SURVEY TAKES ANGOLA'S POLITICAL PULSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000279

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID AO
SUBJECT: SURVEY TAKES ANGOLA'S POLITICAL PULSE

REF: LUANDA 257

Classified By: Charge Jeff Hawkins, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: On April 18, International Republican
Institute (IRI) Country Officer Lazar Antonic presented to
post the results of a USAID-funded public opinion survey that
was conducted in seven of Angola's 18 provinces from December
2008 to January 2009. The survey showed that solid
majorities of Angolans believe the country is headed in the
right direction, favor additional elections at the local,
regional, and presidential levels, and consider the level of
corruption in Angola to be either "high" or "very high."
Angolans rated jobs, poverty, education, health and
sanitation, and water as their five greatest daily concerns.
While the survey shows broad public support for the MPLA, the
MPLA's election-day tally was higher than the tally of
self-reported votes by a statistically-significant 10 percent
margin. End summary.


2. (C) Public sections of the report indicated that, in
general, Angolans are happy with the direction in which the
country is going and credit the provincial and national
governments for improvements in infrastructure and quality of
life. Angolans rated jobs, poverty, education, health and
sanitation, and water as their five greatest daily concerns.
Of survey participants who voted, 70.4% of those who voted
reported confidence that the elections were free and fair,
with the remaining voters citing last-minute changes by the
National Electoral Commission, unequal opportunities for
parties to campaign, and doubts that votes were counted
fairly as their main complaints. The confidential section of
the survey suggested that Angolans have favorable views of
President dos Santos (81.2%),the GRA (83.2%),and provincial
government (81.6%). Fewer respondents had favorable views of
opposition figures like UNITA President Isaias Samakuva
(42.5%) and other MPLA figures.


3. (C) Confidential sections of the survey results showed a
small--but statistically significant--10 percent difference
between self-reported votes and the results of September 2008
legislative elections. Some 72.3% said they voted for the
MPLA in the survey, whereas the MPLA won 81.6% at the
national level on election day. Antonic (protect) told
PolOff that this information was limited to the confidential
section of the report, because IRI prohibits the public
release of data from which the validity of election results
could be inferred. As a policy, Antonic said, IRI does not
release the SPSS files or raw data from which the survey
reports are generated. Interpreting the difference between
the election day tally and the albeit non-nationally
representative survey results, Antonic said that the survey
data supported the contention that the voter registration
process was fair to members of all parties, but it
suggested--in line with complaints from the opposition and
civil society--some votes may have been lost on election day
as ballots were disqualified and later during the closed
tabulation process.


4. (C) A full 69.8% of Angolans surveyed believed that
presidential elections should take place in 2009. The
participants favored democratization in other areas by wide
margins, including the direct election of governors and
municipal administrators (67.9%) and public broadcast of
sessions of parliament (77.3%). A full 79.2% indicated that
the level of corruption in Angola is either high or very high
and named the national government (23.9%),citizens (13.8%),
the president (12.9%),and provincial governments (11.8%) as
those responsible for the problem. An even half of Angolans
surveyed held a favorable opinion of the United States and
only 22.6% held unfavorable opinions.


5. (C) Comment: The survey results suggest opportunities for
U.S. engagement in several areas. Given strong feelings about
corruption, there may be more space for a public dialogue on
transparency and reduction of petit corruption than
previously believed. The statistically significant
difference in self-reported votes and the election tally,
though not strictly comparable, is also a strong reason to
push for more transparency in future elections.
Additionally, strong support for public broadcast of sessions
of parliament could provide an effective avenue for post
advocacy with the National Assembly. Post believes that in
Angola's restricted media environment, such broadcasts would
offer a unique opportunity to increase the visibility and
weight of the opposition. End comment.
HAWKINS