C-AL8-02739: FOLLOW-UP ON DIVISIONS WITHIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 000014


FOR INR/I AND AF/S

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2033
TAGS: PINR PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: C-AL8-02739: FOLLOW-UP ON DIVISIONS WITHIN
ZAMBIA'S RULING PARTY

REF: A. 08 STATE 134360

B. 08 LUSAKA 1135

Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth, reasons 1.4, b/d.


1. (C) Embassy Lusaka is gratified to hear that Ref B was
useful to Washington readers and is pleased to provide the
follow-up information requested in Ref A.


2. (C) For the moment there appears to be no overt breakaway
factions within the MMD. This may be in part because the
avoidance of a party leadership race, as described in Ref B,
allows would-be contenders to keep their cards close to their
chest for the time being. If a party leadership race were
held, those contenders might be forced to show their hand or
risk being unable to run in the 2011 presidential election in
Banda's place (if he decides not to run). Breakaway
aspirations may also be stifled by the widely held knowledge
that the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) will be a
significant threat to the MMD in 2011; therefore, breaking up
the party would almost ensure its demise as well as that of
the breakaway faction. MMD's strength lies in its name's
historical reputation for initiating multiparty democracy,
and many rural voters remain loyal to the name. Sata has had
little success attracting the loyalty of these rural voters
away from MMD; breakaway factions would face a similar
problem.


3. (C) It is worth recalling that PF leader Michael Sata
broke ranks with the MMD when former President Frederick
Chiluba chose Levy Mwanawasa as his successor over Sata.
Sata's party is a personality-based one, virtually devoid of
any policy platform, with a sprinkle of protest votes adding
to its growth in popularity. MMDers wanting to leave the
party to pursue a party leadership position (and potentially
the presidency) are unlikely to want to serve in Sata's
shadow. Other opposition parties (e.g., UPND, Heritage,
UNIP) are too marginal to attract those with an eye on the
presidential brass ring.


4. (C) Surprisingly, PF and UPND have failed to capitalize on
the MMD's misbehavior, partly because of their own structural
weaknesses. PF is wracked by its own internal divisions, as
Sata has threatened to go to the High Court if the speaker of
Parliament does not, in the next seven days, unseat 16 PF
Members of Parliament who defied Sata's order to avoid
participation in the ongoing National Constitutional
Conference. (Comment: Interestingly, if the NCC were to
proceed with recommending the president be elected by a 50
percent plus one majority, Sata could be the main beneficiary
if PF and UPND could combine forces against MMD.) Sata
unilaterally expelled the MPs from PF, which under the
Zambian constitution would require by-elections in their
constituencies (i.e. there is no crossing the aisle in
Zambian parliamentary procedure). In addition to that legal
case, the PF's request for a recount of the October 30
elections will heard by the High Court January 21,
undoubtedly keeping PF lawyers quite busy. UPND leader
Hichilema has all but disappeared from the scene since the
elections and is experiencing internal party discord as well
-- the party's secretary general (a longtime personal friend
of Hichilema's) was recently expelled for allegedly defaming
Hichilema.


5. (C) The MMD internal divisions will undoubtedly be a
distraction to Banda's administration, particularly while he
tries to consolidate his power. Currently, we do not see any
specific issues that will be sacrificed for political
gameplaying, but the distraction will certainly impede
general progress in a bureaucracy that struggles with
productivity during the best of times.


BOOTH