COMESA LEADERS REFLECT ON REGIONAL ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 000489

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2019
TAGS: PREL XA ZU XW
SUBJECT: COMESA LEADERS REFLECT ON REGIONAL ISSUES

REF: LUSAKA 426

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Booth for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. During a July 6 meeting with Ambassador
Booth, Secretary General Sindiso Ngwenya provided some
insights on the recently concluded African Union (AU) and
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
summits. He clarified the AU position on the International
Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of Sudanese President Bashir,
discussed the improbability of COMESA-led military
intervention in Madagascar, and reflected on Mugabe's conduct
during the COMESA meetings in Victoria Falls. He relayed
Zimbabwean President Mugabe's suggestion that he would step
down from office in the near future. Ngwenya provided August
31, 2010, as a tentative date for the next COMESA summit in
Mbabane. He also conveyed Congolese President Kabila's
concerns about DR Congo's capacity to host a Southern African
Development Community (SADC) summit in 2009. The Ambassador
and Ngwenya also discussed a host of other issues related to
bilateral trade and investment as well as areas for
U.S.-COMESA engagement (reported septel). End Summary.

African Union Summit


2. (C) Ngwenya, who attended the recent AU summit, described
the meetings as a success, noting that with so many member
countries it is remarkable that the AU leaders managed to
agree on anything at all. In his view, the noteworthy
outcomes included expanding the AU's mandate to include
multilateral trade negotiations as well as regional defense
issues. Ngwenya said that numerous African delegates were
keen to establish a single AU military force, rather than a
United Nations-type arrangement consisting of distinct
African troops participating under the AU flag. Ngwenya said
the African leaders devoted much discussion to agricultural
growth and food security. Regarding the International
Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of Bashir, Ngwenya clarified
that the AU does not oppose the principal of an ICC trial,
but calls for a 12-month moratorium, pending Sudanese peace
talks. He said that Botswana had never sought the floor to
speak on the AU position vis-a-vis the AU indictment of
Bashir and was thus surprised by GOB public statements
post-summit.

COMESA Summit


3. (C) Despite the COMESA Authority's ardent attention to
Madagascar during the June COMESA summit (reftel) and
Al-Bashir's defiant remarks during the closing session,
Ngwenya argued that economic issues dominated the greater
part of the agenda and insisted that COMESA does not intend
to expand its role in regional political and security issues.
However, he opined that governance systems are still fragile
within the region and Africa is about to enter a phase of
increased regional instability due to international and
intra-national conflicts. According to Ngwenya, COMESA heads
of state had opted against a military intervention in
Madagascar on the basis that COMESA members are already
addressing security issues in Somalia and on the assumption
that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is
better poised to address the issue. Ngwenya acknowledged the
difficulty of arriving at a joint COMESA position on
Madagascar, particularly given Qadhafi's invitation to
Rajoelina to make a state visit (an invitation that he said
Senegal had also extended).


4. (C) Ngwenya expressed some satisfaction at Mugabe's
"relaxed" demeanor during the COMESA summit in Zimbabwe
(during which Mugabe took up the COMESA Authority chair).
Instead of lashing out at the international community, as he
had done at previous summits, Mugabe maintained surprisingly
officious and even-tempered conduct throughout the meetings.
(At one point, Mugabe described Victoria Falls as the ideal
location for launching the customs union because it is a
"place for lovers.") Ngwenya attributed Mugabe's good
behavior primarily to the Zimbabwean leader's contentment
with the government of national unity and the easing up of
domestic political pressures. Ngwenya opined that Mugabe,
because he no longer feels cornered, is responding more
rationally to matters at hand. He also noted that Mugabe had
commented during one of the closed door meetings that he
intends to step down from office soon in order to leave the
political arena open to the "new generation."

SADC Summit


5. (C) Ngwenya said that the next COMESA summit will be held
in Mbabane from August 31 - September 1, 2010 at which point
King Mswati III will take on the COMESA Authority
chairmanship. Although these dates appear to conflict with
SADC's annual heads of state meetings ("SADC Ordinary Summit
of Heads of State"),Ngwenya said that President Kabila, who
was slated to assume the SADC chair in August 2009, conveyed
to him that DR Congo is ill prepared to host a SADC summit
this year, let alone to begin evaluating the timing for a
2010 SADC event. According to Ngwenya, Kabila recommended
that COMESA go ahead with an August summit and SADC
subsequently "will work around it." Note: If the COMESA
Authority convenes on August 31, technical level meetings,
ministerials, and the business forum may commence in Mbabane
as early as August 21.

BOOTH