ELECTIONS DISPUTE: LCD "WANTS TO TALK," BUT ABOUT WHAT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MASERU 000261

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S AND INR/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV LT
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS DISPUTE: LCD "WANTS TO TALK," BUT ABOUT WHAT?

REF: MASERU 251 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth C. Power, Deputy Chief of Mission.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: In a July 30 meeting with CDA, Foreign
Minister Kenneth Tsekoa elaborated on points made at a July 29
press conference by the governing Lesotho Congress for Democracy
(LCD),stating that the government wants to talk to the
opposition parties to find a resolution to the current impasse
over the disputed allocation of proportional representation
seats in parliament. As there is no indication that the LCD
will consider supporting the reallocation of seats, it is not
clear that the opposition will agree to sit down with the GOL.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On July 29, LCD party publicist Khotso Matla held a
press conference at which he urged Basotho not to participate in
the August 3 stay away called by opposition parties. In
addition, he stated that Basotho should sit down together and
resolve their own problems, without the interference of
outsiders, in a reference to SADC mediator Ketumile Masire,
whose report was "baffling" and not helpful."


3. (C) On July 30, CDA met with Tsekoa to discuss the stay away
and related political issues; CDA had earlier scheduled a
meeting with LCD Secretary General and Minister of
Communications Mothetjoa Metsing for July 24, but Metsing did
not show up. Tsekoa lamented the current situation, noting that
both sides are firmly entrenched in their positions with no
signs of accepting compromise. When asked about the way forward
out of the impasse, he stated that he was recommending to the
Prime Minister that a meeting be called with the opposition
leaders, to bring everyone around the same table and see whether
some compromise could be reached. Tsekoa also noted that when
he travels to Swaziland this weekend for the meeting of the SADC
Organ on Politics, Defense, and Security, he would also canvass
his fellow foreign ministers to see whether they would support
further SADC intervention; he specifically mentioned that
including former South African President Thabo Mbeki as a
negotiator would be helpful. He noted that the Independent
Electoral Commission already has a draft law written that closes
several loopholes and will provide a stronger electoral system
in the future.


4. (C) Regarding the stay away itself, Tsekoa said that the
government was ready for it, with all civil servants called in
off leave to ensure that they were at their desks on Monday
morning. He stated that any citizen has the right to stay home
from work and that the GOL would only intervene if the
opposition attempted to "enforce" the stay away using
intimidation, road blocks, or violence of any kind. Tsekoa was
not confident that there would be much public participation in
the stay away, but acknowledged that the opposition had used
intimidation tactics in the past to inflate the numbers of those
who did not report to work. Tsekoa described several violent
incidents from the 1998 riots, during which he held the position
of Government Secretary, and noted that no one wanted to see a
return to those days.


5. (U) Meanwhile, the Maseru Chamber of Commerce and the
Maseru Region Transport Operators (MRTO) organization have
stated that are holding mediation efforts on July 30 in a "last
ditch effort" to bring both sides together and resolve the
conflict peacefully. They are concerned about the effects on
their businesses of either a prolonged stay away or any
resulting political violence. The MRTO has already stated that
they will not support the stay away as an organization, although
the GOL has stated that it is ready to provide transport as
needed, just in case.


6. (C) COMMENT: Tsekoa's comments about talks with the
opposition are not reassuring, as he made it very clear that
reallocation of seats will not be on the table. Given the
opposition's firm statement that reallocation of seats is the
only acceptable solution, it does not seem likely that they will
even come to the table. Tsekoa's proposal to continue the SADC
mediation is likely to be simply a means of prolonging the
process; as more time passes with the GOL holding the disputed
20 seats, the prospect of having to give them up becomes less
and less likely. His acknowledgement of how much Lesotho has to
lose if violence breaks out was important, but he gave no
indication that the LCD was willing to bend at all to prevent
the violence.

POWER