SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S VISIT TO MEXICO

202259
2009-04-14 16:11:00
09MEXICO1055
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 001055

NOFORN
SIPDIS

FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LESLIE BASSETT;
NSC FOR DAN RESTREPO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SNAR KCRM MX
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S VISIT TO MEXICO
CITY, APRIL 16-17,2009

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES LESLIE BASSETT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and
(D)


1. (Confidential) Key Points
--Despite the challenges presented by criminal violence in
Mexico and the global financial crisis, President Calderon
remains an effective and authoritative leader of an
economically and politically viable nation. He is genuinely
committed to leave a legacy at the end of his term in which
the rule of law prevails, Mexico,s criminal organizations
are much-diminished and the benefits of Mexico,s wealth and
trade are more widely shared among its citizens. Recognizing
our interdependence in each of these areas, he looks forward
to building strategic alliances with us to advance common
goals in the areas of security, commerce and sustainable
economic development.
--President Calderon will seek to engage you on a wide range
of issues, but will focus most intently on the domestic
security challenges facing Mexico from criminal violence.
He will be greatly appreciative of U.S. cooperation in this
area to date, but will press for even greater engagement on
our side of the border to address U.S. demand for illegal
narcotics, reverse the upward trend of illegal arms passing
into Mexico from the United States and stem illegal money
flows to Mexico,s cartels.
--Abroad (and to a traditionally inward-looking Mexican
public),President Calderon has promoted Mexico as an
international player, asserted its place as a regional power
and sought to burnish its image as a good place to do
business. President Calderon clearly sees the U.S.-Mexico
partnership as having positive effects in the hemisphere and
hopes to see the U.S. reassert its leadership in the region.
In this regard, he believes the upcoming Summit of the
Americas is a key opportunity for you to outline the
direction you plan to take your regional policy. Mexico
wants to take a low-profile approach as a problem-solver in
Port-of-Spain to keep the summit on track. Calderon will be
supportive of your vision overall and could be an important
partner in keeping grandstanding by certain regional leaders
to a minimum.
--Your visit will cement already solid relations between two
countries with deep historic ties. While close partners,
however, Mexico and the United States continue to experience
growing pains associated with expanding trade and broadening
security cooperation. Differences are is manageable if we
approach them in the spirit of cooperation among equals.
President Calderon is eager to establish both a close
personal and cooperative working relationship with you and
will be seeking confirmation that you view him as a true
partner.
Law and Order
--------------


2. (C) Clearly Mexico is not an impending failed state, as
some in the U.S. have described, but there are serious
consequences of failure if President Calderon does not
succeed in containing Mexico,s criminal organizations. In
all likelihood, Mexico,s federal system would be
significantly undermined should the cartels retain and
strengthen their presence in Mexico,s periphery. Mexico,s
political class and public, while currently supportive of the
president,s drive against the cartels, could slip back into
the complacent mindset that characterized the early decades
of the drug-trade here. Our bilateral law enforcement
dialogue could revert back to the antagonistic
finger-pointing on crime and violence of previous years.
Flow of drugs across our southern border would certainly
increase, feeding drug-abuse and criminality in the U.S.
Ultimately, violence and lawlessness along our common border
would seriously impede the robust trade which has benefited
both countries greatly in recent decades and reduce our
ability to secure our southern border.

3. (SBU) Recognizing these dangers, President Calderon
remains committed to improving the country's security
situation through aggressive law enforcement and reforms to
the country's policing and judicial institutions. Few
observers believe there are viable short-term alternatives to
his strategy of mounting joint military-law enforcement

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anti-narcotic operations which have drawn nearly 40,000
troops into the fray. Most here, however, pin their longer
term hopes on the important security and justice reform
packages President Calderon stewarded through the Mexican
Congress in recent months which, if appropriately
implemented, will help to modernize and restructure the
country's justice system, as well as improve and better
coordinate Mexico's disparate police forces.

4. (SBU) President Calderon needs ) and Mexico,s public
and political class, by and large, appreciate ) the helping
hand we have offered. The Merida Initiative provides
important material support to President Calderon,s strategic
goals and, as important, demonstrates shared resolve in
facing up to the challenges posed by organized crime. While
this initiative was originally conceived of as a three-year
plan, it is increasingly apparent the Mexican government
anticipates the kind of cooperation and assistance it entails
will extend much longer. Recent suggestions in the U.S. that
Mexico is unable to govern its territory in the face of
criminal violence, have focused attention on what Mexicans
think the U.S. itself needs to do, as part of broader Merida
cooperation, to help confront the common threat posed by
organized criminal networks. President Calderon will surely
raise his concern about the flow of arms south. He will
likely press you to actively follow up on the recently
concluded bilateral arms trafficking conference with concrete
actions, including reinstating the assault weapons
importation ban which lapsed in 2004. Similarly, President
Calderon is committed to improving interdiction of laundered
money which feeds cartel operations in Mexico and will
encourage you to expand and compliment efforts on both sides
of the border. Finally, President Calderon is looking for
the U.S. to rededicate itself to combating drug demand at
home.
Looking for Opportunities in Troubled Times
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Despite Mexico,s having slid into recession as a
result of the world financial crisis, things could be worse.
Its peso has regained strength against the dollar in recent
weeks and its stock market has rebounded to a degree as well.
Sound macroeconomic reforms enacted in recent years have
significantly buttressed Mexico,s ability to withstand the
impact of downturns in the U.S. and the world. Still, a
stimulus package put together in recent months by the
President may not be enough to pull Mexico out of recession
in the near term.

6. (SBU) Fully 82 percent of Mexico,s exports go to the
U.S. and we remain by far the country,s largest source of
foreign investment. Mexico,s long-term prospects are tied
to ours and President Calderon is particularly mindful of the
positive impact NAFTA has had on both our economies. He is
keen to avoid nasty trade disputes that might undermine
commitment to the treaty in both countries. While he
believes recent events such as the cessation of the
cross-border trucking model program mark a step backwards
towards protectionism, he will focus his discussion on ways
we can move the economic relationship in positive directions.
He has said he wants to build on NAFTA,s accomplishments
and would consider strengthening side agreements in labor and
the environment, if doing so did not undermine the existing
treaty. With other delegations he has recently raised
Mexico's interest in expanding NADBank's mandate to include
development projects distant from the border. Calderon will
certainly query you on the status of an alternative trucking
program, and explore how we might constructively approach
labor and environmental issues in the context of NAFTA.

7. (SBU) An outside-the-box, but clear-headed thinker,
President Calderon is looking for new areas in which we might
expand our partnership. For example, he believes North
America can demonstrate greater leadership on the
environment; recognizing your interest in this theme, he may
seek your partnership to combat climate change, deforestation
and industrial waste and foster the development of clean and
sustainable energy sources. Focusing on cooperation on
climate change and development of clean energy allows us to
deepen our energy relationship while avoiding long-standing
Mexican sensitivities about its oil resources. However,

MEXICO 00001055 003 OF 004


there may be one sensitive area President Calderon will want
to address by asking you to consider negotiating a bilateral
treaty on potential cross border oil reservoirs. Without
committing to an agreement, you may want to assure him that
we are committed to managing potential transboundary reserves
equitably.

8. (SBU) Calderon may also want to examine ways we can build
alliances in areas like healthcare. The U.S. suffers from a
shortage of health care workers and health care costs are
spiraling. Mexico produces a surplus of health care workers
and its health care costs are comparably much lower.
President Calderon has spoken of tapping synergies both in
terms of labor and services to reduce costs, improve service,
and expand flexibility. He may choose to frame his
discussion of immigration issues in these same terms, looking
for a revival and expansion of our H-2 temporary worker
program as an opportunity to marry Mexico,s surplus of
low-wage semi-skilled workers to the U.S. shortage of such
manpower. He will be interested in hearing about your
strategy to pursue immigration reform in the U.S. in the face
of the severe economic downturn.

9. (SBU) Calderon remains interested in making the
U.S.-Mexico border more secure, but also more competitive.
He may raise the need for greater investment in port of entry
structures along both sides of the border. The Mexican
President may also suggest we review usage of shared water
resources like the Colorado River.
Beyond the Bilateral Relationship
--------------


10. (C) President Calderon highly values the unique U.S. )
Mexico relationship and the steps he has taken during his
presidency to strengthen it. He also seeks a larger role
internationally for his country. President Calderon will
use Mexico,s two year tenure on the council to expand
Mexico,s growing engagement in the world, and encourage his
own countrymen to become more actively interested and
involved in world affairs. Mexico,s tenure has so far
been positive. We work closely and constructively with its
UN team both in Mexico City and New York, and Mexico,s
president will be receptive to your encouragement that Mexico
take on a more active global role and strengthen its
diplomatic partnership with us.

11. (SBU) Regionally, Mexico views itself as a key leader
and Calderon,s actions during his tenure have been designed
to capitalize on Mexico,s large commercial and cultural
footprint in the region. While deeply suspicious of
leftist-populism, he has avoided the bitter feuding his
predecessor waged with Cuba and Venezuela and sought to
normalize relations with the former. He is deeply concerned
with the spiral toward lawlessness in Central America and
seeks our cooperation, through the Merida Initiative and
other programs, to bolster the security and stability of his
southern neighbors.

12. (C) Just as President Calderon seeks to engage Mexico
with the rest of the world, he wants to see the U.S. more
engaged in the region. He views U.S. leadership as highly
positive (and has lamented that he feels somewhat isolated as
one of the few democratically elected regional leaders who is
genuinely committed to the free market and to strengthening,
rather than undermining, democratic institutions). He
believes your presidency will help burnish the U.S.,s image
and credibility at as time when empty populism has captured
the spotlight in the hemisphere. The upcoming Summit of the
Americas is a key opportunity for you to define the terms of
your engagement. While worried about the possibility of
grandstanding by Venezuela,s Hugo Chavez, and the issue of
Cuba being inserted divisively into the agenda, President
Calderon is optimistic that your participation in the Summit
will help establish a pattern of positive cooperation between
you and your regional counterparts. You can expect him to
be supportive of your goals for the summit.

13. (U) Mr. President, all of us in the Embassy community
look forward to your visit to Mexico with great excitement
and anticipation. If there is anything I or any member of
my staff can do to make your visit a success, please let me
know. Bassett


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BASSETT