SWAZI FM REQUESTS COMMITMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L MBABANE 000149


STATE FOR AF/E, AF/S, AF/RSA, IO/PKO
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2019
TAGS: IO MA PGOV PK WZ
SUBJECT: SWAZI FM REQUESTS COMMITMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL
ASSISTANCE REF MADAGASCAR

REF: (A) ANTANANARIVO 444 (B) STATE 63557

Classified By: CDA SARAH MORRISON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Swazi Foreign Minister Lutfo Dlamini stated
that the current Swazi position on Madagascar was "basically"
in accord with the urgent demarche (reftel B),but that for
progress to be made toward the holding of elections, two
initial issues must be resolved: (a) Funding for elections
must be found, which he estimated to cost 30 million USD; (b)
Neutral, respected security forces (e.g. UN Peacekeepers)
must be in place to assure free and fair elections without
intimidation and safety for all candidates. The FM requested
active and immediate assistance from the USG to help secure
assurances that these two conditions will be met, which he
would like to report at the SADC Summit this weekend. He
believes that with such assurances, SADC will have leverage
to push forward coordinated efforts to reach a negotiated
consensus on the process leading to elections. Post requests
an update on any plans or even discussions that can be shared
with the FM today or tomorrow regarding who will take
responsibility for these two issues. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) FM Dlamini responded quickly to a personal note from
the DCM attached to the demarche Post delivered that included
all points in reftels. He was calling from a cell phone and
reception was poor, cutting off a couple of times. CDA
understood him to say that he had just been in discussion
with the SADC secretariat regarding the upcoming
extraordinary summit. He said he had also talked to Kofi
Annan regarding (a) Madagascar is broke and SADC could not
fund elections, which would probably cost 30 million USD, and
(b) in order to convince Ravalomanana's people to seriously
work toward early new elections and give up on forceful
return to power, neutral security forces must be in place to
guarantee the safety of candidates and prevent intimidation
of voters. The FM believes that until some concrete
international commitment is forthcoming to show the
commitment to making an election in 2009 work, all parties
know meetings are just talk and empty declarations.


3. (C) In a conversation with his counterpart in the FM,
Embassy pol officer was told that the use of a SADC brigade
to return Ravalomanana to power had dissipated when it became
clear that South Africa and Botswana would not support it.


4. (C) ACTION REQUEST: The FM asked whether the USG could
help him/SADC break the stalemate by helping to identify who
would provide the election funding, and by securing an
assurance that the UN would provide peacekeepers so that a
peaceful, free and fair campaign and election could be held
before the end of 2009. If I do not call him today, he will
be calling me for a response from South Africa. If there
have been no commitments yet on these issues, next best would
be a statement that serious attention is being given to them
by the USG/UN/AU/ or other influential parties, as may be the
case, and should be concretized by (perhaps the AU summit in
early July). Please advise appropriate response CDA should
give to the FM.


MORRISON