealistic.
Nuevo Leon's business association Caintra protested the proposed
fines on four manufacturers for not closing between May 1 and 5.

NOGALES: CBP reports normal to heavy northbound traffic at both
Nogales ports of entry, consistent with local holiday travel.
Northern Sonora still reports zero cases. The case count on the
U.S. side of the border is also unchanged. Pima County has 6
confirmed cases (4 on Tohono O'odham Reservation, 2 in metropolitan
Tucson),Yuma County has 1 confirmed case (Yuma),Santa Cruz County
has 1 confirmed case (Nogales),and Cochise County has no confirmed
cases.

Visa services are suspended through 8 May. If services re-open
sooner, H2 applicants will be contacted as soon as possible. ACS
services continue with limited service for emergencies and the unit
will accept passport/CRBA applications. The lack of uniform school
closing policies in Arizona is causing some confusion. Schools in
Metro Phoenix (with the vast majority of reported Arizona cases)
will remain open, while the entire Nogales school system has closed
(with only one confirmed case).
Visa service
TIJUANA: No new cases have been identified in Baja, although
officials are still awaiting results on the last samples sent; there
are at least 13 "suspect" cases pending results. San Diego now has
24 confirmed cases and 24 "probable" cases. Border crossing wait
times appear to be back to normal. The Duty Officer reports no
flu-related calls over the past 24 hours. The restaurant industry
reported a 40% decrease in business during the past week/weekend,
according to restaurant association CANIRAC. CANIRAC is placing
part of the blame on the U.S. media portrayal of the H1N1 flu as
affecting all of Mexico, while Baja -- in CANIRAC's description --
remains calm and relatively unaffected. James Gerber, director of
the Center for Latin American Studies at San Diego State University
and an economist, stated the obvious -- the flu is "...likely to be
very, very expensive" for Mexico. It is generally agreed that,
though, that businesses in Baja have not been as hard hit as those
in Mexico City.


9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS
-------------- --------------
Media coverage on May 5 in the Mexican media focused on the
announcement of President Calderon of the return to "normality." An
enthusiastic Milenio headlined its feature story "Good News."
"Thanks to the actions taken by the government and the people, we
are ready to begin resuming our everyday lives," stated President

MEXICO 00001237 004 OF 005


Calderon. According to authorities, most economic activities will
resume Wednesday, 6 May, universities and high schools will restart
classes Thursday, 7 May, and primary and secondary level schools
will do so on Monday, 11 May. Other businesses like movie theaters
and bars will remain closed until further notice. Secretary of
Health Cordova announced reports of new hospitalizations had dropped
80% and the number of confirmed cases increased to 866, with
fatalities steady at 26. Other media outlets were less enthusiastic
in their headlines but reiterated the message: "Businesses open
tomorrow, classes start on Thursday" (La Cronica); "Progressive
return to schools" (El Universal); "A conditioned return to
normality is decreed" (La Jornada); "High schools, universities
resume classes on Thursday" (El Sol de Mexico); "Economic activities
to be resumed" (Uno mas uno). Newspaper La Cronica's editorial
warns, "We must be fearful of the epidemic and act intelligently and
prudently. If we act otherwise, then consequences could be fatal. We
must not make the mistake to believe that we have defeated the
virus. This ain't over till it's over."

Also very prominent in the media was President Calderon's public
reproach of countries that have taken actions against Mexico. "In
the name of all Mexicans, I ask every nation that has taken actions
that negatively affect Mexico and don't really help to stop the
outbreak to cease them...I express a strong rejection of these
discriminatory measures." There was a lot of reaction in the media
and in the international community. The French ambassador to Mexico
went on the radio to announce the arrival of antiviral medicine
donated by his country. The ambassador of Argentina offered a
public apology for the measures taken by President Kirshner to
cancel flights to and from Mexico and for having referred to Mexico
as a "sick country." Spain's ambassador agreed with President
Calderon and condemned discriminatory measures against Mexicans,
while reiterating his country's solidarity. The Secretariat of
Foreign Affairs (SRE) started a campaign to defend the image of
Mexico. SRE's Subsecretary for multi-lateral affairs asked the U.N.
to publicly condemn discriminatory measures. The U.N. Secretary
General stated his condemnation of "exaggerated measures...that
affect economies, societies and peoples." Press reports also
mentioned the WHO director's call not to stop flows of people,
products and services. Most opinion makers supported the
President's call. "I don't like the way some countries have
reacted...I expected something very different from Latin American
countries. Let us hope for the sake of good diplomatic relations
that this can be corrected," stated Radio 13 commentator Javier
Solorzano. Excelsior analyst Jorge Fernandez Menendez added, "Fear
has torn us apart. The measures taken by some countries do not
follow WHO protocols and target Mexicans specifically." The good
relationship between the U.S. and Mexico was highlighted once again
with reports of the meeting of President Obama with Ambassador
Sarukhan in Washington for Cinco de Mayo celebrations.

Finally, another crucial news item was President Calderon's
announcement that his economic cabinet will meet to come up with a
stimulus package to face the added economic challenges brought on by
the influenza outbreak. The tourism sector is expected to reap the
most benefits from this package, which includes tax cuts and ad
campaigns.


10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

At a press conference the morning of 5 May, Finance Minister
Carstens acknowledged that H1N1 will have a "significant" impact on
Mexico's economy. Based on his ministry's study of similar
incidents in other countries, the impact could be between .3 and .5%
of Mexico's GDP. Some sectors -- tourism, dining, and lodging --
have suffered more than others. However, Carstens stressed that
Mexico will recover quickly, and President Calderon has instructed
his administration to make it so.

Carstens outlined various economic supports to help Mexico recover
quickly. If the impact reaches .5% of Mexico's GDP, tax collection
will fall by 10 billion pesos. However, the Mexican government will
not implement new taxes to recoup these estimated losses. To
protect employment, the government will discount 20% of employee's
social security and other fees, not to exceed 35,000 pesos per
employee. Employees will also see a reduction of their flat-rate

MEXICO 00001237 005 OF 005


business income tax, which will reduce Mexican businesses' overall
tax bill by about 2 billion pesos. Businesses in Mexico's tourist
industry will benefit from other reductions in payroll taxes and the
hotel tax. The federal government will also compensate the affected
Mexican states for the loss of tourism with 500 million pesos. Air
traffic control fees and cruise line docking fees will be halved,
and financing will be made available to provide liquidity for
affected businesses. Proposed measures total approximately 17.4
billion pesos.

Around Mexico City, businesses are re-opening, including department
stores, auto mechanics, hair salons, and pet stores. Commercial
activity has picked up, grocery stores are packed, fewer face masks
are evident, and the traffic has returned. People appear eager to
return to normalcy.


11. (U) TRANSPORTATION
--------------

The GOM's announcement of aid to the aviation sector buoyed spirits
today as airlines put flesh to their plans to reduce the new
overcapacity on Mexico routes. Flight cancellations continued
across the country but few travelers experienced difficulty reaching
their destinations. American announced an expected reduction in
flights, cutting daily round trips from 42 to 31 but maintaining
service to all 14 stations.


12. (U) U.S. ASSISTANCE
--------------

President Calderon received the CDC's Mexico team leader, Dr. Steve
Waterman, at Los Pinos on 5 May. The President expressed thanks for
close U.S.-Mexico cooperation in responding to the H1N1 outbreak.

BASSETT