IN MUDDLE-SPEAK, DOS SANTOS OPTS PUBLICLY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000524


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019
TAGS: AO PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: IN MUDDLE-SPEAK, DOS SANTOS OPTS PUBLICLY FOR
INDIRECT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

REF: LUANDA 523

Classified By: Ambassador Dan Mozena for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) During an August 20, 2009 press conference with
visiting South African President Jacob Zuma (Ref A),Angolan
President Jose Eduardo dos Santos declared that "we advocate
an (presidential) election by universal direct suffrage in
which the president is the head of a list, with the support
of his party, in which the election can then be formalized by
the National Assembly. But this is not a typical indirect
election." Quoted verbatim, the President's statement
featured prominently in August 21 reports by the state media,
but by the next day, the issue had dropped off the scope of
the government media. According to one well placed Embassy
contact, state media received an instruction from the
Presidency to drop the issue.


2. (C) Even before the President's declaration, opposition
leaders have been pressing for early presidential elections.
During an August 19 meeting with StaffDel Peter Quaranto,
UNITA President Isaias Samakuva stressed his party's position
that direct presidential elections must be held soonest, as
required by the Constitution. When queried as to whether
delayed elections might be better for the opposition as
voters increasingly lose faith in the government's ability to
deliver, Samakuva underscored that his party's position was
simply that the Constitution should be followed and that
direct presidential elections should be held accordingly.


3. (C) During his August 10 meeting with visiting Secretary
Clinton, Dos Santos said his "personal preference" was for
indirect presidential elections as in South Africa. He said
he did not know whether his views would prevail in the
ongoing constitution-drafting exercise.


4. (C) Comment: Dos Santos's public reference to the
president's name heading a party list suggests that he
proposes to combine presidential and legislative elections,
with the other names on the "list" being those of party
candidates for parliament. Under this scenario, voters would
be "directly" electing the party, whose leader would become
the president of the country if the party won the elections
and whose candidates as designated on the "list" would become
members of parliament to the extent of their voter support.
This approach would preclude independent candidates from
running for the office. To the extent that this
interpretation reflects the President's actual thinking on
the matter, the President's concept of "direct" presidential
elections is quite different from how that approach has
routinely been defined by both ruling and opposition party
players. If the President is proposing combining
presidential and parliamentary elections, he may possibly be
considering postponing presidential elections until 2012,
when the next legislative elections are scheduled.


MOZENA