JUNE 7 ELECTIONS: LUXEMBOURG'S LEADING POLITICIANS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 LUXEMBOURG 000137

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON PREL LU
SUBJECT: JUNE 7 ELECTIONS: LUXEMBOURG'S LEADING POLITICIANS

REF: A. LUXEMBOURG 128

B. 08 LUXEMBOURG 3


1. Opinion polls show that Luxembourg's coalition government
will be retained in the June 7 national elections (ref a).
The dominant member of the coalition is the Christian Social
People's Party (CSV),led by veteran political powerhouse and
current Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker. The junior
partner in the sometimes awkward coalition is the Luxembourg
Socialist Workers Party (LSAP),led by Deputy Prime Minister
and Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn. The Democratic Party
(DP),Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR),and the
Green Party all have seats in the Parliament but not in the
Cabinet. Following is a review of the key players in each of
the major parties.

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CHRISTIAN SOCIAL PEOPLE'S PARTY (CSV) - LARGE AND IN CHARGE
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2. The Prime Minister: Jean-Claude Juncker, 56, has been
Prime Minister since 1995 and Minister of Finance since 1989.
Juncker is the longest-serving head of government in the
European Union and was recently elected to a third term as
head of the Eurogroup (the 16-member club of all European
nations employing the euro as the national currency). Prior
to the Irish "no" vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Juncker's name
was championed as one of the leading candidates to serve as
the European Union's first President (ref b). Even prior to
the Lisbon Treaty's partial demise, Juncker never publicly
endorsed his own potential candidacy, regularly stating that
he was primarily focused on his own country. The possibility
of Juncker's leaving Luxembourg for the EU's top job
initially created anxiety within the CSV. As the Lisbon
ratification process has stalled, speculation about Juncker's
eventual ascension seems to have vanished, and his prospects
for that job are now considered slim. The Prime Minister's
ironclad grip on CSV leadership appears ensured and a
succession fight appears delayed for another election cycle.


3. Juncker is the uncontested champion of national politics,
enjoying approval ratings of over 90%. He is one of the rare
politicians from Luxembourg with international appeal.
Juncker is considered a skilled and successful negotiator and
an expert on EU financial issues. He is the first permanent
President of the Eurogroup, having served three consecutive
terms, even though Eurogroup members originally agreed that
the post was renewable only once. Juncker may be tiring of
the position, though, in part due to challenges to his
leadership. French President Sarkozy has repeatedly called
for more individualized, national economic governance for
Eurogroup members. Juncker has been involved in Luxembourg's
national politics since 1982. He previously headed his
country's Ministries of Labor and Budget.


4. Luc Frieden: Frieden, 46, is Luxembourg's Minister of
Justice and Minister of Treasury and Budget. He is widely
perceived as Juncker's right-hand man and heir to the CSV
leadership (and likely Prime Ministership). Frieden lacks
Juncker's charisma, but he is a respected technocrat who
enjoys broad support within business circles, especially in
Luxembourg's all-important financial services sector. He
enjoys high visibility and experience on the EU level, as a
heavy dose of EU integration has fallen into his area of
expertise, Justice and Home Affairs. Frieden managed his
party's sensational victory in Luxembourg Central District's
2004 elections, previously considered a Democratic Party
stronghold. Frieden continually jockeys with Foreign
Minister Asselborn for the coveted
second-most-popular-politician-in-Luxembourg title (Juncker
is considered untouchable). The most recent polls, however,
placed Frieden in third, a few percentage points behind
Asselborn.


5. Francois Biltgen: Biltgen, 51, is the president of the
CSV Party and holds the top spot of three Ministries:
Employment; Culture, Higher Education and Research; and
Religious Communities. Biltgen strongly advocates for
traditional social and moral views, garnering significant
popularity. He represents the more conservative wing of the
CSV. Biltgen was once seen as a potential successor to
Juncker, but has taken a couple of staggering hits over the
years. In 2001, he was diagnosed with cancer; his recovery
forced him to reduce his political activities. In 2006, his
popularity took a major blow when he introduced legislation
calling for a halt to unemployment benefits for graduating
students who did not immediately find work, precipitating
major demonstrations in front of his Labor Ministry and many
calls for his resignation. The legislation, however,
eventually passed and entered into law.


6. Octavie Modert: Modert, 36, was the first woman and
youngest person ever to become the government's

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secretary-general, and used this position to earn her place
as one of Juncker's closest advisors. She currently holds
the title of Secretary of State for Relations with
Parliament, Agriculture-Viticulture, Rural
Development-Culture, Higher Education and Research. Modert
is widely believed to have a promising political career in
front of her.


7. Viviane Reding: Reding is the current EU Commissioner
for Information Society and Media. Juncker has already
announced that Reding, 58, will remain in her position as
Luxembourg's EU Commissioner, provided the CSV remains the
senior coalition partner following elections. Reding enjoys
high popularity in Luxembourg but is not considered a close
friend or confidante of Juncker.


8. Claude Wiseler: Wiseler, 49, formerly served as the
CSV's secretary-general and currently serves as Minister for
Public Works and Civil Service. He participated in the U.S.
International Visitor Program in 2003. His portfolio limits
his public profile, but he is considered a rising star in the
CSV.


9. Marie-Josee Jacobs: Jacobs, 59, is the Minister for
Family, Integration, and Equal Opportunities. She is the
most popular politician from the mostly-rural northern sector
of Luxembourg. Heavily conservative, Jacobs is closely
aligned with the politics of the Catholic Church. Jacobs's
position in government appears secure for as long as the CSV
remains in power.


10. Michel Wolter: Wolter previously served as Minister of
the Interior and currently is head of the CSV parliamentary
bloc. Wolter, now 46, was first elected to Parliament at age
21 - the youngest in Luxembourg's history - and was
considered the CSV wunderkind. Close to Juncker, Wolter was
once thought to be a possible successor. A poor showing in
the 2004 elections, however, put an end to this speculation.
Parliament's recent passage of controversial euthanasia
legislation was a blow to his party credentials, as he led
the CSV's opposition to the bill. Wolter has expressed
interest in the position of President of Parliament, but
continues to be an underdog for the job.


11. Laurent Mosar: Mosar is the leader of the CSV
opposition within Luxembourg City's DP-led government. He
serves concurrently as Vice President of the Parliament and
Chairman of Parliament's Financial Committee. Mosar, 51, had
a strong showing in 2004 elections and was offered a position
in the government. He instead chose to run for mayor of
Luxembourg city, when the CSV lost to the Democratic Party.


12. Lucien Thiel: Thiel, 66, currently serves in the
Parliament and was previously president of the Luxembourg
Banks and Bankers Association. If Juncker were to cede his
portfolio as Finance Minister, Thiel could find himself in
the government, perhaps in a shared capacity with Minster
Frieden for the Finance, Budget, and Treasury portfolios.


13. Jean-Louis Schiltz: Schiltz, 45, is Minister of
Defense, Minister for Development Cooperation and
Humanitarian Affairs and Minister of Communications. Schiltz
joined the government to the surprise of many in 2004, as
five higher vote getters were passed over. Schiltz is the
nephew of the Roman Catholic Vicar General of Luxembourg.
Schiltz has recently been seen as a politician on the rise
and is a possible competitor to Frieden as Juncker rides off
into the sunset. Critics claim that his management of the
Cooperation Ministry is an empty and shallow resume-enhancer,
with his work consisting simply of doling out money. He is
similarly criticized for his work as Defense Minister, with
many claiming that the long-awaited army reform his Ministry
oversees is simply implementing the hard work of his
predecessor, Luc Frieden.

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THE SOCIALISTS (LSAP): LUXEMBOURG'S JUNIOR COALITION PARTNER
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14. Jean Asselborn: Asselborn is Luxembourg's Deputy Prime
Minister and the Minister for Foreign Affairs and
Immigration. Asselborn, 60, led the Socialist Party's
renaissance in 2004 after five years in opposition. While
Asselborn is his country's top diplomat, he is not considered
by many to be the most diplomatic. His lack of finesse and
subtlety, however, is compensated for by his stated vision of
traditional Luxembourgish values, including the future
welfare of society and solving the basic problems of common
people. Asselborn was previously mayor of the village of
Steinfort (population of 5,000),succeeding to the position
following his father's death. Asselborn is ambitious. Were
his party to somehow score a major victory and assume the
senior position of the next government, Asselborn would

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undoubtedly become Luxembourg's Prime Minister.


15. Jeannot Krecke: Krecke, 59, is the Minister of Economy
and Foreign Trade and the Minister of Sport. Krecke
represents the non-traditional wing of the Socialist Party,
not linked to the trade union movement. His free-market
views put him closer in line with those of Juncker's than his
party's. Thus, Krecke does not enjoy the same support from
the Socialists' historic stronghold in the industrial
southern district of Luxembourg. While considered a bit of
an outsider within his own party, Krecke manages his
relationship with party stalwarts very well, massaging his
relationship with leader Asselborn well enough to remain at
the top of the LSAP leaderboard.


16. Nicolas Schmit: Schmit is the Delegate Foreign Minister
for Foreign Affairs and Immigration. Schmit, 56, is a career
diplomat who served previously as Luxembourg Permanent
Representative to the United Nations. He developed a special
relationship with Juncker while serving in Brussels at the
European Union. Foreign Minister Asselborn's lack of foreign
policy experience led Juncker to create Schmit's current
portfolio preceding Luxembourg's turn as EU President in

2005. Schmit is the only member of government without an
electoral mandate.


17. Mars Di Bartolomeo: Di Bartolomeo, 57, is Luxembourg's
Minister of Health. Di Bartolomeo has been active in LSAP
politics since the 1970s and does not possess a university
degree. His popularity stems from his blunt and
unconventional positions. In the 2004 elections, he received
the greatest number of votes for any Socialist, even greater
than Asselborn.


18. Lucien Lux: Lux is the Minister of Environment and
Transport and began his political career by joining a trade
union closely associated with the LSAP. Lux, 53, managed the
LSAP's 2004 electoral campaign, thus earning a lot of the
credit for the Socialists' re-entry into government. In his
current capacity, Lux has spearheaded some unpopular reforms,
such as raising the excise tax on fuel and increasing taxes
on cars with high carbon dioxide emissions. This
unpopularity makes Lux one of the few members of government
whose position is possibly in jeopardy during these
elections. Facing a possible electoral defeat, Lux has
recently expressed interest in the directorship of the
Luxembourg National Railway Company, where he worked at
beginning of his career.


19. Alex Bodry: Bodry, 51, is the president of the LSAP and
formerly served as Luxembourg's Minister of Defense and
Minister of Environment, Energy, and Communications. Bodry
is widely considered the Socialists' number-two leader behind
Asselborn, often competing with Krecke for this status.
Bodry chose not to join the government in 2004 to remain
president of his party.


20. Lydia Mutsch: Mutsch, 40, is a member of Parliament and
mayor of Luxembourg's second-largest city, Esch-sur-Alzette.
She is the first female mayor of Esch and is considered an
up-and-comer in the LSAP. Mutsch is lobbying hard for a
position in government should her party remain a coalition
partner.

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THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP) - #1 IN THE OPPOSITION
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21. Claude Meisch: Meisch, 38, is the leader of the
opposition DP and is also mayor of Luxembourg's third-largest
city, Differdange. The DP staggered after losing five seats
in the 2004 elections and Meisch has been charged with
leading his party to a strong showing in these elections.
The task is a tall order. Meisch is considered by many to be
too young to compete against major heavyweights. The DP is
also entering these elections without longtime party
stalwarts and major vote getters Lydie Polfer, Charles
Goerens, and Henri Grethen.


22. Xavier Bettel: Bettel, 37, is a member of Parliament
and deputy mayor of Luxembourg City. Bettel is considered
one of the DP's Young Turks. As a lawyer, Bettel was known
for taking on difficult cases, mainly representing refugees
and immigrant detainees. In Parliament, he has crafted a
reputation of an "enfant terrible," frequently calling out
Ministers with pointed parliamentary questions. Bettel's
status as one of the DP's rising stars has been somewhat
hindered by his outspokenness. Bettel is openly homosexual.


23. Paul Helminger: Helminger, 69, is the mayor of
Luxembourg City. He is expected to retain his mayorship and
draw some votes for the DP, but is not a major player in
national politics.

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THE GREENS
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24. Francois Bausch: Bausch, 53, is the Green Party's
leading political figure. The Green Party won two seats in
the 2004 elections, and the party was widely seen as on the
rise. The Greens, however, were hit hard by the financial
crisis which has stalled their ascent. Bausch has openly
campaigned to be Luxembourg's first Green Foreign Minister -
his party must win enough seats, however, to enter the
coalition for that to happen.


25. Felix Braz: Braz, 43, is one of Luxembourg's first
successful politicians of Portuguese descent, a demographic
strongly represented in Luxembourg. Considered Bausch's
right hand, Braz hopes to bring an additional seat or two to
the Greens via his strong popularity in the country's
southern district.


26. Manuel Huss: Huss is a co-founder of Luxembourg's Green
Party. He is known for his strong opposition to the EU
Constitutional Treaty of 2005, an effort that was put to a
referendum and lost. Huss, 62, was co-author of the
controversial euthanasia legislation recently passed over CSV
opposition - considered a major political victory for Huss
and the Greens.

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COMMENT
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27. We do not expect any major shakeup to the governing
coalition on June 7. The CSV will almost undoubtedly remain
the senior partner of a coalition with the Socialists.
Juncker will remain as Prime Minister, extending his status
as longest-tenured head of government in Europe. Some
portfolios might be juggled, a few of the minor Cabinet
ministries may change leaders, but, on the whole, the makeup
of Luxembourg's next government does not look to change much
from the status quo. Some commentators have allowed for the
possibility of each of the opposition parties gaining one or
two seats. If that happens, there is the slim possibility
that the junior coalition partner could change. While
mathematically feasible, an outcome where all of the
opposition parties unite to form a coalition and oust the CSV
from power, is highly unlikely.
WAGNER