PARTIES GEAR UP EARLY FOR 2011 ELECTIONS

UNCLAS LUSAKA 000471

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: PARTIES GEAR UP EARLY FOR 2011 ELECTIONS

REF: LUSAKA 405


1. (SBU) Summary: In an unusual move, the National Executive
Committee (NEC) of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy
(MMD) endorsed President Rupiah Banda as its 2011 presidential
nominee on June 14. The endorsement is out of sync with previous
candidate selection procedures, which typically began at a national
convention held the year prior to elections. Some observers
suggested that the move was a direct response to the
recently-announced Patriotic Front (PF)/United Party for National
Development (UPND) electoral alliance but, whatever the motive,
Banda clearly is moving to consolidate his tenuous and unsure hold
over the party. End Summary.


2. (U) Members of the MMD's NEC emerged from a meeting on June 14 to
announce that committee members had selected Rupiah Banda as the
party's candidate for a planned convention in 2010 and for the
presidential elections in 2011. Such an announcement is a departure
from previous practice, in which would-be contenders for the party
nomination announced themselves in advance of the party convention
and a secret ballot of party members was held to choose the nominee.
While MMD spokesperson (and Banda supporter) Benny Tetamashimba
told reporters that others could present themselves as potential
nominees at the next convention, he also said that the NEC had
decided to present Banda as the "sole" candidate at the convention.
He also alleged that all the NEC members who stood against Banda in
the lead-up to 2008's presidential election (including former
Minister of Finance Ng'andu Magande) supported Banda's candidature
for 2011.


3. (SBU) Leaders of the nine provincial MMD executive committees
wasted no time in endorsing Banda's nomination. Press reports from
independent newspaper "The Post" suggest that the MMD timed its
maneuver to counter the recent electoral alliance between the UPND
and the PF (reftel). In a national address on June 25, President
Banda spent some time discrediting the alliance as well as the UPND
and PF leadership, despite claiming to be unconcerned about their
electoral prospects. PF spokesperson Given Lubinda shared with The
Post newspaper that the PF-UPND pact holds promise as similar pacts
formed in 1963 and 1972 elections proved victorious. (Note: In the
2008 presidential by-election, PF's Michael Sata and UPND's Hakainde
Hichilema pulled in a total of 58 percent of the vote. End Note.)



4. (SBU) Comment: The preemptive strike by Banda and his proxies in
the NEC is an attempt to enforce party discipline and unity, which
the beleaguered president needs as he faces corruption scandals and
an increasingly skeptical public. As the PF/UPND alliance positions
itself with a "unifying Zambians" message, the pressure on the MMD
increases, and Banda's pressure tactics may backfire by causing
presidential hopefuls, within and outside Banda's cabinet, to
abandon the MMD ship. The lack of openness in the candidate
selection process may also reinforce some criticism that the MMD
leadership is far removed from the concerns of its grass-roots
members, as well as criticism that a party that was founded on the
concept of political pluralism exhibits little democratic openness
in the selection of its representatives.

BOOTH