Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LUSAKA730
2009-10-19 15:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Lusaka
Cable title:  

ZAMBIAN BY-ELECTION MARRED BY VIOLENCE AND FRAUD

Tags:  PGOV KCOR PHUM ZA 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3672
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #0730/01 2921502
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 191502Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7363
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUSAKA 000730 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S JNAMDE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PHUM ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN BY-ELECTION MARRED BY VIOLENCE AND FRAUD

REF: A. LUSAKA 667

B. LUSAKA 700

C. LUSAKA 524

Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LUSAKA 000730

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S JNAMDE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PHUM ZA
SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN BY-ELECTION MARRED BY VIOLENCE AND FRAUD

REF: A. LUSAKA 667

B. LUSAKA 700

C. LUSAKA 524

Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The October 15 Kasama Central Member of Parliament
by-election in Zambia's Northern Province was marred by
Electoral Code of Conduct violations, violence, and rampant
fraud. Although opposition Patriotic Front (PF) candidate
Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba won in the heavily PF district by a
wide margin, the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy
(MMD) pulled out all the stops to wrest the seat from the PF
and send a message that it could defeat the opposition
PF-United Party for National Development pact on its own
turf. An unusually high level of violence between PF and MMD
supporters underscored the importance of this by-election as
parties ramp up to the 2011 general elections. The MMD used
its political clout, financial resources, and press control
to the fullest extent, while opposition parties employed
their fair share of dirty politicking. Multiple violations
of electoral conduct observed during the campaign, including
widespread voter fraud, violence, and excessive political
influence on the electoral process, indicated that both the
ruling MMD and opposition parties were willing to win at all
costs -- even at the expense of a free and fair election.
END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
ELECTION RESULTS - PF WINS BIG BUT MMD MAKES RURAL INROADS
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) PolOff witnessed a tense atmosphere filled with
political drama, violence, and rampant fraud during the
October 15 Kasama Central Member of Parliament (MP)
by-election in Zambia's Northern Province. Opposition
Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM)
defeated Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) candidate
Burton Mugala in a six-candidate field by a vote of 10,668 to
4,184 (72 to 28 percent). GBM replaces former MP Saviour
Chishimba, who quit the PF July 21 over a dispute with PF
leader Michael Sata, thereby vacating his seat.


3. (SBU) Although GBM won the by-election by a wide margin,
the ruling MMD pulled out all the stops to wrest the seat

from the PF and send the opposition PF-United Party for
National Development (UPND) pact a message that the MMD could
defeat it on its own turf. The MMD used its political clout,
financial resources, and press control to win votes,
especially in rural areas where it is traditionally stronger.
However, the MMD's efforts to win at all cost in Kasama
Central helped it chip away at a PF stronghold and fine tune
its strategy for winning outright in more competitive
regions.

--------------
VIOLENCE AND BLOODSHED
--------------


4. (C) An unusually high level of violence between PF and
MMD supporters underscored the importance of this by-election
as tension builds between the MMD and its biggest threat, the
PF-UPND pact, leading up to the 2011 presidential and
parliamentary elections. PolOff observed on the night of
October 14 in front of Kasama's central police station
several injured MMD supporters, a visibly shaken Minister of
Tourism Catherine Namugala, and Deputy Minister Gaston
Sichilima from the Office of the Vice President. Police
officials reported that PF supporters had stoned several MMD
supporters and destroyed a campaign vehicle when their
campaign procession entered a PF-dominated Kasama
neighborhood. The authorities implemented a curfew on the
eve of the election and dispatched armed police to apprehend
stoning suspects and maintain peace. Bonnie Tembo, executive
director of the elections-monitoring NGO Anti-Voter Apathy
Project (AVAP),stated that PF supporters attacked an MMD
operative October 10 with pepper spray for allegedly ripping
down PF campaign posters. He indicated that tensions were
exacerbated by the political and cultural clash between PF
insiders living in Kasama and MMD outsiders in Kasama
temporarily to bolster local party support.

--------------
ABUSE OF PUBLIC RESOURCES
--------------


LUSAKA 00000730 002 OF 004



5. (C) President Rupiah Banda visited Kasama October 10-12
accompanied by a gaggle of Cabinet ministers who campaigned
on behalf of the MMD candidate. Banda credited his
government with providing over Kwacha 1.6 billion (USD
325,000) in financial assistance for local development
projects, including upgrading a school, rehabilitating a
local road, building a bridge, and opening a rural health
clinic. Banda also announced that his government would
provide funding and seek investors to reopen the Kateshi
Coffee Plantation -- and with it, put over 200 residents back
to work. Banda asserted that his party's candidate, Mugala,
would "deliver to the people of Kasama" -- unlike his
opponent, who "wouldn't be allowed in the door of State
House," effectively threatening the population if they voted
for the opposition. Several of the projects Banda touted had
been completed several months before his visit. PolOff also
noted far more public workers refurbishing local streets
during the by-election than during his September visit to
Kasama (ref A).


6. (C) AVAP and Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP)
elections monitors noted multiple instances of attempted
vote-buying by MMD supporters. AVAP's Tembo and the press
confirmed that a crowd chased Minister of Commerce, Trade,
and Industry Felix Mutati and Minister of Health Kapembwa
Simbao from a local market October 13 after the ministers
attempted to buy voters' support for the MMD using money,
blankets, and mealie (corn) meal. AVAP's provincial
coordinator, Kelly Kashiwa, said that Mutati had offered
voters in the market Kwacha 100,000 (20 dollars) in exchange
for their voter cards -- an effort to prevent PF supporters
from voting (now and in 2011 as replacement voter ID cards
are hard to obtain). Kashiwa explained that MMD supporters
offered hippopotamus meat, mealie meal, blankets and soap to
voters at various locations in Kasama and required them to
sign a party membership list before receiving the bribes; he
backed up his contention with photographic evidence showing
government vehicles ladened with these items. Kashiwa told
PolOff that AVAP believes the Zambian Wildlife Administration
(ZAWA) illegally provided meat from its game stocks to MMD
leaders for political campaign purposes. PolOff spoke to an
MMD supporter parked next to a polling station offering
voters Kwacha 100,000 (20 dollars) to vote MMD. Some rural
residents solicited bribes from PolOff requesting payment for
having voted for the MMD.


7. (C) PolOff observed MMD supporters using government
vehicles to haul campaign supplies and transport voters
illegally to polling stations on election day. He noted that
although these vehicles sported non-GRZ license plates they
bore government markings. PolOff observed private vehicles
operated by opposition party supporters illegally
transporting voters to polling stations, and observed
political operatives buying fuel at a local fueling station
for taxis and minibuses to offer voters free rides to polling
stations. AVAP's Kashiwa affirmed that GRZ officials misused
public resources by using government vehicles and a
helicopter to transport Minister Mutati, Minister Simbao,
Minister Namugala, Minister of Lands Peter Daka, Minister of
Energy Kenneth Konga, Minister of Works and Supply Mike
Mulongoti and their entourages to Kasama in support of the
MMD candidate.


8. (C) Despite constitutional prohibitions barring
indigenous leaders (chiefs) from participating in GRZ
politics, Banda and MMD enlisted political support from Bemba
Paramount Chief Chitimukulu and other chiefs in order to sway
voters in their villages to support the MMD candidate.
AVAP's Kashiwa said that the MMD offered chiefs
transportation and money to express public support for MMD
candidates and criticize the opposition.

--------------
PRESS CONTROL AND POLITICAL ATTACKS
--------------


9. (C) The MMD relied heavily on the government-controlled
media, particularly the Times of Zambia newspaper and Zambian
National Broadcasting Company (ZNBC) news channel, to talk up
the MMD candidate and discredit the opposition. AVAP's
Kashima noted that MMD supporters offered voters free copies
of the Times of Zambia and removed all available copies of
The Post -- an independent newspaper strongly critical of the
Banda administration (ref B) -- from local circulation in the
run-up to the election. MMD supporters also circulated a
fake copy of The Post featuring an article from a June 2008
edition of the Times of Zambia alleging that the PF candidate
beat his wife's sister. Politicians repeatedly violated the
electoral code of conduct by caricaturizing and attacking
their opponents. President Banda called the portly PF

LUSAKA 00000730 003 OF 004


candidate "a sack of mealie meal." PF leader Michael Sata
called Banda "the worst chief tribalist," a thinly veiled
reference to the MMD's attempt to discredit GBM as a racist
for urging voters to elect him "as a Bemba" and a "son of the
soil." In the aftermath of the MMD's electoral defeat, The
Post alleged that ZNBC fired news manager Kelly Chubili
October 14 for failing to broadcast coverage of Banda's
campaign in Kasama.

-------------- --
VOTER DISENFRANCHISEMENT AND VOTER CARD SCANDAL
-------------- --


10. (C) Voter disenfranchisement played a substantial role
in this by-election but probably did not affect the outcome.
The ECZ has not conducted voter registration since late 2005.
As a result, Zambians who turned 18 years of age since 2005
have been denied the right to vote, and, with 50 percent of
the population under age 18, this could be a substantial
number of people (ref C). However, in general the PF is
popular among Zambian youths and therefore probably would
have still won this by-election, but by a larger margin. ECZ
consultant Paul Anderson stated October 15 that widespread
voter disenfranchisement represented Zambia's biggest
obstacle to free and fair elections and that several thousand
Kasama residents -- up to one quarter of all eligible voters
-- may have been unable to vote. He said that Zambians face
the dual challenge of obtaining a National Registration Card
and a Voter Card prior to being added to voter lists.
Although the 2010 draft GRZ budget (septel) sets aside Kwacha
128.5 billion (USD 257,000) for Voter and National
Registration next year, Anderson stated that the funding is
only adequate for the ECZ to offer one 45-day voter
registration campaign.


11. (C) Much like the 2008 presidential by-election, AVAP,
FODEP and other elections-monitoring NGOs present at the
by-election observed that the Zambian electoral process did
not have significant occurrences of fraud when voters voted,
ballots were counted, and results announced. PolOff did not
observe voting irregularities at polling stations, nor during
a vote count at the Buseko polling station next to where PF
supporters stoned MMD opponents the night before.
Politicians and government officials not authorized to enter
polling stations did so without consequences. PolOff
observed PF Member of Parliament and campaign manager Willie
Nsanda watching voting at Kasama's largest polling station
and the PF candidate, GBM, watched the vote count at the
Buseko polling station.


12. (C) Voter mistrust that the ruling party would commit
fraud ran high. The ECZ piqued voters' distrust when it
issued hundreds of replacement voter cards at polling
stations, and voters at one polling station refused to vote
for an hour until ECZ officials withdrew the replacement
cards. MP Nsanda accused the ECZ October 15 of distributing
invalid voter cards because the cards were unsigned. ECZ
Deputy Director Mulenga confirmed that the cards were valid.
Nevertheless, the unsigned cards stirred accusations that the
GRZ used the ECZ to issue fake voter cards and/or replacement
cards only to MMD supporters, and several polling stations
barred voters from voting using these cards.

--------------
ELECTION CAMPAIGNS - ZAMBIAN STYLE
--------------


13. (SBU) All campaigns used traditional methods to support
their campaigns -- with a Zambian twist. Most campaigns
posted brightly colored campaign posters prominently
displaying candidates' profiles on walls and trees. Several
candidates had campaign vehicles plastered with campaign
paraphenalia and patriotic music representing their
candidate. Some supporters waved hand-made campaign banners,
and truckloads of supporters with bullhorns paraded in
processions throughout the city encouraging bystanders to
vote. The PF sprayed political graffiti extensively -- and
illegally -- on walls and across road surfaces telling locals
to "VOT GBM" (sic). The perpetual posting and ripping down
of campaign posters led to the October 13 jailing of a
business owner who allowed the PF to post campaign posters on
his property but ripped down posters pasted to his property
by MMD supporters.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


14. (C) Multiple violations of electoral conduct observed
during the by-election campaign, including widespread

LUSAKA 00000730 004 OF 004


vote-buying, violence, and excessive political influence on
the electoral process, indicated that both the ruling MMD and
opposition parties did anything they could legally or
illegally do to win -- even at the expense of a free and fair
election. The 2008 and 2009 by-elections demonstrated that
the ECZ lacks the capacity and/or will to enforce the
Electoral Code of Conduct, inspiring increasingly blatant
violations of it. Heavy campaigning by Banda and many
Cabinet ministers demonstrated that this by-election was a
key bellweather in the run-up to the 2011 national elections.
Although the PF-UPND pact held up and handily vanquished the
MMD, the MMD made some gains in a PF stronghold and can use
this as a roadmap for future elections. Distrust of the
Banda administration and President Banda's performance were
key issues during this by-election. Former president
Frederick Chiluba's support for the MMD did not play a major
role in this by-election , although the MMD did deploy him
for campaigning soon after his acquittal on criminal charges
of corruption. The solidarity of the the PF-UPND pact was
not a factor because the UPND has little support in Northern
Province. This by-election -- like many since the voters
list was last updated in 2005 -- was marred by many
violations, particularly voter disenfranchisement. Embassy
continues to engage the Electoral Commission of Zambia to
urge that the voter lists are updated in time for the
national elections and will continue to monitor Zambian
by-elections (there is another one November 19 in North West
Province). END COMMENT.
BOOTH