Garcia's Peace Initiative Gathering Steam

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001635

SIPDIS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/09
TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PBTS PE
SUBJECT: Garcia's Peace Initiative Gathering Steam

REF: LIMA 1398; LIMA 1611

CLASSIFIED BY: P. Michael McKinley, Ambassador, STATE, AMB; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: MFA interlocutors have told us that President
Garcia's recent "Peace and Security Cooperation" initiative is a
serious effort to promote regional stability and contain defense
costs at a time of global economic distress. Garcia's proposals
seek to prevent an arms race in the region, reduce military
expenditures, formalize a non-aggression pact and field a regional
defense force ("Fuerza Sudamericana de Paz e Intervencion"). The
GOP has promoted this initiative at various international fora and
dispatched high-level envoys (cabinet ministers) to elicit support
in other countries in the region. After softening some of the
earlier language on the non-aggression pact, Government
representatives say that results thus far are encouraging, and that
the GOP is considering approaching the Organization of American
States (OAS) to consolidate support. We believe that Peru's peace
efforts could be favorably considered as a way to improve
meaningful dialogue and transparency and reduce tensions among
Latin American countries, regardless of how they perceive their
relationship with the OAS, the Union of South American Nations
(UNASUR) or the Bolivarian Alliance for the People of Our America
(ALBA). End Summary.



Arguments for Peace and Security

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2. (C) President Garcia first voiced his concerns about increased
tensions and arms purchases in the region during the August 2009
meeting of (UNASUR) Presidents in Bariloche, that was convoked to
discuss the implications of the U.S./Colombian Defense Cooperation
Agreement (DCA). At that time, Garcia stated that, "no integration
process in the world has been successful if it does not involve
binding commitments." He noted the "paradox" that there are now
more disagreements among South American countries than there were
five years ago when UNASUR was created to forge a shared regional
vision.




3. (C) On September 15, Garcia sent a letter to Foreign and
Defense Ministers attending the UNASUR follow-up Ministerial in
Quito, reiterating his concerns about increased arms purchases, and
asserting that the region has recently spent some $23 billion on
new weapons purchases. He argued that that amount of money could
have been used instead to lift 30 million South Americans out of
poverty. Garcia warned that if the trend continued unchecked over
the next five years, South American countries will spend another
$35 billion on new armaments -- which will mean that total defense
expenditures for the region could reach $200 billion. He also
invited the ministers to study his ideas on a South American
Defense Force to deter external aggression and to consider a
non-aggression pact. (Note: Afterwards, one of our MFA
interlocutors suggested that the non-aggression pact idea could be
useful for gaining wider regional acceptance for the U.S./Colombian
DCA, since it differentiates between the escalating strategic arms
purchases and enhancing security operations against internal
threats. End Note.)



Regional Lobbying

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4. (C) Peruvian delegations pushing Garcia's initiatives are being
received at the highest levels by governments in the region.
Peruvian cabinet ministers, including the Ministers of Production,
Commerce, Women and Social Affairs, Environment and Justice have
been sent as envoys to lobby for the peace proposals in Argentina,
Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil and Colombia so far.
(Venezuela was invited to dialogue in Garcia's letter to the Quito
ministerial, but our MFA contacts said its response is not yet

clear.) At the same time, Garcia himself has seized many of his
public speaking engagements as opportunities to reaffirm the
importance of the disarmament message and reiterate his
government's commitment to the initiative.




5. (C) On October 19, Garcia sent a letter to the President of
Ecuador (UNASUR's Pro-tempore President) Rafael Correa, refining
his ideas on preventing an arms race in the region, reducing
military expenditures (a proposed 3% cut in military operating
budgets and a 15% reduction in arms purchases),forging a peace and
non-aggression pact and fielding a regional defense force, dubbed
"Fuerza Sudamericana de Paz e Intervencion". Our MFA interlocutors
said they believed that Correa is receptive to the proposals,
following the positive results produced at the third bilateral
ministerial held in Piura last October 22 (ref B). On November 6-7,
the local media reported positive results following the November 5
meeting between Correa and Peruvian Trade Minister Martin Perez,
and quoted the Ecuadorian President as saying that, "We agree
totally with these visions and initiatives, and with pleasure will
submit them to UNASUR."



International Efforts

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5. (U) In his 28 September speech to the 64th UNGA, FM Garcia
Belaunde rhetorically asked, "How can we explain to our people
that, in the middle of one of the most serious world economic
recessions and with more than one billion in extreme poverty in the
world, countries dedicate more than $1,464 billion to military
expenditures in 2008?" He added that over the last five years
countries in Latin America had spent a total of $156 billion on
military expenditures. Garcia Belaunde then reiterated Peru's
proposals to establish a non-aggression pact, to guarantee a "zone
of Peace" in South America, and to create a "peacekeeping and
intervention force" to dissuade conflict in the region.




6. (U) After his October meeting with Garcia, Spain's Secretary of
State for Iberoamercia, Juan Pablo Laiglesia, referred to the peace
proposals by saying that, "It is a timely initiative...and has
sufficient merit to be included in the regional agenda... "
Laiglesia noted that, while Spain is not a member of UNASUR, "There
are other forums and other areas that we share as an Iberoamerican
community... in which this approach is going to have our echo and
support."



Other Reactions

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7. (C) MFA contacts have told us that most countries in the region
are reacting positively to the "spirit" of Garcia's proposals, with
some reservations by Chile, Venezuela and Brazil. PM Velaquez
Quesquen indicated that Peru would be seeking OAS support for the
peace proposals, after the regional diplomatic blitz was concluded.
A local daily quoted Minister of Production Mercedes Araoz as
saying that Argentine President Cristina Fernandez is "in favor" of
the Peruvian proposal to reduce arms expenditures in order to
generate confidence in the region and invest in social issues.
"Argentina wants a peaceful and safe environment and does not spend
too much on arms. They want to allocate their resources to the
fight against poverty and fully share this vision." Araoz said.




8. (C) Chilean Embassy contacts have told us they fully support
the notion of transparency in arms expenditures, but are less
enthusiastic about spending limits and believe that Peru's

lecturing about the importance of social spending is somewhat
ironic given Chile's relatively effective performance in this area.
Our Brazilian Embassy contact said that Brazil is open to the
proposals, though "they are already largely covered by the OAS.
Besides, Brazil's arms purchase are only making up for years of
lack of investment in military's equipment."




9. (C) Bolivian Ambassador to Peru Franz Solano is quoted as
saying that his country is open to proposals for curbing arms
spending in Latin America, "Clearly, Bolivia's doors are open to
discuss this proposal, and others, within a framework of peace,
brotherhood, and the development of our peoples." A contact at the
Bolivian Embassy told us that during the October 16-17 Seventh
Summit Meeting of ALBA in Cochabamba, President Evo Morales was
decidedly lukewarm about Hugo Chavez's idea for ALBA to establish
itself as a formal military alliance to confront "threats from the
(U.S.) empire". Morales reportedly said that that such a proposal
should first be "carefully studied" by the militaries of the member
states.



COMMENT:

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10. (C) While still embryonic, Garcia's peace proposals appear
well-intentioned, serious and worthy of consideration. They also
reinforce our perception that Peru may be turning the corner in
recognizing that Shining Path terrorists and drug trafficking
interests in the VRAE represent more of a clear and present danger
to national interests than does the hypothetical "conventional"
threat from Chile - its historical military-strategic rival.
Peru's peace initiatives, if handled properly, can improve
meaningful dialogue and transparency, which could lead to reduced
tensions among Latin American countries, be they members of the
OAS, UNASUR or ALBA. Given all of the recent saber-rattling, arms
purchases, Iranian and Russian influences in the region, Garcia's
peace proposal is not such a bad thing. End Comment.
MCKINLEY