"YOUTH BULGE" STRAINS THE FABRIC OF ZAMBIAN SOCIETY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000524

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

AID FOR SARAH MOTEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI ZA
SUBJECT: "YOUTH BULGE" STRAINS THE FABRIC OF ZAMBIAN SOCIETY

REF: A. LUSAKA 507

B. LUSAKA 304


1. (SBU) Summary. Zambia's long-term vision for national
development -- to become a prosperous middle income nation by
2030 -- is beset by many challenges, including building
democratic institutions, creating and sustaining economic
growth, fighting corruption, and turning the tide of
HIV/AIDS. Adding to and complicating these challenges is
Zambia's overwhelmingly youthful demographic - over 55
percent of Zambia's population is under the age of 19. This
"youth bulge" strains public services in areas such as
education and health and challenges Zambia's traditional
hierarchical system that values age and experience over
youthful innovation. The flip side of these challenges is
the opportunity to shape a new generation of Zambians by
giving them the tools to claim a stake in the future of their
country. End summary.

Zambia: The New King of Pop(ulation)
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2. (SBU) Zambia's population in mid-2009 is estimated at
12.8 million, with an average fertility rate of 6.2 children
per woman (rural fertility rates are as high as 7.5 children
per woman, among the highest in the world). This fertility
rate has remained relatively constant over the past 15 years
and is high for the region - Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique and
Zimbabwe all have lower fertility rates. Because birth rates
have been so high for so long, Zambia has a young population.
According to an analysis prepared for the Ministry of
Finance's Social and Population Unit, over 55 percent of
Zambia's population is under the age of 19, with 46 percent
under the age of 15. By contrast, approximately 7 percent of
the population is aged 65 and above.


3. (SBU) This young population has serious consequences for
Zambian society in the near and long term. Zambia's child
dependency ratio, or the number of child dependents under the
age of 15 for every 100 adults of working age, is currently
about 93. This places a heavy burden on the working age
population, who must provide for their dependents, and it
constrains the provision of social services funded out of a
relatively small tax base. If fertility rates remain
unchanged, population models estimate that Zambia's
population could grow to 32.7 million by 2037.

Zambia's Children Are the Future: Teach Them Well...
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4. (U) A child in Zambia faces an uphill climb in his or her
attempt to become a productive member of society. Zambia's
education system is already under strain -- there were 2.9
million children in grades 1-7 in 2008, compared to 1.8
million in 2000. The GRZ announced free basic education
(grades 1-7) in 2002, which translated into large increases
in primary school enrollment. Net primary school enrollment
was officially 103 percent in 2008 (over 100 percent due to
probable undercounting in official population statistics),
but the quality of education is still an issue. Only
one-third of the students in grade 5 attain the minimum level
in English and math. A key factor in this low achievement is
the high pupil/teacher ration of 71:1 in lower grades. Most
classes are split into double or triple shifts, meaning that
pupils receive only three hours or less of instruction per
school day, leaving teachers overworked and fatigued.


5. (U) The rapid expansion of basic education has also
increased the demand for post-primary education, but supply
remains limited due to a lack of facilities and qualified
teachers. Net secondary school enrollment was only 24.6
percent in 2007. and drop out rates are high, especially for
girls. In 2009, about 58,000 pupils took the grade 12
examinations and almost 35,000 students passed. However, the
total enrollment for Zambia's three public universities is
less than 15,000 students, and the 286 government-certified
vocational training institutions and two-year skills training
institutions have an enrollment of only about 26,000. This
means that many high school graduates are unable to pursue
tertiary education, even in a vocational training
institution.

And Let Them Lead the Way?
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6. (U) Even if they manage to stay in school and graduate
with a degree or vocational diploma, young people face an
economy with few jobs to offer. An estimated 250,000 young

LUSAKA 00000524 002 OF 002


people (ages 15-25; 15 is the minimum working age) enter the
work force every year. The Central Statistical Office's last
announcement regarding the unemployment rate was in 2006,
when it said that 16 percent of Zambians aged 15 and older
were unable to find work. According to a 2005 Labour Force
survey, of the 4.1 million Zambians working, only 416,000 (10
percent) were employed in the formal sector, while 3.2
million (78 percent) were employed in the informal sector
(e.g., working as domestic employees or working in an
unregistered business). Most observers agree that youth
unemployment is much higher than the overall unemployment
rate, and underemployment is estimated at over 84 percent of
total employed persons.


7. (SBU) Zambian youth who may wish to turn their fight to
the political realm will find the going very hard. More
vehicles for the promotion of particular persons than
political agendas, Zambian political parties rely on the
traditional hierarchical social system that values age and
experience over youthful innovation. In the 2008
presidential elections, the two top vote-getters, Rupiah
Banda and Michael Sata, were both 71 years old -- and it
appears that both intend to run again in 2011. Most parties
have youth branches, but they are usually on display for
elections and conventions and conveniently ignored for much
of the rest of the time. Sam Zulu, the opposition Patriotic
Front's (PF) youth chairperson, was attacked by PF heavies
during a press conference at which he was decrying the
party's lack of internal democracy (ref A).


8. (SBU) In the scramble to carry out presidential elections
precipitated by the August 2008 death of president Levy
Mwanawasa within the constitutionally-mandated three months,
the GRZ decided that it did not have time to update voter
rolls and instead used lists from the 2006 elections. This
meant that any Zambian who had turned 18 since 2006 was
disenfranchised. Some experts estimate that up to 1.2
million young people were prevented from voting in a country
that has 3.9 million registered voters overall -- only 1.8
million of whom even voted in 2008.


9. (SBU) The 2011 elections now loom on the horizon, and the
GRZ's promises of a new voter registration drive have thus
far not panned out (ref B). The GRZ informed donors in March
that voter registration would not begin until 2010 because
the National Constitutional Conference (NCC) was considering
increasing the number of parliamentary constituencies, which
in turn would require changes to voting district boundaries.
The NCC was scheduled to complete its deliberations in July
of 2009, but it now looks like final recommendations and
determinations will not be made until later this year.
Unless issuance of voter and national identification cards
(both required in order to vote) begins soon, up to 2.8
million youth could be disenfranchised in the 2011 elections.


The Role of Assistance: My Future's So Bright...
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10. (SBU) Zambia's youth bulge represents the greatest
threat to Zambia's historic stability. Addressing this youth
bulge problem clearly presents formidable challenges to a
country that already has plenty on its plate. With a "rising
tide lifts all boats" logic, U.S. Mission Zambia's focus on
economic growth as its number one assistance and policy
priority has a certain relevance to the overwhelmingly young
Zambian public. However, more can be done to address the
particular stresses to the Zambian system imposed by a
largely youthful population. New programs could address
tertiary, technical and vocational education needs and
assistance to the GRZ in preparing the 2011 elections,
particularly with regard to registering, educating and
motivating the youth electorate.
BOOTH