PRINCE DAVID: ECONOMIC COLLAPSE TO FORCE REFORMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MBABANE 000339

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR WZ
SUBJECT: PRINCE DAVID: ECONOMIC COLLAPSE TO FORCE REFORMS
IN 2010

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Classified By: Ambassador Earl Irving for Reasons
1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prince David Dlamini, half-brother to King
Mswati III, a former Minister of Justice, and chairman of the
constitutional commission that drafted Swaziland's current
constitution, privately told Ambassador Irving that the
pending economic breakdown in the kingdom would force
political reforms. Worsening economic conditions, including
rising unemployment, closures of factories, and the drop on
Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) receipts, said Prince
David, would compel government and royal family in 2010 to
abandon the tinkhundla system (a method of electing
representatives to Parliament from each of the 55
chieftancies; it currently does not allow parties to
participate in elections) in the face of a progressive-led
protest. The Prince, who is a member of the Queen Mother's
advisory council, said King Mswati III is surrounded by
"dishonest, uneducated people" who provide the King with bad
advice. The Prince indicated that the King's inaction on
reforming the system would not change even if powerful senior
traditional leaders such as Prince Mahlaba and Prince
Matitsela were to pass on. He recalled that in 1996
Presidents Nelson Mandela, Robert Mugabe, and Ketumile Masire
met with King Mswati III in Pretoria to push the monarch
towards democracy; the King stated he relied on his advisors
for political issues and no subsequent change occurred. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) On December 14, Prince David Dlamini, half-brother to
King Mswati III, a former Minister of Justice, and chairman
of the constitutional commission that drafted Swaziland's
current constitution, privately told Ambassador Irving that
the pending economic breakdown in the kingdom would force
political reforms onto the system in 2010. He cited the
recent departure of South African paper company SAPPI, the
closure of factories in Matsapha (mostly textile companies
connected to AGOA benefits),layoffs from a timber company in
Piggs Peak, high levels of unemployment, and the coming drop
in SACU receipts, as the local forces which would compel the
government and royal family to abandon the tinkhundla system
(a method of electing representatives to Parliament from each
of the 55 chieftancies; it currently does not allow parties
to participate in elections) in the face of a progressive-led
protest. Prince David said that when the constitution was
drafted, the plan had been that the tinkhundla system would
be a temporary transitional measure, which would be removed
once the country was prepared to reform the system of
government.


3. (C) Regarding how the United States might best be able to
encourage change towards a multi-party democracy, Prince
David stated that asking policy leaders such as Prime
Minister Barnabas Sibusiso Dlamini how Swaziland intended to
tackle its economic woes would be the most effective method,
as opposed to loudly criticizing the monarchy. He also
advised the Embassy not to discount former Prime Minister
A.T. Dlamini, who is the current director of the King's
investment fund, Tibiyo Taka Ngwane. The Prince, who is a
member of the Queen Mother's advisory council, said King
Mswati III is surrounded by "dishonest," generally uneducated
people, who provide the King with bad advice. Nevertheless,
he indicated that the King's inaction on reforming the system
would not change even if powerful senior traditional leaders
such as Prince Mahlaba and Prince Matitsela were to pass on.
Thinking back on past efforts to prompt reform, he recalled
that in 1996 Presidents Nelson Mandela, Robert Mugabe, and
Ketumile Masire met with King Mswati III in Pretoria to push
the monarch towards democracy; the King stated to the leaders
he relied on his advisors for political issues and no
subsequent change occurred. Prince David emphasized that
what the King says to foreign leaders cannot be relied upon,
because he always deflects and temporizes to bring pressure
off himself.


4. (C) In discussing the current Prime Minister, Prince David
said he was brought in specifically by the King to clamp down
on dissent in the wake of the September 2008 bombing of a
bridge near a royal residence, probably on the advice of
Prince Mahlaba.


5. (C) The Prince indicated he meets with civil society
leaders such as labor leader Jan Sithole and People's United
Democratic Movement (PUDEMO) President Mario Masuku, and
advises progressives to work slowly and not be provocative.
He believes that civic education and understanding the
constitution will eventually lead to political reform.


6. (C) COMMENT: Prince David has been an advocate for
political reform for years, and some sources indicated the
King asked him to step down as Justice Minister for the
Prince's safety because of death threats from traditionalists

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unhappy with the constitution. He hints that he has been
sidelined politically in his current capacity. While the
Prince posits a plausible scenario of economic pressure
leading to political opening in 2010, we see no signs here of
government willingness to engage its critics. END COMMENT.
IRVING