DEFENSE MINISTER TAKES OFFENSE AND RESIGNS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000481

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER TAKES OFFENSE AND RESIGNS FROM
OFFICE

REF: A. LUSAKA 405

B. LUSAKA 471

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Booth for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. On July 7, Zambian Minister of Defense
George Mpombo publicly announced his resignation from his
cabinet position. The Movement for Multi-party Democracy
(MMD) parliamentarian also announced that he would step down
from his position as energy chair on the MMD's National
Executive Committee (NEC). In his public statements, Mpombo
criticized the NEC for its efforts to exclude other MMD
hopefuls from seeking the MMD nomination for the 2011
presidential election and encouraged others to run against
President Banda. Although the development is not likely to
result in instability or unrest, it further weakens President
Banda's fragile political base within his party. According
to some sources, Mpombo's views are shared by many within the
MMD party. Although he is not a political heavy-weight, his
actions could serve to strengthen the newly allied opposition
parties if MMD leadership does not respond adequately. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Tensions heightened within the ruling MMD following
Mpombo's resignation announcement on July 7. Although he
attributed his resignation decision to personal reasons and a
desire to focus more intently on environmental issues (namely
the deforestation of his constituency in the Copperbelt),
Mpombo subsequently told journalists that he did not approve
of the recent NEC decision to present President Banda as the
sole MMD presidential candidate in the 2011 elections (Ref
B). Mpombo added that the NEC should allow others to contest
the nomination in the projected 2010 MMD party convention.
MMD insiders suggest that the development is a manifestation
of the ill will that has lingered between Mpombo and
President Banda ever since Mpombo asserted himself as acting
President immediately following news of former President
Mwanawasa's incapacitation (based on written authorization
that he had received prior to Mwanawasa's departure for the
AU Summit in Egypt). Vice President Banda, who had been
attending a funeral in Zimbabwe, returned to Zambia
immediately and commandeered the presidential mantle from
Mpombo. (When Mpombo subsequently made claims to be the
acting Vice President, he was at once refuted by then
Government Spokesperson Mike Mulongoti.)


3. (C) Mpombo's resignation is not likely to contribute to
political instability or domestic unrest. Neither are there
any indications that military officers or rank and file
military personnel will consider Mpombo's departure from
government as a cue for insubordination or insurrection. On
numerous occassions, the Army Chief of Staff has publicly
stated that the military is committed to maintaining the rule
of law in Zambia, and by all accounts appears prepared to
continue abiding by that policy. According to Ministry of
Transport Permanent Secretary Dominic Sichinga, who was with
President Banda when the story broke, the announcement caught
the president entirely off guard. The development poses a
dilemma to the President, however, who must decide whether or
not to expel Mpombo from the MMD party -- a move that would
necessitate a parliamentary by-election within ninety days in
a province that emerged in 2006 as an opposition stronghold.
(Note: Mpombo's constituency, Kafulafuta, however, was one
of the few regions within the Copperbelt that did not side
with Patriotic Front leader Michael Sata in the 2006 and 2008
elections; nevertheless Sata's popularity in Kafulafuta may
have increased in 2009 as a result of rising unemployment.
End Note.)


4. (C) In his press conference, Mpombo also announced that
he would exit politics in 2011: "I won't be around. This is
the process of encouraging young people to come forward to
learn the ropes of politics." According to Embassy sources,
however, including senior MMD member Sebastian Kopulande,
Mpombo continues to harbor political ambitions. Kopulande
added that many within the party share Mpombo's frustrations,
although they have chosen to work for change from within.
Other MMD sources suggest that Mpombo may align himself with
MMD aspirants such as former Finance Minister Magande Ng'andu
or former First Lady Maureen Mwanawasa. If expelled from
MMD, however, Mpombo might change political parties
altogether, thereby strengthening the newly established
opposition alliance (Ref A) between the Patriotic Front and
the United Party for National Development (UPND). President
Banda will have to weigh this danger against the cost of
allowing Mpombo to preserve his MMD membership, something
that might undercut the president's efforts to consolidate
power within his party.


5. (C) A credible contact within the MMD suggested that
Mpombo's announcement conveniently coincides (and cleverly
preempts) an alleged GRZ corruption investigation of his

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involvement in a shady 2003 oil procurement deal as then
Minister of Energy. According to this line of reasoning,
if/when the corruption scandal goes public, Mpombo will be
able to claim that the GRZ is lashing out at him in political
retaliation for his political insubordination. In the event
that there is some truth to these rumors, it may be near
impossible to ascertain either the validity of the purported
investigation or the veracity of Mpombo's potential
counter-claim given the seemingly increasing propensity (of
the government and civil society alike) to use the
anti-corruption campaign as but another front of a broader
political confrontation.


6. (C) Comment: Mpombo, who lost as many parliamentary
elections as he had won between 1978 - 2006 and who was
dismissed as energy minister in 2003 following a national
fuel shortage, cannot boast a large following. Still,
Mpombo's current degree of influence is disproportionate to
his political support base, given President Banda's siege
mentality in the face of recent corruption scandals, slowing
economic growth, and national strikes. The MMD's best choice
may be to resist the urge to retaliate and to let Mpombo slip
quietly off the headlines. Meanwhile, the NEC might consider
and publicly invite others to contest the party nomination in
the spirit of political pluralism that formed the basis for
MMD's establishment almost twenty years ago, lest Mpombo's
resignation herald increased disarray and disenchantment
within MMD's ranks.

BOOTH