GABON: ALI BONGO INSTALLATION, IMPLICATIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LIBREVILLE 000460

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C FOR LISA KORTE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL GB EK
SUBJECT: GABON: ALI BONGO INSTALLATION, IMPLICATIONS FOR
THE FUTURE

Classified By: Charge Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ali Bongo Ondimba, the son of former
President Omar Bongo who ruled Gabon for 41 years, will be
formally inaugurated as the country's fourth president on
October 16. The Constitutional Court's validation of the
August 30 election results on October 11 and Bongo's
installation ends weeks of political uncertainty. Bongo
faces formidable challenges as he takes office, including
from within his own ruling party as some of his moves may
challenge the "party barons," who had become accustomed to
being paid off by his father. Personal interests continue to
divide the opposition and its failure to effectively
challenge the election results have further damaged its
ability to represent the public. Serious economic and social
problems are besetting the country, with the most pressing
being a country-wide strike by public school teachers and
other civil servants. Probably the most glaring change for
Gabon will be in a decline of its regional influence. Bongo,
the son, does not have the same long-established
international and regional credentials as a peacemaker as his
father, but Gabon's likely election to a U.N. Security
Council seat will keep Libreville on the international radar.
Bongo publically claims to be a reformer, reportedly
interested in changing the way things are done in Gabon, but
he will have an uphill battle against a deeply entrenched and
corrupt system, the one that produced him. This cable
examines the implication of Ali Bongo's presidency. End
Summary.

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For the Government
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2. (C) Bongo's claims to be a reformer will be put to the
test as he names his new cabinet. Embassy contacts say that
he is looking to reduce the number of ministers and delegated
ministers from 47 to a more reasonable 30. If this were to
occur, it will involve significant restructuring of the
ministries to combine services. Under his father, Omar
Bongo, ministerial posts were plumb patronage and handed out
to as a reward for loyalty. Ali Bongo's goal of reducing the
number of ministers in the government will meet with pushback
and reluctance by a number of "barons" and those who will
lose influence in the government. Similarly, many civil
servants, who have been out of work for months due to
strikes, will demand to keep their jobs and wages even as
their ministries are eliminated.

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For the PDG
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3. (C) Ali Bongo overcame resistance within the ruling party
to climb into the Presidency. Now, as the clear leader of
the ruling Democratic Party of Gabon (PDG),he has a number
of PDG "barons" to thank for their support and funding during
his presidential bid. Bongo's promises to be a reformer will
be difficult to reconcile as he is forced to reward the old
guard of the PDG for standing with him over other factions.
His brother-in-law, Foreign Minister Paul Tongui, may be
particularly difficult to handle. He has done little as
Foreign Minister and may want to be rewarded with a
financially juicier post, such as a return to Finance
Minister.

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For the Opposition
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4. (C) Bongo's installation means that the fragmented and
increasingly marginalized opposition will have to come up
with new strategies to compete with the ruling party and to
have a role in governance. The initial declaration of Ali
Bongo's victory galvanized the opposition for a few days, but
continuing animosity and rivalries between the two most
important names, Pierre Mamboundou and Andre Mba Obame, make
it even more difficult for Bongo to effectively incorporate
opposition perspectives. With Ali Bongo's investiture
imminent, Embassy contacts say that Bongo has begun to reach
out to Pierre Mamboundou in the hope of bringing him into the
new government. If this occurs, the opposition will lose
much of its legitimacy with the people and force Mba Obame,
widely viewed as a government collaborator, into the sole
leadership role in the years of rebuilding that will come.
The opposition's ability to create a popular base on which to
build for the future has been severely circumscribed.

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For Gabon
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5. (C) When Ali Bongo is sworn in as president, he faces a
number of significant social challenges. Most pressing is
the current teachers' strike. Despite the school year
beginning on October 5 no classes in Gabonese public schools
have been held. Public school teachers are demanding the
government address their concerns about insufficient pay and
poor working conditions. In the past, former President Omar
Bongo directly intervened with the teachers to help negotiate
a resolution, and as a result the Teachers' Union has refused
to negotiate with the Ministry of Education. The Gabonese
public will look the teachers' strike as one of the first
major tests of the Ali Bongo government. Besides teachers,
health care workers and large portions of the civil service
have also threatened to go on strike in the coming months.


6. (C) The Government of Gabon has serious financial issues
to tackle under Ali Bongo. Since the death of Omar Bongo
there has been significant capital flight from the country.
Embassy contacts say that the lavish funeral for Omar Bongo,
the hurried presidential election, and the need to finance
Ali Bongo's presidential bid have taxed the financial
reserves of the country and the Bongo family. Cash-strapped,
the new president will find it difficult to negotiate
effectively with the unions, which will expect a pay off to
end the strikes.

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For the Region
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7. (C) At the time of his death Omar Bongo was seen as one of
Africa's senior statesman and a stabilizing force in regional
politics. Ali Bongo does not have the gravitas or longevity
of his father, which will greatly reduce Gabon's regional
role until Ali Bongo can prove himself as a regional player.
One area for improvement could involve neighboring Equatorial
Guinea. Under Omar Bongo,s regime, relations between the
two countries were tense and marred by accusations of coup
attempts against one another. Gabon is worried that
Equatorial Guinea, which now holds the largest reserves in
the Bank of the Central African States (BEAC),will conspire
to oust the current bank governor, a Gabonese who is
embroiled in a financial scandal. An improved relationship
between Equatorial Guinea and Gabon is likely one of Bongo,s
early foreign relations goals.


8. (C) Gabon is an uncontested candidate to assume a
non-permanent member seat on the U.N. Security Council
representing Africa. Neither Ali Bongo nor the government
have made any comments on their goals for their tenure on the
security council, but it does provide a useful stage by which
Bongo can improve his standing with other leaders on the
continent.

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For the United States
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9. (C) Bongo's next steps are critical if he is to overcome
doubts about his election following his father's death. He
has a delicate balancing act, given the country's potentially
precarious economic and social predicaments. His ability to
negotiate and bring disparate actors on board will dictate
the extent to which his government will respect human rights
and the rule of law. Stay tuned.
FITZGIBBON