OPPOSITION IMPEACHMENT CARD LIKELY A LOSING HAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 000523


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION IMPEACHMENT CARD LIKELY A LOSING HAND

REF: A. LUSAKA 471

B. LUSAKA 405


Classified By: Classified By: Ambbassador Donald E. Booth for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (SBU) On July 22, Zambian opposition parties the
Patriotic Front (PF) and United Party for National
Development (UPND) officially notified the Speaker of the
National Assembly of their intent to file a motion to impeach
President Rupiah Banda. The notice accuses President Banda
of various breaches of the national constitution (so far
unspecified) from the time he served as acting president,
following the incapacitation of former President Levy
Mwanawasa in August 2008, to the present. The official
submission follows weeks of front page posturing by the PF
and UPND. President Banda responded to the anticipated move,
saying "Do I look like someone who is scared of their plans?"
He continued by saying that the democratic process should be
allowed to play out. President Banda's bravado is not
without merit; by the numbers, he has little reason to fear
impeachment.


2. (SBU) The odds are against opposition Members of
Parliament (MPs) passing the impeachment measure. In order
to move the motion forward, the petitioners must gather 53
signatures before the matter can be brought to the full
assembly. While the PF and UPND combined hold 62 seats in
Parliament, 18 PF members have publicly stated they will not
support any impeachment call. These reluctant members,
dubbed "rebels" by PF leader Michael Sata, would ensure the
motion's failure. Any support from smaller opposition
parties, such as the United Liberal Party (ULP),Forum for
Democracy and Development (FDD),United National Independence
Party (UNIP),or National Democratic Focus (NDF) is unlikely,
as the smaller opposition groups (a total of 10 seats) are
all aligned with President Banda's ruling Movement for
Multi-party Democracy (MMD) for one reason or another.
Claims that some MMD members are backing the petition are so
far unsubstantiated.


3. (SBU) Should the petitioners gather the requisite 53
signatures, the Speaker of the National Assembly must table
the motion within seven days. All 157 MPs would be allowed
to debate the measure and a two-thirds majority vote would
then send the issue to the Chief Justice of the Supreme
Court. A tribunal would be convened at which point specific
charges against the President would be levied. After hearing
from witnesses, should the tribunal find sufficient evidence
of breaches of the constitution, the matter would be once
again referred to the National Assembly. In the unlikely
event the motion reached this point, however, President Banda
could take comfort in his ruling MMD numbers: 65 MPs are
either cabinet ministers or deputy ministers. Voting to
impeach the president would be tantamount to removing
themselves from office as well. If three-quarters of MPs
agreed, the President would be impeached and required to
leave office within three days.


4. (C) Comment: The impeachment push, while perhaps designed
to keep President Banda reeling from weeks of bad press, is a
politically risky move. First, it allows President Banda to
reclaim the high-ground and appear as a stalwart defender of
the democratic process, an image that has been battered
recently (ref A). Handing such a potent political issue back
over to the ruling party seems counterproductive. Secondly,
the motion is an early test to the real unity of the PF-UPND
pact ahead of the 2011 national elections (ref B). With 18
members already voicing opposition to the move, the
short-term gain in publicity could have deleterious long-term
political effects on the fledgling partnership. End Comment.


BOOTH