SWAZILAND'S POPULATION GROWTH APPROACHES ZERO; GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS MBABANE 000310

SIPDIS

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI KHIV PINS WZ
SUBJECT: SWAZILAND'S POPULATION GROWTH APPROACHES ZERO; GOVERNMENT
YET TO RELEASE FULL CENSUS RESULTS

REF: 1) 07 MBABANE 443


1. SUMMARY: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released some
figures from the final 2007 Population and Housing Census report,
indicating a Swaziland population of 1,018,449, compared with
980,727 in 1997. The anemic population increase of 37,722 people
over ten years represents a growth rate of 0.38 percent, compared to
a growth rate of 2.97 percent over the previous 10 year period.
Ministry of Economic Planning and Development Chief Economist Nomsa
Ntibane indicated that current projections show that by the 2050 the
country may only have 700,000 Swazis left alive. The current slow
growth results from declining fertility rates and increases in the
mortality rate. Most observers privately point to high HIV/AIDS
infection rates as the main factor behind the drop, including a fall
in life expectancy from 60 in 1997 to 33 in 2007. END SUMMARY.


2. The Central Statistics Office has released some figures from the
final 2007 Population and Housing Census report, indicating a
Swaziland population of 1,018,449, compared with 980,727 in 1997.
The 1,018,449 number represents de jure population, i.e., the people
counted in their usual place of residence. The de facto population,
counted in the place where they spent the night of the census, was
844,223. Projections in 1997 anticipated a 2007 de jure population
of 1.1 million. The anemic population increase of 37,722 people
over 10 years represents a growth rate of 0.38 percent, compared to
a growth rate of 2.97 percent over the previous ten year period.
Ministry of Economic Planning and Development Chief Economist Nomsa
Ntibane indicated in a press report on October 24 that current
projections show that by the 2050 the country may only have 700,000
Swazis left alive.


3. The current slow growth results from declining fertility rates
and increases in the mortality rate. The number of children per
woman has fallen from 6.4 in 1986, to 4.5 in 1997, and 3.8 in 2007.
The infant mortality rate increased from 78 per 1000 births in 1997
to 85 in 2007. Life expectancy dropped dramatically from 60 in 1997
to 33 in 2007. Most observers here privately point to high HIV/AIDS
infection rates as the main factor behind the drop in life
expectancy.


4. Swaziland's population remains predominantly rural, with 78.9
percent living in rural areas. The number of males per 100 women is
89.6 throughout the country, with only 88.9 males per 100 women in
the rural regions. 39.6 percent of the population is younger than
15 years, and 52 percent is younger than 20 years old. The median
age is 17.6 years.


5. Although earlier Central Statistics Office publications and
statements indicated that the full 2007 census report would be made
available by the end of September 2008, numerous officials at the
CSO stated to Embassy officials that the full report was still not
available. An official from the Swaziland Office of the UN
Population Fund stated she could not comment on the census, and
referred all questions back to the CSO. According to a foreign
consultant to the CSO, the Swazi government has not been able to
release the final results of the census due to ongoing difficulties
resulting from the initial data collection and aggregation.


6. COMMENT: In September 2007, the provisional 2007 census results
indicated a de jure population of 912,229, which would have
represented a negative population growth. Negative public reaction
to those provisional figures may have made CSO and government
officials reluctant to subsequently share information. END
COMMENT.