SITREP 7 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 MEXICO 001227

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA, STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS;
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES); STATE FOR
MED/DIR (PENNER); STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA; CDC FOR
CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD AND COGH/DPPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 7 - H1N1 FLU OUTBREAK IN MEXICO CITY


1. (U) SUMMARY:
--------------

April 30 GOM estimates of confirmed H1N1 cases and deaths
rose to 260 cases, including 12 deaths. On April 30, the
Embassy issued an updated warden statement and announced that
Mission operations will be closed on May 4, 2009. This
closure complies with the GOM's decision to close its
non-emergency operations in government offices.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS:
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:

-- At a press conference on Aril 30, Secretary of Health
Cordova announced that the GOM will now have six labs running
tests in Mexico City, Veracruz, and Acapulco.

-- There are currently no plans to postpone elections,
however, the GOM postponed electoral training activities and
recommended political parties to prevent large crowds during
political campaigns.

-- In response to the GOM's April 29 request for assistance,
the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced
the donation of 4M doses (400K courses) of Tamiflu to arrive
in Mexico Mary 1, 2009. Moreover, on April 29 the US Embassy
announced assistance of USD 5 million to the World Health
Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization
(PAHO) to support Mexico's efforts to contain the spread of
the H1N1 Influenza in Mexico. The funds will provide
equipment and supplies that will facilitate the diagnosis and
treatment of people suffering from the disease. In addition,
USAID/OFDA is currently preparing 100,000 personal protective
equipment kits (PPE kits) to deliver to healthcare workers in
Mexico.


MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT:

On April 30, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said that there
had been a reduction of the number of influenza cases
reported, but encouraged everyone to continue following
precautionary measures. He also said that his administration
and that of other state governments need to channel resources
towards equipment and improvements in health and medical
facilities.



3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS:
-------------- --------------

Nothing new to report.



4. (SBU) STATISTICS:
--------------

-- At a press conference on April 30, the Secretary of Health
Cordova said the number of new H1N1 flu cases was
stabilizing. Cordova says he hopes that trend will continue
and that a vaccine will be available in six months.

-- Cordova confirmed a total of 260 H1N1 flu cases, including
12 deaths. He said he will no longer give figures on
possible/suspect cases to avoid confusion. He explained that
the increase in the number of deaths did not mean more people
died in the past 24 hours, but that authorities have been
able to confirm more cases through the lab tests. Note: We
continue to have problems obtaining consistent government
statistical data. End Note.

--Hospital capacity/occupancy remains at an estimated 70%.

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5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES:
--------------

-- Operation of the Embassy's call center (with 3 phones and
3 computers) began on April 30. Callers can either dial
direct or access the center through the main embassy greeting
(press 1 for influenza info, then press 0 to speak to a call
center staffer).

-- Mission operations will be closed on May 4, 2009. This
closure complies with the GOM's decision to close its
non-emergency operations in government offices. Tuesday,
May 5, 2009 is also a national holiday. Mission Mexico
operations will resume on Wednesday, May 6, 2009.

-- Post continues to encourage the use of liberal leave for
any personal concerns related to the flu.

-- Embassy is denying all TDY travel except those responding
to the H1N1 flu outbreak and TDYs that are deemed absolutely
mission essential. This includes the retraction of country
clearances already granted.



6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES:
--------------

-- A warden check was conducted on April 29 with an 80
percent response rate (within 2 hours of initial contact). A
radio check is planned for the weekend.

-- Embassy convened an EAC and virtual town hall with 300
participants on April 30. The next EAC meeting is scheduled
for Wednesday, May 6, 0900 local time.



7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES:
--------------

-- U.S. EMBASSY: The Embassy issued an updated warden
message April 30, the sixth in seven days. The message
refers to the latest information regarding H1N1 Influenza A
and alerts Amcits to the enhanced health screening for all
international passengers departing Mexico from Mexico City
(Benito Juarez),Guadalajara, Monterrey, Cancun, Cabo San
Lucas, and Puerto Vallarta airports. Passengers with high
temperatures or testing positive for the H1N1 virus will be
denied boarding.

-- NIV appointments have been suspended through the end of
next week (May 8).

-- The Embassy call center received over 400 H1N1-flu related
calls on April 30, less than the previous day.

-- PEACE CORPS: Peace Corps (PC) Mexico currently has 57
volunteers in Mexico, all of which were put on a
Q&standfastQ8 status April 29. (Note: Standfast in the PC
Emergency Action Plan means that volunteers must stay near
their sites, with no incidental travel away from their home
of work sites.) PC volunteers have been kept fully informed
of all Embassy, WHO, and GOM communiquQs. All volunteers
have been contacted by both cell phones and email and are
required to check in daily with PC headquarters in Queretaro
for any further instructions. Volunteers are advised not to
take public transportation or stay in crowded venues.

-- CONSULATE, CIUDAD JUAREZ: Consular employees contacted
applicants impacted by the suspension in services to notify
them that immigrant visa (IV) interviews are suspended until
May 8. All other consular operations at the U.S. Consulate

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General in Ciudad Juarez report no other significant change
in operations since the April 29 SitRep. IV operations will
now be suspended through May 15. The National Visa Center is
notifying applicants scheduled the May 11 through May 15.
-- CONSULATE, GUADALAJARA: ACS handled approximately 25 cases
today. The Visa Section handled three emergency cases.



-- CONSULATE, NOGALES: The consulate has not received any
calls regarding the flu outbreak in the past three days.
Visa services are suspended until May 8th. ACS services
continue with limited service for emergencies and will accept
passport/CRBA applications. Employee absenteeism continues
within normal limits. A meeting of the local Integrated
Emergency Management Group has been scheduled for Thursday
May 7.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, MERIDA: There has not been a noticeable
increase in the demand for American Citizen Services. None
of the Consulate staff to date has exercised the liberal sick
leave policy. Staff and EFMs remain calm. The Consulate
held another town hall meeting today to pass information on
the H1N1 virus and provide guidance should a staff member
fall ill over the weekend. The Consulate will also perform a
test on the mission phone tree tonight to prepare for any
contingencies over the long weekend.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, MONTERREY: Post held a town hall meeting
on April 29 to emphasize that H1N1 flu responds to treatment
if prompt medical attention is sought. American Citizen
Services (ACS) has issued warden messages forwarded by
Embassy, so now five warden messages have been sent to the
local American community. NIV received only a handful of
phone calls and four e-mail inquiries about visas. One
emergency O1 visa renewal for a physician working in Texas
was issued. The Monterrey Applicant Services Center (ASC) is
closed to the public but minimal staff are working.

-- U.S. CONSULATE TIJUANA: The suspension of non-essential
consular services has been very smooth. The call center was
successful in re-programming all non-emergency NIV
appointments without problems Q* no applicants came to the
Consulate after Tuesday, and there were only 4 that day. NIV
has received only a few requests for emergency appointments
and has processed only 5 visas. Some passport and CRBA
applicants have rescheduled, but most kept their
appointments. The number of public inquiries to the
Consulate concerning suspension of services or general
concern over the H1N1 flu situation have been surprisingly
low, including very few from the families of our prisoners.



8. (U) BORDER AND CONSULATE ISSUES:
--------------

-- CIUDAD JUAREZ: Following the GOM's lead, Chihuahua State
and Juarez Municipal governments will suspend all
non-essential activities from May 1 to May 6. In Ciudad
Juarez, the Mayor's office told Post that the Municipal
Police, Health Department, and the Department of Civil
Protection will remain open. These closures add to earlier
announcements by State authorities that all public events,
bars, nights, movies, gyms, and other large gatherings will
be suspended until May 6.

Poloff observed normal activity during visits on April 29 to
hospitals and bus stations in Ciudad Juarez. The medical
personnel at the largest bus station in the city reported no
cases of sick passengers. Despite the municipal government's
claim on April 29 that 200,000 brochures were printed and
being distributed, personnel at the hospitals and bus
stations that poloff visited did not have brochures.


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CBP reports that passenger and vehicle traffic has not
changed significantly since the H1N1 outbreak began.
(Passenger and vehicle traffic at international bridges in El
Paso/Ciudad Juarez increased by less than 1 percent from
April 19-21 to April 26-28.) The Juarez delegate to the
National Chamber of Commerce (CANACO) estimates that the
city's economy will lose approximately USD $ 115 million as a
result of the business and event closures related to the H1N1
flu. According to the Maquiladora Association of Juarez
(AMAC),manufacturing plants will offer temporary leave to
employees with school-aged children due to the federal
government's decision to close schools. AMAC reports that
the many of the city's manufacturing plants were already
operating only three days a week due to the economic slowdown.

-- GUADALAJARA: Following suit from the national closures
from May 1-6, state and local officials have declared their
closures until May 6. RSO reports no significant incidents
in the area and no Q&panic buyingQ8 as of yet. Public transit
and airline flights continue to operate normally. As a result
of the epidemic, the Jalisco Chamber of Bars and Restaurants
estimates that their members have lost some $450 million
pesos, and hotels are seeing their numbers drop by about 25%.

-- NOGALES: Public reaction remains the same throughout
Nogales, that is to say, people appear calm and public use of
masks is light. CBP reports heavier than normal northbound
traffic at both Nogales ports of entry. CBP added that
northbound traffic has been inconsistent in the last few
weeks and they are not able to make the assertion that the
heavier than normal traffic today is due to the current
health situation.

--MERIDA: Cancun airport is installing 50 thermo-detectors
to screen for fever in arriving and departing passengers.
Merida airport stated it has personnel with wireless
thermometers to measure the temperatures of departing
passengers. The airport is still requiring all passengers to
fill out a health questionnaire. In the Yucatan, local press
is reporting a 70% drop in use of local transportation and
31% of hotel reservations in the state have been canceled.
Local archeological sites and cinemas remain closed. The
Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad is preparing one floor
of the hospital in order to isolate any potential cases

-- MONTERREY: Campaign rallies for the candidates for Nuevo
Leon Governor have been postponed, and it is possible that
the campaigns for federal Congressional seats will be
postponed as well. The government in San Luis Potosi has
closed nightclubs, restaurants, bars and health clubs, and
they are disinfecting public buses. In addition, the San
Luis Potosi public and private hospitals have supplies of
anti-flu medication. In Coahuila, the government is
distributing 500,000 face masks, and Tamiflu is also
available.

The PAN Mayor of the Monterrey suburb of Santa Catarina told
the CG that the PAN Mayors throughout Mexico would meet on
May 5, probably in Queretaro (but possibly in Zacatecas) to
discuss their public message on the H1N1 crisis. Zacatecas
city mayor Cuahtemoc Calderon, the head of the PAN Mayors
group (ANAC),would chair the meeting.

Traffic remains very light in Nuevo Leon, and many post
contacts are traveling to Texas for the long holiday weekend.
A number of public and private venues have closed
voluntarily. In San Luis Potosi (SLP),the situation appears
to be under control, and despite the closing of public venues
such as restaurants and bars, people seem calmer than before.
Church services have also been suspended. Most people are
staying home and many are wearing face masks. Some people
plan to leave for the United States for the long holiday
weekend. The SLP consular agency is informing the public
that the border remains open but to expect possible delays.

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The Monterrey Consulate and the SLP consular agency are both
providing information about the CBP website on border wait
times. Meanwhile, in Durango, private businesses report that
restaurant business has declined 15-60%.


-- TIJUANA: Government offices will close throughout our
district in accordance with the ordered closures announced by
the GOM. Prisons and state penitentiaries have suspended all
visits with inmates until further notice. No other closures
have been ordered. Restaurants and shops remain open, but
very empty. Churches announced they will have services but
will take measures to limit person to person contact. Many
newspapers included special inserts in today's editions on
how to protect yourself from the flu.

Border wait times continue to be very low. CBP reports that
they are passively screening individuals for possible
illness. Unconfirmed media reports indicate that as many as
50 people were referred to secondary inspection yesterday due
to concerns over possible illnesses.

Shops and restaurants continue to see a slowdown in business
with the exception of the sale facemasks, which are now
becoming very scarce. Several cruise ships originally
scheduled to make stops in Ensenada and Cabo San Lucas were
diverted away from our district and will now remain in the
US. Air travel in and out of the Tijuana airport continues
as normal with virtually no cancellations. In-coming and
out-going air travelers are being screened on a selective
basis.


--MATAMOROS: All businesses appear to be closing on Monday.


--NUEVO LAREDO: There continues to be less-than-normal
traffic going to the U.S. April 30 from Nuevo Laredo.
Restaurants continue to be open. There are only a few people
on the streets in face masks and the public is calm. Post has
had only one call about the flu since the H1N1 flu began.


9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS:
-------------- --------------

The Mexican media's coverage of the swine flu outbreak on
April 30 focused on the GOM's announcement to suspend all
non-essential federal services from May 1 to 5. Reports
highlighted that Q&production and availability of food,
medicine and basic services is guaranteed.Q8 Headlines
included, Q&Government, factories suspend labor for five
daysQ8 (El Universal); Q&Holiday decreedQ8 (Reforma);
Q&Calderon says stay homeQ8 (Milenio); Q&Government suspends
public servicesQ8 (Excelsior). Media coverage also reported
the raising of the WHO alert level to 5. Commentators pointed
out that this Q&does not change the measures that Mexico is
already taking and does not mean the virus is more dangerous,
only that there are more cases around the world.Q8

Newspaper Reforma featured a poll that shows divided opinion
among Mexicans. According to the poll, 49% of Mexicans said
they fear contagion, while the other 50% said they were not
concerned. Most media also featured reports that US
legislators have asked the US Secretary of Homeland Security
to consider closing the border with Mexico, and the negative
response of President Obama to this petition. The media also
reported on the installation of thermo scanners in the Mexico
City airport and the suspension of visa appointments in the
U.S. Consulates in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez.

Also noteworthy was President CalderonQ,s meeting with former
Health secretaries to hear their views on how to go about the
outbreak, and the statement by the Secretary of Finance who
estimated Mexico's GDP will drop a further 0.5% due to the

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outbreak but assured that the GOM has enough resources under
the Catastrophe Expenses Fund and the swap lines with the
World Bank and the Inter American Development Bank.



10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

FOOD SUPPLY: Wal-Mart supermarkets, Mexico's largest
supermarket chain, see no supply problems for the foreseeable
future. Apart from low stocks of cleaning alcohol, face
masks and vitamin C, Wal-Mart does not foresee running out of
any basic items. If some brands do sell out (i.e. tuna),
they have other brands available. Masks have been a problem,
and their US parent store has ordered several million.
Wal-Mart Mexico's stores (Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, Bodega
Aurrera, Superama, Suburbia) are showing a slight surge in
sales, consistent with last week's pattern, particularly in
higher income neighborhoods.

Modest (i.e. not panicked) stockpiling by consumers is
generalized, but more pronounced in higher income areas.
There is also a general concern that many people are using
credit cards to charge their groceries, bucking a previous
trend towards cash. Wal-Mart is also the owner of the
largest restaurant chain in Mexico, VIPS. Their restaurants
in the DF are open for take-out only, and revenues are at 17%
of their usual levels. Restaurants in the rest of the
country are running at 50%, with different states requiring
different maximum occupancy rates. Wal-Mart is fine with
this for the moment and comfortable with the level of
operations.

The Central de Abasto, Mexico City's city-run central food
distribution market has put out a press release announcing
that it will Q&guaranteeQ8 the supply of food to the city.
The city says there has been no interruption of any food
supply.



11. TRANSPORTATION
--------------

In a 30 April press conference, Secretary of Communications
and Transportation Molinar Horcasitas emphasized the GOM's
commitment to guarantee transportation service. He noted
that trucking companies are operating normally, but that
passenger loads on public transportation, from minibuses to
airplanes, have declined. He stressed that the supply of
food is not at risk. The Secretary's comments track with our
grasp of the transport situation. The Secretary also noted
he had talked by phone on 29 April with his counterparts in
the U.S., UK, Spain, Italy, and France -- making special
mention of the EU's decision not to suspend air traffic to
Mexico.

Both terminals at Mexico City International Airport (AICM)
are screening outbound passengers as of 30 April, including
thermometer readings for all. The process is not at this
point delaying departures. AICM is beginning an information
campaign to reinforce the message that the facility is open
and functioning normally. Flight cancellations remain few in
number. Airports such as Cancun, dedicated more directly to
tourist travel, are seeing a more pronounced slowdown. The
new measures implemented by the Secretariat of Communications
and Transportation could spread to additional airports beyond
the initial 6 once the logistics are mastered at the first
sites, according to a contact at the Directorate General for
Civil Aviation (DGAC, Mexico's FAA).

Passenger volume on inbound flights from the U.S. is now very
low. Load factors of 15-20% are common. Outbound traffic
remains brisk. Reservation centers are not/not recording
large numbers of Mexican nationals leaving the country, apart

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from regular vacation travel booked well in advance.
Wide-body flights from Europe show very low, while outbound
flights are full of European tourists, many of whom have
advanced their departure dates.

Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /
BASSETT