SADC POISED TO SUSPEND MADAGASCAR AT MARCH 30

C O N F I D E N T I A L MBABANE 000081


STATE FOR AF/E (MBEYZEROV); AF/S (MJWILLS, MHARRIS,
EPELLETREAU)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2013
TAGS: PREL KDEM MA WZ
SUBJECT: SADC POISED TO SUSPEND MADAGASCAR AT MARCH 30
HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT

REF: A) STATE 029453B) ANTANANARIVO 217C) PRETORIA 582

Classified By: AMBASSADOR MAURICE S. PARKER FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. SUMMARY: According to Dr. John Kunene, Swazi Principal
Secretary (PS) at Ministry of Defense and SADC negotiator,
SADC Heads of State are poised to take the first step in
seeking a constitutionally-based resolution to the change of
power in Madagascar, by suspending that nation from the
organization. This action is expected to take place during
the community's March 30 Heads of State summit at Lozitha
Palace, Swaziland. Dr. Kunene stated that the Troika Heads
of State developed this recommendation during their meeting
in Swaziland on March 19, but has deferred the decision to
the SADC Heads of State. If the suspension does not compel
the de facto Head of State in Madagascar to abide by Malagasy
constitutional provisions for change of government, SADC is
willing to increase the pressure on that nation by imposing
trade sanctions. The upcoming SADC meeting will also take
assessment of the current Zimbabwean Government of National
Unity. End Summary

SADC Perspective on Madagascar


2. In response to reftel A, Embassy delivered a copy of
demarche to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ambassador
Parker met with Dr. John Kunene at the Swazi Ministry of
Defense to discuss the matter. Dr Kunene was delighted to
learn the position of the USG regarding Madagascar and will
share our DipNote with King Mswati III as background
information prior to the SADC Heads of State summit March 29
and 30, 2009. The Foreign Ministers will convene on the 29th
and the Heads of State on Monday, March 30th; ten have
confirmed their attendance. The PS said that SADC Troika
Heads of State clearly expressed their displeasure with the
coup d'etat during their March 19 meeting and will present
their recommendations for actions against the current
government of Madascar during the upcoming Heads of State
Summit.


3. According to Dr. Kunene, the SADC Troika views
Rajolina,s power grab as unconstitutional for two reasons:
a) the constitution requires the President to be a minimum of
40 years of age; and, b) the constitution places the leader
of parliament (speaker of the lower house) as second in line
in the event the President is unable to fulfill his/her
duties. Since the de facto President is only 34 years old,
nor is he the head of parliament, he is constitutionally
ineligible to hold the office of President.


4. At the upcoming summit, the Troika will recommend that
SADC negotiators (including Dr. Kunene) return to Madagascar
for meetings with Rajolina and the colonels to propose that
former President Ravalomanana be authorized to safely return
to the country. The government should hold either a
referendum of confidence/no confidence on the democratically
elected president, or the nation should hold multi-party
elections to determine a new president. Dr. Kunene said that
the colonels and Mayor Rajolina should also be granted
pardons for holding a mutiny and coup d'etat. If the current
government of Madagascar refuses to accept these terms, SADC
will place pressure on the island nation by expelling it from
the regional organization. If within six months the
expulsion does not lead to a change of government, SADC will
recommend strict trade sanctions against Madagascar. Dr.
Kunene stated that these actions would seriously impact the
Malagasy economy, particularly the tourism industry.
Developments in Zimbabwe


5. The status of Zimbabwe's Government of National Unity
will be the second item on SADC's agenda for the Heads of
State meeting. Dr. Kunene said that SADC is pleased with
recent developments in Zimbabwe, particularly President
Mugabe's recent call for national tolerance of members of the
MDC party. He described SADC as the "midwife" of the
Government of National Unity, and said it plans to continue
closely monitoring events in Zimbabwe to ensure success.

Comment


6. Dr. Kunene is optimistic that SADC actions will work if
nations like the United States, and international
organizations, join SADC in exerting steady pressure on the
GOM. He warned that France could be the fly in the ointment.
He stated that he received a telephone call from the French
Charge d' Affaires in Antananarivo on March 26. Although he
did not divulge the content of the conversation, he said that
he suspects the GOF might undermine international efforts by
increasing assistance to Madagascar.


7. Despite Dr. Kunene's optimism for strong actions against
Madagascar, SADC actions against member states have rarely
matched its internal rhetoric. Dr. Kunene and Ambassador
Parker have agreed to have a telephone conversation following
Monday's SADC summit.


PARKER