AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PORTUGUESE PRESIDENT -

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 000306

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR PO
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH PORTUGUESE PRESIDENT -
ISAF DECISION EXPECTED SOON

Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR RICHARD REITER, FOR REASONS 1.4 B, D.


1. (C) Ambassador Stephenson met with Portuguese President
Anibal Cavaco Silva on June 8, a farewell lunch prior to the
Ambassador's departure from post. The discussion focused
primarily on the economy and on Portugal's consideration of
further deployments to Afghanistan. On the economy, Cavaco
Silva, an economics professor by background, commented that
while Portugal is suffering less than other EU countries from
the current crisis, the downturn hit at a particularly
inopportune moment, just as Portugal was turning a corner and
showing growth. This has dashed public expectations and
contributed to a pessimism that is perhaps deeper than events
would warrant, but which presents a particular challenge for
the current government.

DECISION ON ISAF DEPLOYMENT EXPECTED SOON
--------------

2. (C) At the NATO Summit in April, Prime Minister Socrates
pledged that Portugal would "double its presence" in
Afghanistan. Since then we have heard informed speculation
that the GOP intends to meet this commitment by deploying a
QRF infantry company to Helmand province. This is the unit
that Portugal withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2008,
largely at Cavaco Silva's insistence. The President
confirmed to the Ambassador that the QRF is, indeed, the
contribution under discussion and the proposal will go to the
National Defense Council as early as next week for approval.


3. (C) The National Defense Council is an advisory body
chaired by the President that includes representatives of the
government, uniformed services, and parliament, and thus
serves as a forum for Socrates and his ruling Socialists to
sit down with Cavaco Silva and his opposition Social
Democrats to reach bipartisan agreement. Cavaco Silva
pointed out that in recent months the Social Democrats have
suffered from internal divisions that would have complicated
the search for consensus. The President's remark that "it is
very important" to get agreement among the Social Democrats
and then between the two main parties echoes comments we have
heard him make previously and underlines his commitment to
sharing the responsibility. He said he had been waiting
until after the European Parliament elections of June 7 to
call the Council meeting. This strategy may prove successful
given that the Social Democrats did well in the EP voting,
which may help remedy their internal splits and thus
facilitate agreement on Afghanistan.


4. (C) Cavaco Silva noted that the decision on the QRF is
partly political (with national elections slated for this
autumn),but it is also based on resource availability. In
addition to the current deployment in Afghanistan, there are
Portuguese contingents in Bosnia, Kosovo, Lebanon, and Timor
Leste. Adding an infantry company to Afghanistan represents
a real strain for the Portuguese budget.

COMMENT
--------------

5. (C) President Cavaco Silva seems generally supportive of
the QRF deployment to Afghanistan, saying he is "hopeful" it
will be approved soon. But he takes seriously his
non-partisan duties as President and Commander-in-chief and
will chair a serious discussion in the National Defense
Council. If that body approves the proposal next week, the
two main parties would share responsibility and could not
point fingers in the run-up to autumn elections. In any
event, the actual deployment would likely not occur until
early 2010.


For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal,
please see our Intelink site:

http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal
STEPHENSON