SITREP 7 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 MEXICO 001226

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA,
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES)
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER)
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 7 - H1N1 Outbreak in Mexico


1. (U) SUMMARY:
--------------

April 30 GOM estimates of confirmed H1N1 cases and deaths rose to
260 cases, including 12 deaths. On April 30, the Embassy issued an
updated warden statement and announced that Mission operations will
be closed on May 4, 2009. This closure complies with the GOM's
decision to close its non-emergency operations in government
offices.


2. (U) FEDERAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIONS:
--------------

FEDERAL GOVERNEMENT:

-- At a press conference on Aril 30, Secretary of Health Cordova
announced that the GOM will now have six labs running tests in
Mexico City, Veracruz, and Acapulco.
-- There are currently no plans to postpone elections, however, the
GOM postponed electoral training activities and recommended
political parties to prevent large crowds during political
campaigns.


-- In response to the GOM's April 29 request for assistance, the
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced the donation
of 4M doses (400K courses) of Tamiflu to arrive in Mexico Mary 1,

2009. Moreover, on April 29 the US Embassy announced assistance of
USD 5 million to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan
American Health Organization (PAHO) to support Mexico's efforts to
contain the spread of the H1N1 Influenza in Mexico. The funds will
provide equipment and supplies that will facilitate the diagnosis
and treatment of people suffering from the disease. In addition,
USAID/OFDA is currently preparing 100,000 personal protective
equipment kits (PPE kits) to deliver to healthcare workers in
Mexico.


MEXICO CITY GOVERNMENT:

On April 30, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said that there had
been a reduction of the number of influenza cases reported, but
encouraged everyone to continue following precautionary measures.
He also said that his administration and that of other state
governments need to channel resources towards equipment and
improvements in health and medical facilities.



3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS:
-------------- --------------

Nothing new to report.



4. (SBU) STATISTICS:
--------------

-- At a press conference on April 30, the Secretary of Health
Cordova said the number of new H1N1 flu cases was stabilizing.
Cordova says he hopes that trend will continue and that a vaccine
will be available in six months.

-- Cordova confirmed a total of 260 H1N1 flu cases, including 12
deaths. He said he will no longer give figures on possible/suspect
cases to avoid confusion. He explained that the increase in the
number of deaths did not mean more people died in the past 24 hours,
but that authorities have been able to confirm more cases through
the lab tests. Note: We continue to have problems obtaining
consistent government statistical data. End Note.

--Hospital capacity/occupancy remains at an estimated 70%.




5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES:
--------------


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-- Operation of the Embassy's call center (with 3 phones and 3
computers) began on April 30. Callers can either dial direct or
access the center through the main embassy greeting (press 1 for
influenza info, then press 0 to speak to a call center staffer).

-- Mission operations will be closed on May 4, 2009. This closure
complies with the GOM's decision to close its non-emergency
operations in government offices. Tuesday, May 5, 2009 is also a
national holiday. Mission Mexico operations will resume on
Wednesday, May 6, 2009.

-- Post continues to encourage the use of liberal leave for any
personal concerns related to the flu.

-- Embassy is denying all TDY travel except those responding to the
H1N1 flu outbreak and TDYs that are deemed absolutely mission
essential. This includes the retraction of country clearances
already granted.



6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES:
--------------

-- A warden check was conducted on April 29 with an 80 percent
response rate (within 2 hours of initial contact). A radio check is
planned for the weekend.

-- Embassy convened an EAC and virtual town hall with 300
participants on April 30. The next EAC meeting is scheduled for
Wednesday, May 6, 0900 local time.



7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES:
--------------

-- U.S. EMBASSY: The Embassy issued an updated warden message April
30, the sixth in seven days. The message refers to the latest
information regarding H1N1 Influenza A and alerts Amcits to the
enhanced health screening for all international passengers departing
Mexico from Mexico City (Benito Juarez),Guadalajara, Monterrey,
Cancun, Cabo San Lucas, and Puerto Vallarta airports. Passengers
with high temperatures or testing positive for the H1N1 virus will
be denied boarding.

-- NIV appointments have been suspended through the end of next week
(May 8).

-- The Embassy call center received over 400 H1N1-flu related calls
on April 30, less than the previous day.

-- PEACE CORPS: Peace Corps (PC) Mexico currently has 57 volunteers
in Mexico, all of which were put on a "standfast" status April 29.
(Note: Standfast in the PC Emergency Action Plan means that
volunteers must stay near their sites, with no incidental travel
away from their home of work sites.) PC volunteers have been kept
fully informed of all Embassy, WHO, and GOM communiqus. All
volunteers have been contacted by both cell phones and email and are
required to check in daily with PC headquarters in Queretaro for any
further instructions. Volunteers are advised not to take public
transportation or stay in crowded venues.

-- CONSULATE, CIUDAD JUAREZ: Consular employees contacted applicants
impacted by the suspension in services to notify them that immigrant
visa (IV) interviews are suspended until May 8. All other consular
operations at the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez report no
other significant change in operations since the April 29 SitRep.
IV operations will now be suspended through May 15. The National
Visa Center is notifying applicants scheduled the May 11 through May

15.
-- CONSULATE, GUADALAJARA: ACS handled approximately 25 cases today.
The Visa Section handled three emergency cases.



-- CONSULATE, NOGALES: The consulate has not received any calls
regarding the flu outbreak in the past three days. Visa services
are suspended until May 8th. ACS services continue with limited

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service for emergencies and will accept passport/CRBA applications.
Employee absenteeism continues within normal limits. A meeting of
the local Integrated Emergency Management Group has been scheduled
for Thursday May 7.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, MERIDA: There has not been a noticeable increase
in the demand for American Citizen Services. None of the Consulate
staff to date has exercised the liberal sick leave policy. Staff
and EFMs remain calm. The Consulate held another town hall meeting
today to pass information on the H1N1 virus and provide guidance
should a staff member fall ill over the weekend. The Consulate will
also perform a test on the mission phone tree tonight to prepare for
any contingencies over the long weekend.

-- U.S. CONSULATE, MONTERREY: Post held a town hall meeting on
April 29 to emphasize that H1N1 flu responds to treatment if prompt
medical attention is sought. American Citizen Services (ACS) has
issued warden messages forwarded by Embassy, so now five warden
messages have been sent to the local American community. NIV
received only a handful of phone calls and four e-mail inquiries
about visas. One emergency O1 visa renewal for a physician working
in Texas was issued. The Monterrey Applicant Services Center (ASC)
is closed to the public but minimal staff are working.

-- U.S. CONSULATE TIJUANA: The suspension of non-essential consular
services has been very smooth. The call center was successful in
re-programming all non-emergency NIV appointments without problems -
no applicants came to the Consulate after Tuesday, and there were
only 4 that day. NIV has received only a few requests for emergency
appointments and has processed only 5 visas. Some passport and CRBA
applicants have rescheduled, but most kept their appointments. The
number of public inquiries to the Consulate concerning suspension of
services or general concern over the H1N1 flu situation have been
surprisingly low, including very few from the families of our
prisoners.



8. (U) BORDER AND CONSULATE ISSUES:
--------------

-- CIUDAD JUAREZ: Following the GOM's lead, Chihuahua State and
Juarez Municipal governments will suspend all non-essential
activities from May 1 to May 6. In Ciudad Juarez, the Mayor's
office told Post that the Municipal Police, Health Department, and
the Department of Civil Protection will remain open. These closures
add to earlier announcements by State authorities that all public
events, bars, nights, movies, gyms, and other large gatherings will
be suspended until May 6.

Poloff observed normal activity during visits on April 29 to
hospitals and bus stations in Ciudad Juarez. The medical personnel
at the largest bus station in the city reported no cases of sick
passengers. Despite the municipal government's claim on April 29
that 200,000 brochures were printed and being distributed, personnel
at the hospitals and bus stations that poloff visited did not have
brochures.

CBP reports that passenger and vehicle traffic has not changed
significantly since the H1N1 outbreak began. (Passenger and vehicle
traffic at international bridges in El Paso/Ciudad Juarez increased
by less than 1 percent from April 19-21 to April 26-28.) The Juarez
delegate to the National Chamber of Commerce (CANACO) estimates that
the city's economy will lose approximately USD $ 115 million as a
result of the business and event closures related to the H1N1 flu.
According to the Maquiladora Association of Juarez (AMAC),
manufacturing plants will offer temporary leave to employees with
school-aged children due to the federal government's decision to
close schools. AMAC reports that the many of the city's
manufacturing plants were already operating only three days a week
due to the economic slowdown.


-- GUADALAJARA: Following suit from the national closures from May
1-6, state and local officials have declared their closures until
May 6. RSO reports no significant incidents in the area and no
"panic buying" as of yet. Public transit and airline flights
continue to operate normally. As a result of the epidemic, the

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Jalisco Chamber of Bars and Restaurants estimates that their members
have lost some $450 million pesos, and hotels are seeing their
numbers drop by about 25%.

-- NOGALES: Public reaction remains the same throughout Nogales,
that is to say, people appear calm and public use of masks is light.
CBP reports heavier than normal northbound traffic at both Nogales
ports of entry. CBP added that northbound traffic has been
inconsistent in the last few weeks and they are not able to make the
assertion that the heavier than normal traffic today is due to the
current health situation.

--MERIDA: Cancun airport is installing 50 thermo-detectors to
screen for fever in arriving and departing passengers. Merida
airport stated it has personnel with wireless thermometers to
measure the temperatures of departing passengers. The airport is
still requiring all passengers to fill out a health questionnaire.
In the Yucatan, local press is reporting a 70% drop in use of local
transportation and 31% of hotel reservations in the state have been
cancelled. Local archeological sites and cinemas remain closed.
The Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad is preparing one floor of
the hospital in order to isolate any potential cases

-- MONTERREY: Campaign rallies for the candidates for Nuevo Leon
Governor have been postponed, and it is possible that the campaigns
for federal Congressional seats will be postponed as well. The
government in San Luis Potosi has closed nightclubs, restaurants,
bars and health clubs, and they are disinfecting public buses. In
addition, the San Luis Potosi public and private hospitals have
supplies of anti-flu medication. In Coahuila, the government is
distributing 500,000 face masks, and Tamiflu is also available.

The PAN Mayor of the Monterrey suburb of Santa Catarina told the CG
that the PAN Mayors throughout Mexico would meet on May 5, probably
in Queretaro (but possibly in Zacatecas) to discuss their public
message on the H1N1 crisis. Zacatecas city mayor Cuahtemoc
Calderon, the head of the PAN Mayors group (ANAC),would chair the
meeting.

Traffic remains very light in Nuevo Leon, and many post contacts are
traveling to Texas for the long holiday weekend. A number of public
and private venues have closed voluntarily. In San Luis Potosi
(SLP),the situation appears to be under control, and despite the
closing of public venues such as restaurants and bars, people seem
calmer than before. Church services have also been suspended. Most
people are staying home and many are wearing face masks. Some people
plan to leave for the United States for the long holiday weekend.
The SLP consular agency is informing the public that the border
remains open but to expect possible delays. The Monterrey Consulate
and the SLP consular agency are both providing information about the
CBP website on border wait times. Meanwhile, in Durango, private
businesses report that restaurant business has declined 15-60%.


-- TIJUANA: Government offices will close throughout our district
in accordance with the ordered closures announced by the GOM.
Prisons and state penitentiaries have suspended all visits with
inmates until further notice. No other closures have been ordered.
Restaurants and shops remain open, but very empty. Churches
announced they will have services but will take measures to limit
person to person contact. Many newspapers included special inserts
in today's editions on how to protect yourself from the flu.

Border wait times continue to be very low. CBP reports that they
are passively screening individuals for possible illness.
Unconfirmed media reports indicate that as many as 50 people were
referred to secondary inspection yesterday due to concerns over
possible illnesses.

Shops and restaurants continue to see a slowdown in business with
the exception of the sale facemasks, which are now becoming very
scarce. Several cruise ships originally scheduled to make stops in
Ensenada and Cabo San Lucas were diverted away from our district and
will now remain in the US. Air travel in and out of the Tijuana
airport continues as normal with virtually no cancelations.
In-coming and out-going air travelers are being screened on a
selective basis.

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--MATAMOROS: All businesses appear to be closing on Monday.


--NUEVO LAREDO: There continues to be less-than-normal traffic
going to the U.S. April 30 from Nuevo Laredo. Restaurants continue
to be open. There are only a few people on the streets in face masks
and the public is calm. Post has had only one call about the flu
since the H1N1 flu began.



9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS:
-------------- --------------

The Mexican media's coverage of the swine flu outbreak on April 30
focused on the GOM's announcement to suspend all non-essential
federal services from May 1 to 5. Reports highlighted that
"production and availability of food, medicine and basic services is
guaranteed." Headlines included, "Government, factories suspend
labor for five days" (El Universal); "Holiday decreed" (Reforma);
"Calderon says stay home" (Milenio); "Government suspends public
services" (Excelsior). Media coverage also reported the raising of
the WHO alert level to 5. Commentators pointed out that this "does
not change the measures that Mexico is already taking and does not
mean the virus is more dangerous, only that there are more cases
around the world."

Newspaper Reforma featured a poll that shows divided opinion among
Mexicans. According to the poll, 49% of Mexicans said they fear
contagion, while the other 50% said they were not concerned. Most
media also featured reports that US legislators have asked the US
Secretary of Homeland Security to consider closing the border with
Mexico, and the negative response of President Obama to this
petition. The media also reported on the installation of thermo
scanners in the Mexico City airport and the suspension of visa
appointments in the U.S. Consulates in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez.

Also noteworthy was President Calderon's meeting with former Health
secretaries to hear their views on how to go about the outbreak, and
the statement by the Secretary of Finance who estimated Mexico's GDP
will drop a further 0.5% due to the outbreak but assured that the
GOM has enough resources under the Catastrophe Expenses Fund and the
swap lines with the World Bank and the Inter American Development
Bank.



10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

FOOD SUPPLY: Wal-Mart supermarkets, Mexico's largest supermarket
chain, see no supply problems for the foreseeable future. Apart
from low stocks of cleaning alcohol, face masks and vitamin C,
Wal-Mart does not foresee running out of any basic items. If some
brands do sell out (i.e. tuna),they have other brands available.
Masks have been a problem, and their US parent store has ordered
several million. Wal-Mart Mexico's stores (Wal-Mart, Sam's Club,
Bodega Aurrera, Superama, Suburbia) are showing a slight surge in
sales, consistent with last week's pattern, particularly in higher
income neighborhoods.

Modest (i.e. not panicked) stockpiling by consumers is generalized,
but more pronounced in higher income areas. There is also a general
concern that many people are using credit cards to charge their
groceries, bucking a previous trend towards cash. Wal-Mart is also
the owner of the largest restaurant chain in Mexico, VIPS. Their
restaurants in the DF are open for take-out only, and revenues are
at 17% of their usual levels. Restaurants in the rest of the
country are running at 50%, with different states requiring
different maximum occupancy rates. Wal-Mart is fine with this for
the moment and comfortable with the level of operations.

The Central de Abasto, Mexico City's city-run central food
distribution market has put out a press release announcing that it
will "guarantee" the supply of food to the city. The city says
there has been no interruption of any food supply.


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11. TRANSPORTATION
--------------

In a 30 April press conference, Secretary of Communications and
Transportation Molinar Horcasitas emphasized the GOM's commitment to
guarantee transportation service. He noted that trucking companies
are operating normally, but that passenger loads on public
transportation, from minibuses to airplanes, have declined. He
stressed that the supply of food is not at risk. The Secretary's
comments track with our grasp of the transport situation. The
Secretary also noted he had talked by phone on 29 April with his
counterparts in the U.S., UK, Spain, Italy, and France -- making
special mention of the EU's decision not to suspend air traffic to
Mexico.

Both terminals at Mexico City International Airport (AICM) are
screening outbound passengers as of 30 April, including thermometer
readings for all. The process is not at this point delaying
departures. AICM is beginning an information campaign to reinforce
the message that the facility is open and functioning normally.
Flight cancellations remain few in number. Airports such as Cancun,
dedicated more directly to tourist travel, are seeing a more
pronounced slowdown. The new measures implemented by the
Secretariat of Communications and Transportation could spread to
additional airports beyond the initial 6 once the logistics are
mastered at the first sites, according to a contact at the
Directorate General for Civil Aviation (DGAC, Mexico's FAA).

Passenger volume on inbound flights from the U.S. is now very low.
Load factors of 15-20% are common. Outbound traffic remains brisk.
Reservation centers are not/not recording large numbers of Mexican
nationals leaving the country, apart from regular vacation travel
booked well in advance. Wide-body flights from Europe show very
low, while outbound flights are full of European tourists, many of
whom have advanced their departure dates.


BASSETT