SOMALIA/HOA: UK MINISTERS REVIEWING POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001635

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - FIERST AND WALSH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2019
TAGS: PREL EAID PHUM MCAP MASS PINR XW SO KE ER
ET, UK
SUBJECT: SOMALIA/HOA: UK MINISTERS REVIEWING POLICY

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Daniel McNicholas, reasons 1.
4 (b/d).


1. (C/NF) Summary. Newly arrived Foreign Office East Africa
and Great Lakes Director Jonathan Allen previewed July 14 for
Poloff the discussions UK officials have teed up for
ministers to have on Somalia at their July 21 Cabinet
sub-committee on Africa meeting. Disrupting the al-Shabaab
network is the UK's top priority in Somalia, and supporting
the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) appears at present
the best way to do that, Allen said. While the security
track of TFG support is important, so is the political track.
The international community equally needs to support it and
ensure the TFG is working to bring as many groups as possible
into the fold, as well as delivering services to Somalis.
Undermining al-Shabaab is going to require more coordination,
and Allen welcomes more discussions with the USG about how to
do that, especially in ways that "don't have our fingerprints
on it." The UK is exploring ways to support the regions of
Somaliland and Puntland more. As with Cyprus, Allen said, "a
lot of work can be done without state recognition." The
problem with piracy is the risk versus reward ratio, and the
international community needs to do more to make piracy more
risky, especially for Puntlanders who are "up to their
eyeballs in it." On Eritrea, Allen said the UK is "happy to
join the consensus," though caveated that he doesn't have
much hope in engagement and thinks it is time to pursue
sanctions on named individuals who are providing support for
al-Shabaab. Kenya is important, he said, and the U.S. and UK
should coordinate more on levers to push reform, including
visa bans and other mechanisms. End summary.


2. (C/NF) Coming from a Home Office Counter-Terrorism office,
newly arrived Foreign Office East Africa and Great Lakes
Director Jonathan Allen previewed July 14 for Poloff the
discussions UK officials have teed up for ministers to have
on Somalia at their July 21 Cabinet sub-committee on Africa
meeting. Allen said the Foreign Office (FCO) has been
working to develop a more comprehensive Somalia strategy,
which Ministers will consider, along with some short-term
mechanisms of support for the TFG. Allen replaced James
Tansley, who is now head of the FCO's Pan-Africa Policy Unit
and had only been in the East Africa and Great Lakes Director
position for a couple of months, because, as one HMG official
put it, "Tansley was well out of his depth."

Somalia: Disrupting al-Shabaab,
TFG Needs to Deliver Services
--------------


3. (C/NF) Disrupting the al-Shabaab network is the UK's top
priority in Somalia, Allen said, and it seems that the TFG
and its security forces, as supported by AMISOM, are the best
way to do that. However, undermining al-Shabbaab is going to
require more coordination, and Allen welcomes more
discussions with the USG about how to do that, especially in
ways that "don't have our fingerprints on it."


4. (C/NF) At the same time, Allen said, the international
community needs to pursue the political track. If the TFG is
going to survive, it needs to begin offering relevant
services to Somalis and focusing on its own legitimacy. It
should also be working to bring as many Somali groups in the
country and in the Diaspora into the fold as possible.
Citing an example where the TFG is off-base in its focus,
Allen said a TFG minister recently officially requested UK
assistance in bolstering the TFG's maritime law capacity to
lodge a legal complaint against the Kenyan Government over
fishing rights and maritime jurisdiction. Allen acknowledge
that was important, but that the TFG should be focused on
security and basic service delivery at this point.

Somalia: Working With, But Not Recognizing
The Regions
--------------


5. (C/NF) Turning to Somaliland and Puntland, Allen said the
UK plans to "thicken" the UK's assistance to the regions,
especially Somaliland in order to support the pockets of
security that exist. Allen said it would also be important
for Somaliland to demonstrate its commitment to democracy
through elections, a message which the UK Government has been
communicating to the Somaliland Government. Allen, having
previously worked on Cyprus issues, noted that "a lot of work
can be done without state recognition," and the UK will
encourage the Somaliland Government to broaden its discussion
with the international community beyond the issue of

LONDON 00001635 002 OF 002


recognition. Allen acknowledged difficulty in supporting the
Puntland authorities because some many are involved in
piracy. He suggested the problem with piracy is the risk
versus reward ratio, and the international community needs to
do more to make piracy more risky, especially for Puntlanders
who are "up to their eyeballs in it."

Eritrea: Unhelpful, What Next? Sanctions?
--------------


6. (C/NF) Allen acknowledged the "unhelpful" role that
Eritrea is playing in Somalia and in the region. He noted,
however, that he was not sure that Eritrea's support for
al-Shabaab, while helpful, had been "critically important" to
al-Shabaab's fight in Somalia. He said the UK is "happy to
join the consensus" on how the international community
decides to deal with Eritrea and is skeptical of recent
Italian attempts for greater engagement. While it is fine to
see if engagement works, Allen said he thinks it is time to
pursue sanctions for named individuals who are involved in
Eritrea's support to al-Shabaab, but through a graduated
approach that would give the Eritrean's another opportunity
to re-engage before full sanction regimes are put in place.
He also said, unlike others in the UK Government, that he did
not think resolution of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border dispute
would meaningfully reduce Eritrea's level of nefarious
activity in Somalia or the region.

Kenya: Important to Push Reform
--------------


7. (C/NF) Allen said that Kenya was important and the UK
Government wanted to coordinate more on pushing reform
forward, possibly even through coordinated visa/travel bans.
He would like to work more to see what levers are available
and work together to convince some of the EU's more reticent
states, like Italy, that sticks may be needed.



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