ELECTIONS IN 2009 UNLIKELY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000257

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AO
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS IN 2009 UNLIKELY

(U) Classified by Charge Jeff Hawkins, Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) Summary. Staffdel Marsh's conversations with
parliamentary, ruling party, and opposition figures suggest
presidential elections in 2009 are highly unlikely.
Constitutional reform, which President dos Santos has said
must precede these elections, is progressing slowly, with
even the most optimistic scenarios calling for several more
months of drafting and public consultations. The MPLA's
Secretary General implied his party may currently favor
direct elections, although UNITA President Samakuva believes
the President has already decided on indirect elections. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Senior Professional Staff Member of the House
Committee on Foreign Affairs Dr. Pearl-Alice Marsh visited
Angola April 9-12. During her visit, she had a series of
conversations regarding the constitutional revision process
and prospects for elections. Post will report other elements
of her visit septel.


3. (C) In a meeting with Dr. Marsh and Charge, acting
President of the National Assembly Joana Lima Ramos stressed
revision of the constitution would have to precede elections.
She said that Angola's parliamentary leadership sought an
inclusive process, one that brought in the opposition and the
Angolan people. The National Assembly Commission charged
with revising the constitution had been widened to include
all five parliamentary groups (MPLA - 35 members, UNITA - 6
members, PRS - 2 members, FNLA - 1 member, Nova Democracia -
1 member). Each of these parties was currently in the
process of preparing its own proposal for revision of the
constitution. These proposals are due on May 31. At the
same time, the National Assembly was receiving proposals from
the general public. Following the deadline, the Commission
will reconcile these proposals and then begin a series of
public discussions on the constitution. Ramos was unable to
guess how long this process would take, saying only that the
"timeframe will be defined by the work to be done." When
pressed, she opined that the process "definitely wouldn't
take as long as two years."


4. (C) In a subsequent meeting, MPLA Secretary General Dino
Matross was unequivocal about prospects for elections in

2009. "Essentially impossible this year," he said.
Secretary for International Affairs Paolo Jorge, presumably
more attuned to his international audience, interrupted the
Secretary General to say that elections were "not likely" in

2009. Like Ramos, Matross stressed the importance of
completing the constitutional revision process prior to
elections. Matross thought the National Assembly Commission
working on the revisions would have a draft in August or
September, after which some two or three months of public
discussion would follow. Charge noted that the MPLA had just
announced that its party congress would take place in
December, which presumably meant that the party would not
designate its presidential candidate until then. Matross
confirmed that was the case.


5. (C) Interestingly, Matross suggested that the MPLA might
favor direct elections. (Note: There has been considerable
debate, apparently even within the MPLA, regarding whether
elections should be direct or indirect.) He said the MPLA
was currently considering the South African, French,
Portuguese, and American models and that no final decision
had been made. Matross noted, however, that the party's last
proposal for constitutional revision, set aside after
parliamentary elections last year, incorporated direct
elections.


6. (C) In a discussion over breakfast at the Charge's
residence, UNITA President Isaias Samakuva bemoaned the
connection between elections and completion of constitutional
revisions and complained that the National Assembly was
seriously behind schedule in the revision process. Samakuva
said the President's insistence the constitution be revised
before elections took place was "not what was promised" and
that he didn't understand "why they are now linked." UNITA
had been willing to accept initial delays in deadlines for
submission of drafts by the various parliamentary groups,
Samakuva said, but the work was going very slowly. Samakuva
was sure there would be no presidential elections this year,
and was uncertain about prospects for elections in 2010. In
accordance with UNITA's constitution, which designates the
party president as UNITA's presidential candidate, Samakuva
said, "if elections take place, I'm the candidate."


7. (C) Samakuva was convinced the new constitution would
provide for indirect elections. "The linkage of the revision
of the constitution to the elections can only be justified by
the President's desire to see the method of elections
changed," he insisted. Samakuva believed that President dos

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Santos was determined to have indirect elections but that
there was opposition to this approach on the part of some
MPLA leaders. Samakuva suggested one possible explanation
for dos Santos' interest in indirect elections was that he
was buying time to groom a successor. Indirect elections
would obviously favor the new MPLA candidate, given the
party's overwhelming parliamentary majority, and leave dos
Santos in control of the process. When pressed on who that
new candidate might be, Samakuva mentioned National Assembly
President (and former PM) Fernando da Piedade Dias dos
Santos, aka "Nando," as a strong possibility. Within UNITA,
Samakuva said, there was debate about whether Angola should
have a presidential or semi-presidential system. Some argued
that Angola needed a strong executive, others that a prime
minister would help counterbalance the weight of a dos Santos
presidency.


8. (C) Comment. Given these and other discussions, the
chances of Angola holding presidential elections this year
are slim. At this point, we do not share Samakuva's
conviction that elections will be indirect. The MPLA's
public messages on the issue are mixed, and it is entirely
possible that dos Santos - if he plans to run - seeks the
legitimacy that direct elections would confer. Our democracy
and governance assistance strategy for FY09 focuses on
elements - civil society, free media, parliament - that can
help level the playing field for elections in 2010 or
thereafter. End Comment.
HAWKINS