ORTEGA ACCUSES EMBASSY OF CONSPIRACY, EXPULSION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000447

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA ASSISTANT SECRETARY SHANNON
DEPT ALSO FOR WHA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV APER NU
SUBJECT: ORTEGA ACCUSES EMBASSY OF CONSPIRACY, EXPULSION
THREAT-TALK CONTINUES

REF: A. MANAGUA 433

B. MANAGUA 425

C. 2008 MANAGUA 848

Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan for reasons 1.4 b & d.


1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. President Ortega's assertion that the
U.S. Embassy is conspiring against him and that he is
gathering information for an eventual response continue to be
"topic A" in Managua. While independent media have responded
with evident skepticism, various second-tier Sandinista
officials have echoed his words. This week former President
and convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman and senior figures from
his Constitutional Liberal Party have seized on the U.S.
conspiracy theme as well, but have made themselves the
supposed victim. It is impossible to tell whether Ortega
will follow the path of Chavez, Morales and Correa and go
through with any expulsions of Embassy personnel or whether,
as often happens here, the issue will die a natural death.
END SUMMARY.

Post-SOA Ortega: U.S. Conspiring Against Me, Expulsions
Possible
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2. (S/NF) During an April 22 appearance on Cuban television,
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega accused the U.S. Embassy
of conspiring to overthrow his government. As we reported in
REFTEL B, Ortega comments and threats asserted that Embassy
officials have been traveling throughout Nicaragua engaged in
conspiratorial meetings. Ortega claimed he had "evidence" of
these "conspiratorial activities" and promised to soon bring
forward this information. He further implied that these
revelations would force him to act, alluding to expulsions.
In an additional bizarre twist, this week Arnoldo Aleman and
senior PLC party figures have seized on the conspiracy theme
as well, but have made themselves, not the Ortega government,
the targets of our supposed skullduggery.

Near Universal FSLN Support for Ortega's comments
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3. (S/NF) Not surprisingly, reaction from most FSLN figures
has been supportive of Ortega, and almost taken a tone of
"It's about time." Initial public comment came from mostly
second-tier FSLN officials -- Human Rights Ombudsman Omar
Cabezas and FSLN International Relations Directorate member
Jacinto Suarez.


4. (S/NF) The first FSLN official to comment was
Presidential Economic Advisor, Bayardo Arce who actually sent
a mixed message. On Thursday evening, Arce told media he
believed that Ortega would not have made such assertions
without some evidence, but also expressed his view that
relations with the U.S. were "normal." He did express some
surprise at Ortega's comments, adding that he would await
Ortega's return for further explanation of the conspiracy.
On Friday, Human Right Ombudsman Omar Cabezas clearly
accepted Ortega's allegations of U.S. conspiracy, adding that
if he were President, he would have called for expulsion of
U.S. diplomats "a long time ago." Throughout the weekend,
Jacinto Suarez was the face and voice of the FLSN response in
print and on TV. Suarez, a senior member of the FSLN's
International Relations Directorate and a Parlacen deputy,
disputed Arce's assertion about normal relations by stating
that the U.S. continued to conspire in the region, including
in Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.


5. (S/NF) This week, Gustavo Porras, a leading FSLN assembly
member and Sandinista union leader, made matter-of-fact
comments to National Assembly media that Nicaragua's unions,
of course, supported Ortega's assertions that the U.S.
Embassy was conspiring against the government. On Wednesday,
April 29, Porras added to his screed by accusing Ambassador
Callahan of inciting separatist actions by indigenous groups
during a recent trip to the Atlantic Coast, as well as
engaging in conspiratorial acts in Yugoslavia -- a location
in which the Ambassador never set foot. Vice President Jaime
Morales, himself a rather isolated figure, is the only GON
official to express skepticism about the charges referring to
"imaginary conspiracies."

FSLN-Controlled Media "Confirms" U.S. Admission of Guilt
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6. (S/NF) Over the last week, FSLN-controlled,
government-friendly media have also repeated and expanded the
conspiracy drumbeat. We have been told that last Friday
afternoon (April 24),Radio Ya ran an information program
about conspiratorial activities and travel of Embassy
personnel, which identified the Embassy's Political Counselor
by name. On both Monday and Tuesday, the FSLN-run electronic
weekly "El 19," -- a reference to the July 19 date when the
Sandinista Revolutionaries entered Managua -- ran multiple
stories about the conspiratorial activities of the Embassy.
Monday's lead story was headlined, "Callahan confirms his
meetings with the Rightists to conspire against the
government." The story is based on the Ambassador's Friday
responses to media questions following the Merida signing
ceremony, in which he stated that the Embassy does, in fact,
meet with all sectors and levels of society, including
opposition parties, church figures, government officials as
well as sports, cultural and social figures, as is permitted
under the diplomatic norms outlined in the Vienna
Conventions. "El 19" focused on the "meet with opposition
and church figures" portion ignoring the balance of his
statement. Articles on Tuesday re-stated the Ambassador's
"admission" as evidence of conspiracy. NOTE: "El 19" is the
FSLN government's primary communications method with party
faithful. It is regularly distributed in electronic format
under a cover letter on official government logo and signed
by Rosario Murillo. END NOTE.

Pacto Supports Conspiracy, But with a Twist
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7. (S/NF) One of the more bizarre aspects of this
environment has been the reaction of the Constitutional
Liberal Party (PLC). In what can only be described as a
schizophrenic response, several senior PLC insiders,
including PLC deputies Wilfredo Navarro and Francisco Aguirre
Sacasa, denounced Ortega's comments as harmful to the
national image, yet at the same time did attack Embassy
activities, but as a conspiracy against Aleman and the PLC.
Both Navarro and Aguirre have themselves taken very public
postures. They, along with Aleman, have accused the Embassy
of instigating and organizing this week's trip to Washington
by Eduardo Montealegre; denouncing the visit as a direct
assault on Aleman and the PLC, and as a move to isolate
Ortega by ending all assistance including a definitive
cessation of MCC. Aleman himself has aggressively tried to
play the victim. His virulent attacks assert that the
Embassy actions are the latest episode is the U.S. conspiracy
to destroy Nicaragua's Liberals. He sought to position
himself as the latest patriotic Liberal "victim" of the U.S.
by invoking the so-called Knox Note sent in 1909 by the U.S.
informing Nicaraguan Liberal President Zelaya he would be
replaced, and the so-called "Carter Note" in 1979 informing
Somoza that the U.S. would no longer support his regime. A
Monday article in La Trinchera, a newsletter financed by
Aleman's party, claimed that the U.S. had spent $30 million
dollars in its recent "unsuccessful efforts to destroy" him
and the PLC.

Comment
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8. (S/NF) Ortega has not yet returned to the theme of the
Embassy conspiracy, and until then, his adherents will
continue to bang the drum on this issue. With the media
suggesting that he in effect "put up or shut up," we cannot
rule out that he will take some ill-advised step, including
possible expulsions. The termination of Millennium Challenge
Corporation assistance, should it happen, could be a trigger.

On the other hand, it is entirely possible that having
squeezed the issue to the maximum by distracting Nicaragua's
population from its very real problems, he will drop it for a
while. In the meantime we will continue to engage, prudently
but vigorously, with the full range of Nicaragua's democratic
politicians and civic activists, consistent with our rights
under the Vienna Conventions.
CALLAHAN