ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT ASSAILAINTS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000112

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S
PRETORIA FOR DATT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV ASEC LT
SUBJECT: ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: RUMORS SWIRL ABOUT ASSAILAINTS'
AFFILIATION

REF: A. MASERU 109 B. MASERU 110 C. MASERU 25

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CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth C. Power, Deputy Chief of Mission.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
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Summary
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1. (U) Following the April 22 assassination attempt on Prime
Minister Pakalitha Mosisili (refs A & B),rumors have been
swirling wildly about who might have been behind the attack.
Among those mentioned as possible masterminds are the Lesotho
Liberation Army, political opposition leader Tom Thabane, and
current Minister of Natural Resources Monyane Moleleki. GOL
sources are not indicating which direction their investigation
is leading them, and post can only speculate about who may have
been responsible.

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Lesotho Liberation Army
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2. (U) The Lesotho Liberation Army (LLA) was formed in the
mid-1970s as the armed wing of the Basotholand Congress Party
(BCP),whose apparent victory in the 1970 election led the
ruling Basotho National Party to suspend the constitution. The
LLA launched armed attacks against the government for years,
based in and supported by South Africa. When the BCP was
democratically elected into power in 1993, the LLA was formally
disbanded and none of its members were incorporated into the
Lesotho Defense Force, although this was initially proposed.
Some former LLA members were given jobs in government
ministries and public enterprises. However, those who did not
get jobs or other support from the government were left angry
and disillusioned. This group of former LLA members has
appealed to the current government for assistance several times,
as the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) was formed
when the BCP split in 1997 and is seen by the ex-LLA members as
the logical successor to their original supporters. Despite
meeting with the Prime Minister in 2006 to air their grievances
and request financial assistance for income-generating projects,
these ex-LLA members have not received any assistance from the
government.


3. (U) In the aftermath of the June/July 2007 attacks on
ministerial residences, there were rumors that former members of
the LLA had fled to South Africa, and the police later indicated
that former LLA members were considered suspects in the attacks.
Although no LLA members were arrested in connection with these
attacks, it was common knowledge that the group was still
unhappy with the lack of government response to their requests
for assistance. Following this week's assassination attempt,
sources within the LDF indicated that it was possible that
"those responsible for the 2007 attacks" might be behind this
attack, as well. Although the LLA was not named, the
implication is that they would again be considered a suspect.

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Political Opposition
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4. (U) The All Basotho Convention (ABC) is the country's
largest opposition party and currently, the only one with
sufficient strength to be considered a viable opposition to the
LCD. The party was formed in 2006 when its leader, Tom Thabane,
left the LCD. The LCD and ABC have a difficult relationship,
particularly since the 2007 elections, when the questions over
the legitimacy of both parties' political alliances with other,
smaller parties led to disputes over how many Parliament seats
would be apportioned to each. This dispute led to a SADC
mediation process, which has been stalled since October 2008,
with no resolution in sight. In addition, the LCD has refused
to formally recognize Thabane as the leader of the opposition,
thereby denying him access to a salary and a government vehicle,
which are perks of that designation. On April 17, Thabane was
quoted in an interview with the Lesotho Times as saying, in
relation to the SADC mediation process, "I am not in a position
to say where we will be going from here~.My only advice for this
government is for them to reopen the dialogue, bring in the
experts that were expelled by them. That is possibly their last
chance for a peaceful solution to this crisis." The GOL has
referenced this comment indirectly in press statements about the
assassination attempt.

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Internal LCD conflict
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5. (U) In January 2009, the LCD held internal elections and
chose a new governing body for the party (ref C). In this
election, Monyane Moleleki, currently Minister of Natural
Resources, lost his bid to retain his position as

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Editor-in-Chief of the party paper, which he had held for over
10 years and is traditionally a position of power; meanwhile,
Mothajoe Metsing, Minister of Communications, was elected
Secretary General. Political analysts view Moleleki's star as
falling, while Metsing's is rising. Moleleki and Metsing have
both been targets of unsuccessful attacks on ministers, although
there has been public speculation that Moleleki's attack was
orchestrated by him as means to raise his political profile.
Current rumors indicate that the attempt on the Prime Minister
may have been a play by Moleleki to take power.

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Comment
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6. (C) The GOL has not revealed any information to indicate
whom they think was behind the assassination attempt. The
attack has taken the country by surprise; even looking back with
the advantage of hindsight, there were no hints that such an act
was about to take place. There have been the usual political
squabbles between the governing LCD and the opposition parties,
but nothing out of the ordinary since the 2007 national
elections.


7. (C) Post believes that Moleleki is the least likely culprit
in this assassination attempt. He is currently a minister, his
wife holds a position with the local UN offices, and his
sister-in-law is the minister of health; he would have much to
lose by staging an abortive attack. His family is
well-established here and in recent conversations with the
Ambassador, he has stated that he is content and looking forward
to the future with the LCD. He has displayed no public
animosity towards either Metsing or Mosisili and appears to be a
staunch supporter of the current government. Although Thabane
did make comments referring to the 2007 attacks, he does not
seem to be a likely candidate either. The ABC has strong ties
to the ANC and Jacob Zuma, and with party membership growing,
the ABC's star seems to be on the rise (septel). Political
pundits expect the ABC to have a strong showing in the 2010
local elections, and, if they can sustain their current
momentum, in the 2012 national elections, too.


8. (C) The LLA has motive and a history of violent attacks
within Lesotho, to include bombings, attacks on police stations,
and possibly the 2007 attacks. The organization's history of
maintaining a base within South Africa might also explain the
presence of non-Basotho among the assailants (ref B). With no
insight into the GOL's ongoing investigations of the
assassination attempt, it is difficult to speculate about a
culprit. However, given the above factors, post currently
estimates that the LLA is most likely to be behind the attack.
NOLAN