Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09LONDON261
2009-01-29 12:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy London
Cable title:  

CAMERON SHUFFLES CONSERVATIVE'S FRONT-BENCH,

Tags:  PGOV PREL EU UK 
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PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #0261/01 0291245
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291245Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1228
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 000261 

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPART FOR INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EU UK
SUBJECT: CAMERON SHUFFLES CONSERVATIVE'S FRONT-BENCH,
BRINGS IN PRO-EUROPE OUTCAST

Classified By: Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 000261

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPART FOR INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EU UK
SUBJECT: CAMERON SHUFFLES CONSERVATIVE'S FRONT-BENCH,
BRINGS IN PRO-EUROPE OUTCAST

Classified By: Richard Mills, reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C/NF) Summary. Conservative Leader David Cameron shook
up his party with a shadow cabinet reshuffle on January 19.
Cameron wanted to strengthen his front-bench team and sharpen
its attacks on the Labour Government, as well address a
Labour argument that still has traction with UK voters -- the
Conservatives are too inexperienced to be in charge during a
time of economic crisis. Although the Tories lead in the
polls -- and in the last week have seen the Brown poll
"bounce" fade -- the Tories have yet to develop a coherent
attack on Labour's handling of the credit crunch and the
polls find UK voters still not ready to trust the Tories'
economic team and policies. To address that public
perception, Cameron brought back into front-line politics one
of the Conservative Party's "heavy-hitters," Ken Clarke. The
Pro-European Clarke is one of the best known and most
controversial figures within British politics, often credited
with putting the UK back on the road to recovery following
the 1993 recession and a figure intended to reassure UK
voters on the "economic bona fides of Conservative policies,"
as Philip HAMMOND, Shadow Chief Treasury Secretary told us
this week.


2. (C/NF) Summary and comment con't. Clarke is, however,
loathed by the right-wing eurosceptics within his own party,
who believe his pro-European views will split them over the
issue of "Europe" once again. In an attempt to deflect such
criticism, Clarke last week assured his party that he
accepted its settled view on Europe and said he would not
oppose David Cameron on the matter. Privately, Cameron is
said to know that Clarke's appointment is a "risk," as he is
aware that Labour Ministers will use every opportunity to
highlight Clarke's euro-friendly stance and try to provoke
Tory splits on the issue, especially ahead of the European
elections in June. Cameron was willing to take the risk of
igniting Tory divisions over Europe, however, in order to
give the Conservatives credibility on the economy, the issue
that will decide the next general election. End summary.


Who's In - Who's Out?
--------------


3. (SBU) Since David Cameron became leader of the
Conservative Party in 2005, his shadow cabinet has remained
relatively stable, with few changes to the original line-up.
While an early general election in 2009 remain a question
mark (ref),especially with the opinion polls moving against
Labour in recent days, Cameron announced in the last week
changes that would give him "the strongest possible shadow
cabinet" for a general election. Of his cabinet changes, he
said, the Conservatives "have combined fresh thinking with
experience, hope and change with stability and common sense."



4. (C/NF) Chris Grayling becomes the party's new Shadow Home
Secretary, replacing Dominic Grieve who, in turn, moves
sideways to take the Shadow Justice Ministry portfolio.
Grayling has gained a formidable reputation as one of the
party's best attack dogs, often targeting his Labour
opponents with deadly precision. His talents, widely
overlooked in his last role as Work and Pensions Shadow
Minister, will be better placed in the key area of Home
Affairs where some of the Brown government's most domestic
controversial legislation lies. Grieve, who had only moved
into the Home Affairs role in June 2008 and is touted by
several conservative contacts as a rising Tory figure, is
said to be relieved to have been moved from a portfolio where
he is widely recognized as having failed to make a mark.
"Friends of Grieve," including Tory MP Brooks Newmark, have
let it be known to the press and Embassy that Grieve is
pleased to be moving into the Shadow Justice Ministry
portfolio which, he believes, will be better suited to his
expertise as a former barrister. Theresa May, the Shadow
leader of the House of Commons, succeeds Grieve as the new
Shadow Minister for Work and Pensions.


5. (C/NF) Eric Pickles, most often described as a "gruff
no-nonsense" politician from the "working-class" of North
England, moves into the high profile role of Party Chairman.
Pickles' selection was undoubtedly Cameron's attempt to
combat a public and UK media perception that his cabinet is
packed with privileged Eton-educated MPs. Pickles is still
somewhat unknown outside his party but is credited with
masterminding the Party's stunning victory over Labour in the
Glenrothes by-election in 2008, when the Conservatives won
what had been one of Labour safest parliamentary seats. Alan
Duncan became Shadow leader of the House of Commons to make
way for Ken Clarke to take up the Shadow Business Secretary

LONDON 00000261 002 OF 003


position.

Ken Clarke - The Pro-Europe Conservative
--------------


6. (C) Clarke's return to Cameron's front bench is the big
news of the reshuffle. He returns as Shadow Secretary of
State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, where
his opposite number is the newly re-appointed Peter
Mandelson. Clarke, who served under both Margaret Thatcher
and John Major's administrations was Chancellor until the
Conservatives lost power in 1997. He is widely credited with
setting the UK back on the road to recovery from the 1998
recession, leaving a legacy for the incoming Labour
Government to inherit which, 12 years on, Clarke says Gordon
Brown squandered. Cameron is said to have thought long and
hard before asking Clarke to return to front-line politics.
In Clarke's favor, he is one of the few politicians of any
party who resonates with the public -- he is seen to speak a
language they understand and they get what he is talking
about. He has the common touch and the public likes his
beer-drinking, cigar-smoking, jazz-loving image. Added to
that, Clarke is highly experienced and has been adept at
spotting flaws in the Labour Government's economic policy as
it attempts to handle the credit crunch.


7. (C) Clarke's popularity with the public, however, does not
extend to within his own party. Clarke is famously
pro-European and favors the single EU currency, a stance
which has put him at odds with his own party for most of his
career. During the 1990s, the internal party divisions over
Europe and European integration were so great that then-Prime
Minister, John Major, issued a "Back me or sack me" cry to
the Eurosceptics as the party nearly split in two. Clarke's
support of the EU is often thought to be the single factor
which has prevented him from winning the party's leadership
in the multiple times he has stood for the top position: 1997
(Hague won); 2001 (Iain Duncan Smith won); and 2005 (Cameron
won).

Clarke's Return Addresses a Political Need
--------------


8. (C/NF) Several Tory contacts have told Embassy that
Cameron's decision to put Clarke on his front bench was a
"calculated political decision" designed to address Labour's
argument that Cameron and his team are too inexperienced to
govern at a time of economic crisis. Despite the Tories'
lead in the polls, these same polls continue to find no
corresponding increase in UK voters' confidence that
Cameron's policies and economic team can lead the UK out of
recession. The Tories are aware that Brown's jibes at their
lack of experience resonant with the public -- in part
because it is true. As Philip HAMMOND, the Tory Shadow Chief
Secretary to the Treasury, pointed out to emboffs this week,
before Clarke's addition to the Shadow Cabinet, only one
member of Cameron's front bench, William Hague, had ever
served in a governing cabinet (A political pollster who has
worked for the Labour party told poloff a preferred Labour
tactic with its own polling groups is to show voters a
picture of Cameron and his Shadow Chancellor - the young
looking George Osborne -- and ask whether they really can be
trusted to restore the economy; Labour finds this always
produces the desired negative answer). HAMMOND said Clarke's
appointment gave the Tories an experienced figure who can
reassure voters on the "bona fides of conservative economic
policies;" credibility strengthened by the public perception
Clarke was the last Chancellor to guide the UK out of a
recession. Brooks Newmark, another Tory MP with ties to the
Cameron inner circle, told Poloff that Clarke's return was
the signal the Tories "were gearing up to have an
election-fighting front bench in place." Newmark
acknowledged that having Clarke in place to fight an election
was a good idea, "although whether he could actually serve in
a governing cabinet" was "another question" that would have
to be considered by Clarke and Cameron, given Clarke's views
on the EU and the Euro.


9. (C/NF) While Clarke's support of the EU remains on the
back burner for the moment, Labour will likely try to cause
divisions between Clarke and his colleagues. The Tories will
face pressure over Europe as the European elections in June
get closer, and if the Lisbon Treaty is ratified by Ireland.
Clarke has already said he is in favor of the Lisbon Treaty
and that he would support it without the requirement for a
referendum -- a position that puts him at odds with Cameron.
Publicly, the Conservatives are trying to maintain a united
front. Clarke has said he will not seek to change the
party's line on Europe and will accept collective cabinet

LONDON 00000261 003 OF 003


responsibility. Many within the party, however, have
expressed concern at Clarke's return. Lord Tebbit decried
Clarke as "lazy", and other Tories fear he will be dogged by
questions over Europe every time he is interviewed. Labour
will no doubt be poring over Ken Clarke's list of outside
directorships, including his position as deputy director of
British-American Tobacco in the hopes they can embarrass the
Tories.

Comment
--------------


10. (C/NF) Cameron's rehabilitation of Clarke is a gamble,
much in the same way that Gordon Brown's reappointment of
Peter Mandelson was. Both men have caused problems for their
party leaders in the past, but are recognized as
extraordinary politicians with proven track records.
Mandelson's return paid off for Brown -- his bounce in the
polls in late autumn is in part credited to Mandelson's
return and skill at delivering the Labour message. Cameron
has tried to address the concerns of his eurosceptic party --
and dilute Clarke's influence -- by promoting the eurosceptic
MP, Mark Francois, to the position of Shadow Europe Minister
and elevating that role to the shadow cabinet. And that may
work. As one Conservative front bencher said: "Ken's views
on Europe are frankly irrelevant. There are around 190
eurosceptic Tory MPs and six pro-European Tory MPs, one of
whom is Ken."

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