SITREP 4 - Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico City

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 001185

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/PDA,
STATE FOR OES/IHB, PA, CAPRESS
STATE FOR MED/DASHO (MCFADDEN, RINALDO, KEYES)
STATE FOR MED/DIR (PENNER)
STATE FOR DS/IP/WHA
CDC FOR CCID/NCPDCID, CCID/NCIRD and COGH/DGPPC
DHS FOR CBP
USDA FOR USTA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC CVIS CASC KFLU KSCA TBIO MX
SUBJECT: SITREP 4 - Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico City

REF: MEXICO 1173


1. (U) SUMMARY:
--------------

The GOM announced that schools across Mexico will remain
closed until May 6. Mission Mexico decided to suspend
all non-essential public services at Embassy Mexico and
the nine Consulates until May 6. The EACs decided on
April 27 to defer all non-essential TDY travel to Mexico.
The Charge held a virtual Town Hall meeting with Embassy
staff and family members to provide information about the
outbreak and to answer questions. Management distributed
emergency preparedness information to Embassy staff and
provided surgical masks to employees upon request.



2. (U) MEXICAN GOVERNMENT ACTIONS:
--------------

The Secretary of Health stated in a press conference on
April 27:
--Schools will be closed across Mexico until May 6.
--COFEPRIS (MexicoQs FDA) is facilitating supplies of
oseltamivir; Mexico has one million doses of oseltamivir
and is expecting another 400,000 doses. This medicine
will be provided under strict medical control to avoid
viral resistance.
--The GOM remains focused controlling the spread of the
influenza outbreak.
--The number of cases could increase, and preventative
measures could be strengthened.
--Mexico has two labs to detect the virus, the National
Epidemiological Reference Institute (INDRE - the Mexican
CDC equivalent) and another in the State of Vera Cruz.
INDRE is processing 15 tests April 27 and another 100
April 28. Operations at the Vera Cruz lab are still to
be determined.

The Mexico City public transportations are operating as
usual. Both systems report that passenger volumes are
down between 30 and 50 percent. The public
transportation system is taking protective measures
including frequent cleaning of stations, and providing
masks and gloves to employees. Officials confirm that
there is an active discussion about possibly closing the
public transport system, but no decision has been made.

NORTHCOM donated 108,000 kits of personal protection
equipment (PPE) to Mexico January 2009. These kits have
been distributed as follows:
--50,000 to the Ministry of Health
--10,000 to the Ministry of Defense
--9,000 to the Navy
--The remaining kits have been distributed to Mexican
state authorities.


3. (U) ACTIONS BY NON GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS:
-------------- --------------

Many private organizations have cancelled events in
support of the GOM's recommendations against large public
gatherings.



4. (SBU) STATISTICS:
--------------

The Secretary of Health reported:
--1995 people have been hospitalized;
--775 remain hospitalized;
--1070 have been treated and discharged.
--149 individuals have died.

MEXICO 00001185 002 OF 004


According to the CDC, there are:
--26 lab confirmed cases of swine flu
--7 confirmed swine flu deaths (# may rise)

CDC officials are working with the GOM to conduct field
investigations of the 26 confirmed cases. To date, they
have collected the following information:
AGE:
Less than 5 yrs - 5
5-19 yrs - 4
20-39yrs - 9
40-59 yrs - 7
60+ yrs - 1

LOCATION:
Oaxaca - 1
DF - 17
Mexico State - 7
Veracruz - 1

CDC also reports that of 4 case reviews available - 2
were exposed to pigs within 2 weeks of illness, and all
were hospitalized.

We continue to have problems obtaining consistent
government statistical data.


5. (U) MANAGEMENT ISSUES:
--------------

The EAC met twice on April 27 to review tripwires and
discuss developments with the swine flu outbreak. The
EAC decided to defer all non-essential TDY travel to
Mexico in keeping with the April 27 CDC guidelines.

The Embassy distributed surgical masks to mission
employees.

The Management Section distributed emergency preparedness
guidance.

The Charge held a virtual Town Hall meeting with Mission
Mexico staff to provide information about the swine flu
outbreak and to answer questions from Embassy staff and
family members.

The Charge held a conference call with principal officers
at all constituent posts in which she asked Principal
Officers to review trip wires, conduct EACs and offer
liberal leave to employees. She requested that each post
review warden lists and prepare to send advisories to the
AMCIT community.


6. (U) SECURITY ISSUES:
--------------

RSOs at Mission Mexico Consulates have been asked to
review emergency supplies and vendors as well as work
with the local guards and diplomatic police to develop
contingencies in case of significant absenteeism.


7. (U) CONSULAR ISSUES:
--------------

Following the GOM's announcement to close schools
throughout Mexico, the Mission decided to suspend all
non-essential public services at the Embassy and
Consulates until May 6. A decision regarding immigrant
visa appointments at the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad
Juarez will be made on April 28. Operations at the U.S.
consular agencies throughout Mexico may be curtailed.

The Embassy issued an updated warden message April 27,

MEXICO 00001185 003 OF 004


the fourth in four days. The message refers to the
latest CD travel notice for Mexico and explains the
suspension of consular services.

Approximately one third of passport applicants with
appointments on April 28 have deferred their
appointments.

Embassy Mexico received approximately 100 swine-flu
related calls on April 26 and approximately 120 calls on
April 27. Most of the callers were inquiring about the
schedule for Consular Services (non-essential public
services have been suspended) and travel restrictions to
the U.S.



8. (U) BORDER ISSUES:
--------------

The Secretary of Health announced that probable swine flu
deaths have now been reported in 10 of 32 states in
Mexico.



9. (U) MEDIA REACTION/GENERAL POPULATION SENTIMENTS:
-------------- --------------

All Mexico City newspapers continue featuring front-page
coverage of developments in the swine flu outbreak.
Excelsior, El Financiero and El Economista focused on the
economic impact of the disease. Other newspapers ran a
headline that suggests all Mexico City is closed for
business. Photographs depict an empty city.

Opinion pieces are mixed. Many opinion makers like
Milenio editorial directors Ciro Gomez Leyva and Carlos
Marin believe the government has acted reasonably well.
"At last the state is working as such," wrote Gomez
Leyva."Without a doubt, the federal government has acted
with transparency," added Excelsior's Francisco Zea.
Government critics, however, criticize the government for
"taking too long" in announcing and reacting to the
outbreak. The electronic media continues reporting minute
by minute, including the latest measure Mexico's federal
government took to cancel classes in all the country at
least until May 6, the statement by DHS Secretary
Napolitano and the reissuing of an OMS alert.



10. (U) ECONOMIC IMPACT
--------------

BUSINESS CLIMATE: Mexican government and private sector
contacts report business as usual. The Secretary of
Labor had asked employers to be flexible with absenteeism
due to illness and childcare issues and encouraged
employers to consider allowing employees to telecommute.
However, most employees are reporting to work. Any
decreased commercial activity is largely a result of
taking precautions, rather than as a direct result of
illness itself. The Economic Development Secretariat of
the Mexico City government calculated the economic losses
last weekend to have reached 3 billion pesos (USD 213
million),and are projected to reach USD 990 million by
May 6. Restaurants, bars, and movie theaters are nearly
empty, and Mexico4s leisure and retail sectors face a
sharp decline as diners and shoppers are heeding official
warnings to avoid public gatherings, and staying home.
The manufacturing sector reports some absenteeism, due to
childcare issues, but no delays in the supply chain or
cancellations of orders. Many companies have cancelled
travel to Mexico for employees not based here. China,
Russia, Ukraine, and Nicaragua have reportedly closed

MEXICO 00001185 004 OF 004


their borders to Mexican exports Q specifically pork
products.

MACROECONOMIC IMPACT: Finance Minister Carstens said
today that the outbreak will have a 'temporary' negative
impact on the economy, but said it was too soon to say
how much. The stock exchange dropped 3.34% in todayQs
trading. Retail dollars were sold at 14.10 pesos to the
dollar, down from 13.30 at the end of last week.
U.S.-BOUND FLIGHTS: Mexico City international airport
(AICM) averages 136 daily flights to and from the U.S.,
i.e. nearly 70 flights in either direction. To date,
there has been no reduction in flight or pax volumes at
the airport. Toluca's only international flights are w/
Continental, 1-2 per day.

FOOD SUPPLIES: The Central de Abastos, located in
eastern Mexico City is the worldQs largest food
distribution center, with 8,000 trucks and 26,000 tons of
goods per day. The Central's director general reports
directly to Mayor Ebrard. He has instructions to keep
the Central operating at all costs, since it is key to
feeding Mexico City. While the potential closure of
Mexico City's mass transit system would affect employees
ability to report to work, the Central should be able to
-- and is preparing to -- continue operations.

Mexico's largest retail chain reports that exports,
imports and supplies at domestic stores are normal.
There was a spike in sales over the weekend which
included increased sales of disinfectants, Vitamin C,
over the counter medicines and face masks.



BASSETT